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New York City Suburbs

[Fast Pace] 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales Report

July 26, 2013 | 10:39 am | | Reports |

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 2Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Fastest market pace since 2005 with absorption rate at 9.3 months.
  • Inventory fell sharply as closed sales and pending sales jumped.
  • Housing prices edged higher.
  • Tight credit continued to keep inventory off market.
  • Concern about rising mortgage rates pushed more buyers into the market.

Here’s an excerpt from the 2Q 2013 report:

…Although the pace of the Long Island market has been accelerating with more sales and less supply, prices continue to see only modest gains from the prior year levels. There were 16,300 listings in total inventory at the end of the second quarter, 17.5% less than in the same period last year. However, new inventory added to the market expanded by 8.7% to 12,292 over the same period, possibly providing some relief to homebuyers in the coming quarters…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.


The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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[Supply Limited] 2Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Report

July 11, 2013 | 9:56 pm | | Reports |

We just published our report on the Westchester & Putnam County New York housing markets. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

  • Inventory fell to 8-year low.
  • Jump in both number of sales and signed contracts.
  • Housing prices rose above year ago level.
  • Median sales price rose to highest level for second quarter in 8 years.
  • Credit remains tight keeping inventory low.
  • Heavy contract momentum carrying into next quarter.

PUTNAM

  • Sales jumped despite inventory slide.
  • Housing price indicators slipped from year ago levels.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

WESTCHESTER There were 2,251 sales in the second quarter, 24% more than the same period last year, consistent with the 23% increase in all signed contracts over the same time period. Listing inventory fell by 13.3% to 6,128 from the prior year quarter, marking the lowest second quarter inventory total since 2005…

PUTNAM The Putnam housing market saw a modest decline in all price indicators from prior year levels. Median sales price was $288,500, down 1.5% from the prior year quarter. Average sales price fell by 6.2% to $326,406 and average price per square foot fell by 5.2% to $164 over the same period…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam markets as well as view charts on the Westchester market, all updated with 2Q13 data.

Press coverage




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]
Westchester Market Charts [Miller Samuel]


[No Fiscal Cliff Hangover] 1Q 2013 Hamptons & North Fork Reports

May 13, 2013 | 10:02 am | | Reports |

[click to open reports]

We recently released the market reports we prepare for Douglas Elliman covering the The Hamptons and North Fork.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

HAMPTONS 1Q 2013

  • Listing inventory continued to fall.
  • Number of sales surged.
  • Number of sales in excess of $5M dropped as many high end buyers rushed to close at the end of 2012.
  • Limited supply beginning to apply upward pressure to stable markets.
  • Credit remains tight, restraining supply from entering market, no urgency to list.
  • Record low mortgage rates and release of pent-up demand keeping demand strong.
  • Less high end sales as tax-incentivized buyers rushed to close at the end of 2012.

NORTH FORK 1Q 2013

  • Housing prices up in all segments except for top quintile due to tax-incentivized rush at end of 2012.
  • Number of sales fell and listings rose.
  • Days on market expanded.


Here’s an excerpt from the 1Q 2013 report:

HAMPTONS…After an unprecedented year end surge in high end closings motivated by tax planning purposes, the first quarter Hamptons housing market saw an unusually low level of high end sales despite a year-over-year increase in total sales. As a result, the price indicators reflected declines, when in fact the housing market was not experiencing falling prices…

NORTH FORK…Sales activity in the first quarter of the North Fork housing market was somewhat weaker than the same period a year ago as the prior quarter “poached” some activity at the close of 2012. Price indicators were generally higher, but sales were lower and inventory was above prior year levels…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 1Q 13. While we haven’t built separate chart galleries for each market yet, you can browse our chart library.




The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Hamptons Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Hamptons Sales [Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 North Fork Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Defined by Low Supply] 1Q 2013 Long Island Sales Report

May 13, 2013 | 9:34 am | | Reports |

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 1Q 2013.

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

1Q 2013

  • Lowest first quarter listing total in a decade.
  • Signed contract volume jumped from year ago levels.
  • Housing prices remained generally stable, indicators mixed.
  • Limited supply beginning to apply upward pressure to stable markets.
  • Credit remains tight, restraining supply from entering market, no urgency to list.
  • Record low mortgage rates and release of pent-up demand keeping demand strong.
  • Less high end sales as tax-incentivized buyers rushed to close at the end of 2012.


Here’s an excerpt from the 1Q 2013 report:

…The lack of supply and rise of contract activity continued to define the Long Island housing market. Listing inventory fell to the lowest first quarter level seen in a decade as pending sales continued to rise. Despite the tightening of the market, overall price indicators remained mixed. The number of listings in inventory at the end of the first quarter fell 24.8% to 15,303 as compared to the same period last year, a ten year first quarter low…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 1Q 13 data. Check out the charts by browsing in our chart library.




The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Inventory, Contracts] 1Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Report

April 11, 2013 | 11:27 am | | Reports |

We just published our report on the Westchester & Putnam County New York housing markets.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

  • Listing inventory fell to lowest first quarter total in four years.
  • Current supply is just below the 10-year average.
  • While sales are up, contract volume surged above year ago levels.
  • Overall price indicators were mixed indicating stability.

PUTNAM

  • Listing inventory declined as sales edged higher
  • Housing prices edged higher.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The first quarter of 2013 was defined by falling listing inventory and a significant rise in contract activity. Despite the faster pace of the market, price indicators showed stability compared to the same period last year. However, the overall market is expected to see more upward price pressure if the pace of falling supply and rising sales activity continues. The number of closed sales in the first quarter of 2013 showed only a modest gain of 5.6% to 1,348 compared to the same period last year. However, the total number of contracts surged 27% over the same period representing a significant acceleration in the pace of the market since the end of 2012. Listing inventory continued to fall sharply, down 17.5% to 5,587 from the first quarter of 2012, the lowest first quarter total in four years…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam market – now updated with 1Q 13 data. I’ll be posting the updated charts soon.




The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 1Q 2013 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Douglas Elliman]


Hampton Year End Sales And Price Spike, Fiscal Cliff Style

January 29, 2013 | 1:03 pm | | Charts |


[click to read article (subscr)]

I thought the chart created by the WSJ using our data nicely illustrated the end of year spike in sales and prices at the end of the 2012, influenced by the notion that taxes, whatever form they take, will be higher in the future. I think this surge in activity will take some of the edge off the market in 2013.

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Video: Record Average Sales Price In Hamptons

January 27, 2013 | 3:21 pm | | TV, Videos |

The record average sales price in our Douglas Elliman Hamptons market report made “The Bloomberg Number” today on Betty Liu’s show “In The Loop.”

The record price (highest we’ve seen since we began tracking it in 1999) was the result of skew towards the high end of the market as higher end consumers pushed to close prior to December 31 to avoid potential tax increases. It’s not that housing prices are rising, rather a lot more sales closed at the high end in 4Q12. For example there were more sales to close at or above $5M (49) than we have seen since we began tracking this metric in mid-2008.

Looks for a slower market in 1Q13 as sales that would have organically closed were poached (pulled back) into 4Q12.


[Tax Planning on Steroids] 4Q 2012 + 2003-2012 Hamptons/North Fork Decade Reports

January 25, 2013 | 12:08 pm | | Reports |

[click to open reports]

We published our 4Q 2012 reports for both The Hamptons and North Fork. Since this was the final quarter of 2012, we also released our Hamptons/North Fork Decade report, a ten year moving window data compendium of the Hamptons/North Fork market from 2003-2012

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

HAMPTONS 4Q 2012

  • Most fourth quarter sales and lowest level of inventory in 6 years.
  • Highest average sales price in 7 years, skewed by high end market strength.
  • Days on market expanded as older listings were absorbed due to lack of supply.
  • Credit remains tight as economy slowly improves.
  • Inventory falling – low to negative equity, no urgency to list.
  • Sales rising as record low mortgage rates create demand.
  • A release in pent-up demand from election year and “fiscal cliff” concerns over rising taxes.over rising taxes.

NORTH FORK 4Q 2012

  • Inventory at lowest level in four years.
  • Sales rising from record low mortgage rates and pent-up demand.
  • Credit remains tight as economy slowly improves.
  • Inventory falling – low to negative equity, no urgency to list.

HAMPTONS/NORTH FORK 2003-2012

  • Median sales price up 31.9% over decade.
  • Average sales price nearly doubled, reflecting emphasis on luxury market over the decade.
  • Number of sales 20.4% less than in 2003.
  • Days on market 2 months slower than in 2003.


Here’s an excerpt from the 4Q 2012 report:

HAMPTONS…The final quarter of the 2012 Hamptons housing market was characterized by unusually heavy sales volume and falling inventory, which both hit 6-year highs and lows, respectively. The strength at the upper end of the market continued to skew the overall price indicators higher, while the pace of the market accelerated and older listing inventory was more readily absorbed…

NORTH FORK…The fourth quarter 2012 North Fork housing market was marked by upward price pressure, falling inventory, rising sales and a faster pace than we had seen in the same quarter a year ago. The price gains were weighted towards the end of 2012, as falling inventory provided buyers with fewer options and record low mortgage rates fostered additional affordability…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 4Q 12 and annual 2003-2012 data. I’ll post the updated charts soon. In the meantime you can browse our chart library.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Hamptons Sales [Miller Samuel]
he Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Hamptons/North Fork Decade [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Hamptons Sales [Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 North Fork Sales [Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Hamptons/North Fork Decade [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Turning Corner?] 4Q 2012 + 2003-2012 Long Island Decade Reports

January 25, 2013 | 11:48 am | | Reports |


[click to open reports]

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 4Q 2012. Since this was the final quarter of 2012, we also released our Long Island Decade report, a ten year moving window data compendium of the Long Island market from 2003-2012

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

4Q 2012

  • Lowest fourth quarter inventory level in 8 years, down 21% from a year ago.
  • Year end rising momentum in sales as pending sales outpaced closed sales.
  • Price indicators were up across-the-board from a year ago.
  • Credit remains tight as economy slowly improves.
  • Inventory falling – low to negative equity, no urgency to list.
  • Sales rising as record low mortgage rates create demand.
  • A release in pent-up demand from election year and “fiscal cliff” concerns over rising taxes.

2003-2012

  • Sales increased for first time since 2006.
  • Median sales price up 3.2% over decade.
  • Market peak in price was 2006, same as the US housing market.
  • Housing prices have shown stability for 3 years.


Here’s an excerpt from the 4Q 2012 report:

…Long Island, like much of the greater New York region, is experiencing a chronic short of listing inventory. Steadily declining over the past several years, Long Island listing inventory reached an 8-year low in the fourth quarter. The large year-over-year drop in supply was met with an increased level of sales activity, both in terms of signed contracts and closed sales…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 4Q 12 and annual 2003-2012 data. I’ll post the updated charts soon. In the meantime you can browse our chart library.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Long Island Decade [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Long Island Decade [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Stronger Finish] 4Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Report

January 12, 2013 | 9:57 pm | | Reports |

We just published our rreport on the Westchester & Putnam County New York housing markets.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

  • Housing prices remain stable.
  • Sales up sharply as many anticipated higher taxes relating to the Fiscal Cliff in 2013.
  • Listing inventory continued to fall. Higher sales and tight credit ARE keeping inventory low.
  • Days on market edged higher as older inventory continued to be absorbed.
  • Luxury prices continued to outpace the overall market.

PUTNAM

  • Housing price indicators were mixed.
  • Sales slipped from the same period last year.
  • Listing inventory continued to trend lower.
  • Days on market edged higher as older inventory continued to be absorbed.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The fourth quarter 2012 Westchester housing market was characterized by general price stability, sharply rising sales activity, declining inventory and a faster overall market pace heading into 2013.

Median sales price saw a nominal 0.6% decline from prior year levels to $395,000. Average sales price increased 11.5% and average price per square foot rose 5.2% over the same period. The year-to-date results show nominal declines for all price indicators, including a 1.6% decline in median sales price. In the fourth quarter, the luxury market price indicators outpaced the overall market. Median sales price increased 21.6% from the prior year quarter to $2,150,000…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam market – now updated with 4Q 12 data. I‘ve added some charts for Westchester (Putnam coming) and will be adding to them in the future.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Douglas Elliman]


Hamptons High End Market in 4Q: Hedging Against Possible Rise in Capital Gains?

November 6, 2012 | 8:00 am | | Charts |


[click to expand]

This chart is an enlarged version of a chart that appeared within our just released Elliman Report: Hamptons/North Fork Sales. I’ve expanded it because I was struck by the randomness of activity in the $5M and up sector of the market (blue columns). Clearly the pattern follows the market stall after Lehman’s ’08 bankruptcy for a few quarters but otherwise, the sales don’t seem to follow a pattern, seasonal or otherwise.

The two quarters with a spike of 38 sales, 4Q 2010 and 2Q 2012 could be explained perhaps but the reasons aren’t that compelling in comparison to how much they stand out.

4Q 2010 The looming Bush tax cut expiration at the end of 2010 caused many sellers to bring high end properties and they were quickly absorbed.

2Q 2012 The prior quarter seemed to be an elevated spring surge.

4Q 2012 Will the 4th quarter see the same phenomenon as 4Q 2010? The capital gains implications are the same – will the Bush tax cuts be extended? – I’m not sure but our appraisal practice is inundated with valuation assignments of high end properties hedging against the potential end of year rise in capital gains tax.

The aftermath of Hurricane Sandy and the imminent Snor’eastercane may change the 4Q 2012 results.

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[6 Year High] 3Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork Report

October 25, 2012 | 2:54 pm | | Reports |

We published our report on the Hamptons & North Fork sales market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Hamptons & North Fork

-Sales increased to highest 3rd quarter total in 7 years.
-Fourth highest market share of sub-million dollar sales (69.9%) in four years as falling mortgage rates brought out first time buyers, skewing overall prices lower.
-Market share of sales above $5M fell sharply from 55.6% to 36.6% of luxury sales.
-Monthly absorption rate was at second fastest pace (10.3 months) since the credit crunch began from rising sales and falling inventory.
-Tight credit continues restrain demand but rates remain at record lows and continue to pull in buyers despite difficulty.
-Wall Street and International buyers remain active.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The housing market on the eastern end of Long Island had its highest number of third quarter sales in six years, as inventory declined and buyers and sellers moved closer together on price. Housing prices were characterized as stable, as price indicators declined largely due to the shift towards smaller properties in response to falling mortgage rates. The market share of sales below $1M increased to 69.9% of all sales, up from 67.1% in the prior year quarter and above the five-year average of 66.5%. The shift towards lower-priced sales skewed overall housing prices lower; median sales price fell 9.3% from $700,000 in the same period last year to $635,000. In addition to the spike in sales below the $1M threshold, there was increased activity at the lower end of the luxury market…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 3Q 12 data. I’ll update the chart series soon. In the meantime you can browse our chart library.




The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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