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Long Island

[The Housing Helix Podcast] Brooklyn, Queens, Long Island & Hamptons/North Fork

October 26, 2009 | 11:00 pm | Podcasts |


Last week we released market reports for both Long Island and Hamptons/North Fork. The week before we released reports for Brooklyn and Queens. I meant to release short podcast recaps on all four reports (combined into pairs) when they were released but alas, was behind schedule.

But here they are.

Brooklyn & Queens Market Overview podcast

[click for podcast]



Long Island and Hamptons/North Fork podcast

[click for podcast]




The Housing Helix Podcast Archive

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.



[Sales Surge] 3Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

October 22, 2009 | 12:01 am | | Reports |

The 3Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Charts with the 3Q 2009 are available online.

An excerpt

…There were 5,603 sales in the third quarter, 41.6% higher than the 3,956 sales of the second quarter and 5.9% higher than the same period last year. This was the first time in the past year the number of sales increased over the prior year quarter and only the second time since the beginning of 2007. The increase in the number of sales resulted in a decline in listing inventory. There were 22,170 listings, 5.6% below the 24,485 listings in the prior quarter and 10.1% below the 24,672 listings in the same period last year. The increase in the number of sales and the corresponding decline in listing inventory played a role in the stabilization of the price indicators over the summer…

Download 3Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview



[Going Long] 2Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

July 23, 2009 | 12:05 am | | Reports |

The 2Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 2Q 2009 data and a series of updated charts are available.

Press coverage can be found here.

An excerpt

…The number of sales fell 32.7% to 3,956 from 5,874 in the same period last year, but increased 37.7% from the prior quarter total of 2,872. The jump in number of sales was consistent with seasonal trends as this period has averaged a 35.4% increase in the prior 5 years. Seasonality in this market statistic is much more pronounced than in New York City, where the trend has been historically more moderate. The number of properties for sale peaked in the second quarter of 2008 at 26,145 properties. Listing inventory has fallen 10.2% from the peak to 23,485 properties, in contrast to the decline in the number of sales over the same period. The monthly absorption rate — the number of months it would take to sell all existing inventory at the current pace of sales — was 17.8 months, up from 13.4 months in the same period last year. Many sellers are opting to list properties when they determine the market has improved…

Download 2Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview

UPDATE: Listen to the podcast

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[The Housing Helix Podcast] Hamptons/North Fork + Long Island Market Overviews 2Q 2009

July 23, 2009 | 12:04 am | | Podcasts |


Today we released the last two market reports of the quarterly gauntlet of reports covering the New York City region (no more until October!) – I provide a brief overview for each report in this podcast.

To download these reports and other reports, view charts and build custom data tables.




Prudential Douglas Elliman Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview 2Q 2009

Prudential Douglas Elliman Long Island Market Overview 2Q 2009

Check out the podcast.

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.



1Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

April 23, 2009 | 1:01 am | | Reports |

The 1Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Ellimanis available for download.

The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the market her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Customized tables for the 1Q 2009 Long Island data and a series of updated charts are available on our corporate site.

A report excerpt

…After peaking at 26,145 units in the second quarter of 2008, the number of listings has generally trended lower. There were 22,942 listings at the end of the first quarter, down 4.4% from 24,003 units in the same period last year. Listing inventory did rise 10.7% from the prior quarter, but this was a seasonal increase and lower than in four of the past five years during the same period. Inventory levels have been stabilizing over the past two years, however, the level of sales activity has been declining over the same period. There were 2,872 sales in the first quarter, 18.2% below the 3,513 sales of the same period a year ago. As a result, the monthly absorption – the number of months it would take to sell all existing inventory at the current pace of sales 9 was 24 months, up from 20.5 months in the same period last year…


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4Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

January 22, 2009 | 1:01 pm | | Reports |

The 4Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Ellimanis available for download.

The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the market her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Customized tables for the 4Q 2008 Long Island data and a series of updated charts are available on our corporate site.

A report excerpt

…For the second consecutive quarter, listing inventory has declined in addition to the contraction in the number of sales over the same period and the prior year quarter. There were 20,730 properties listed for sale at the end of the current quarter, down 0.3% from the same period last year with 20,801 properties listed at that time. The number of sales slipped 3.4% over the same period to 4,427 sales, from 4,584 sales. The stabilization of inventory combined with the decline in number of sales suggests that there are fewer Ã’casual sellersÓ with many opting to wait until housing market conditions improve before listing a property. The contraction of credit and the current recession continue to limit the number of sales, placing downward pressure on price trends…

The media coverage of the report is available here as they were obtained (in no particular order).


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3Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

October 29, 2008 | 1:32 pm | | Reports |

The 3Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. Due to demand, I expanded the Long Island/Queens Market Overview into two separate reports.

To review the report methodology.

An excerpt

…The median sales price for the fifth consecutive quarter has fallen from the prior year quarter and seven of the last eight quarters. The Median sales price at $415,000 was down 6.2% from $442,380 in the same period last year. Median sales price is off 7.8% from its peak two years ago during the same period when it was $445,521. Average sales price saw a similar pattern suggesting that the price decline was not due to a skew in the mix of what sold over the quarter. The average sales price was $508,936 this quarter, down 7.3% from the prior year quarter result of $548,883…

Download report: 3Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview [pdf]



[Tonight] A Trifecta Evening In Long Island City

September 18, 2008 | 2:28 pm | | Public |

Long Island City has been one of those segments of the New York City real estate market that has quietly experienced fairly broad consumer acceptance in a short period of time. This is evidenced by the large level of purchase activity over the past several years in response to new development efforts. As a result, residential support services are entering the market at an impressive pace.

Located in Queens, Long Island City has signifiant linkage to Manhattan. The new residential condominium developments in Long Island City are generally selling for roughly half the price per square foot of similar product in Manhattan and yet is only a few minutes away from Manhattan via subway. (That’s how I plan to get there tonight.)

At 6:30 this evening, Dottie Herman, CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman and I will first speak at The Powerhouse Condominium and then at 7:30 we will speak at L Haus Condominium to the brokers attending the event. Her firm’s New Homes Development Group is handling the marketing of both developments plus a nearby property that is already being marketed called The Foundry and they are included in the event as well.

Should be fun.


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[In The Media] Data Minefield: Knowing Its Limitations

August 22, 2008 | 12:24 am | | Public |

Yesterday, Newsday ran nearly a full page story with my photo on the first page (different from the print version) of their business section discussing the vast array of housing information out there. The reporter’s article idea originated last week when I was interviewed for the release of the Prudential Douglas Elliman Long Island/Queen Market Overview I prepare and my plans to expand coverage and separate these two market areas.

Housing and mortgage reports are barometers of the market, but may not necessarily portray a complete picture. For example, one report may have higher numbers while another might not cover certain sales.

In other words, the size and quality of the data set defines the markets a report should cover. “Cart before the horse” so to speak.

Experts like Miller Samuel CEO Jonathan Miller say the full picture is in knowing the limits of the data

Manhattan-based appraiser Jonathan Miller bases his quarterly sales reports on numbers from the MLS, but he said he noticed a year ago that the records were a few thousand sales shorter for Queens than those in New York City’s property records.

I found the following comment by LIBOR puzzling because I was not criticizing their quality whatsoever. In fact, the quality of their information is excellent.

The Long Island Board of Realtors disputed the discrepancy, saying it compiles data recorded by brokers.

The point I was making is that by definition, MLS data in any market is a subset of the entire market. Their data set may represent nearly all sales or a small portion of sales. Their data set may serve as a proxy for the entire market or it may not. If an analyst has the means to collect data in excess of the quantity available from a local MLS, it only serves to benefit market participants.


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2Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

July 17, 2008 | 12:01 am | | Reports |

The 2Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We took over the preparation of this market area study for them in 2Q 06.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

An excerpt

…In continuation of last quarter’s market pattern, the pace of inventory growth and the pace in the decline in the number of sales continue to slow but still show weakening market conditions. The lower level of activity is reflective of stressed economic conditions and more stringent underwriting guidelines of mortgage lenders, who are requiring larger down payments, tighter ratios and higher credit scores. Despite a decline in activity, price indicators were essentially unchanged from the prior year quarter. There is an expectation of higher sales activity in the third quarter as spillover from the spring market activity closes in the summer months…

Download report: 2Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]



1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

April 16, 2008 | 1:01 pm | | Reports |

The 1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We took over the preparation of this market area study for them in 2Q 06.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

An excerpt

..Price indicators for the quarter will mixed as compared to the same period a year ago. The average sales price was $514,135, up 3.6% while the median sales price of $435,000 was down 0.6%. The number of sales were down 14.1% to 6,015 units while inventory levels were up 10.2% to 35,209 units. A weaker economy and difficulties with access to credit have tempered the demand for housing compared to the past several years. The expansion of the days on market indicator and rising inventory levels are the result of reduced demand, yet the pace of inventory growth is easing. The next quarter tends to be the most active quarter of the year as characterized by elevated sales activity and price growth…

Download report: 1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]



[Food & Real Estate] Crain’s Economic Breakfast Forum

February 15, 2008 | 7:07 pm | | Public |

Last week I gave a recap an overview of the New York region at a recent Crain’s Economic Breakfast Forum at the New York Hyatt.

Click here for a 5 minute clip of the one hour session.


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