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New York City Suburbs

[More Activity, Later] 3Q 2012 Long Island Report

October 25, 2012 | 2:37 pm | | Reports |

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Long Island

-Housing prices generally stable
-Listing inventory continues to fall sharply
-Pending sales outpaced closed sales reflecting a late season rise in activity
-Despite tight credit, record low mortgage rates are pulling more people into the market.





Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The pace of the Long Island housing market has been accelerating. The rise in sales and sharp decline in available inventory resulted in the fastest absorption rate in nearly six years. Contract signings rose faster than the pace of closings on both a quarterly and year-to-date basis. Median sales price was $365,000, unchanged from the prior year quarter. Average sales price saw a nominal 0.8% slip from $457,496 to $454,037 over the same period. The second, third, and fourth quintiles saw no or nominal changes in median sales price compared to the prior year quarter, while the first and fifth quintiles declined 2.2% and 2.9% respectively over the same period. There were 5,638 sales in the third quarter, 9.7% above 5,141 sales in the same period last year. Pending sales saw a larger gain over the same period, rising 12.9% to 5,436 from 4,813. Year-to-date, these metrics showed a similar pattern, reflecting the expanding activity levels later in the year…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 3Q 12 data. I’ll post the updated 3Q12 charts soon. In the meantime you can browse our chart library.




The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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[More Pacing] 3Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Report

October 11, 2012 | 1:24 pm | | Reports |

We just published our report on the Manhattan rental market for 3Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

  • Number of sales jumped 21.9% above year ago levels while inventory fell 9.8% over the same period.
  • Single family sales surged 25.9% year over year, condos up 23%. Co-ops and 2-4 Family sales below year ago levels. Single family sales up in all regions.
  • Housing prices were stable – median sales price $490,000, down 1.1% but average home size slipped 1.7%.
  • Fastest market pace in 5 years: The combination of rising sales and falling inventory quickened the “pace” of the market as the monthly absorption rate fell to 8.6 months.
  • Luxury market prices remained lower than year ago levels. Median 13.8% below last year.

PUTNAM

  • Sales surged 44.8% year over year.
  • Housing prices continued slide year over year – median down 12.5% to $293K
  • Inventory fell 10.6%

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The third quarter was marked by a surge in sales, and fewer properties available for sale. Falling mortgage rates brought first time buyers into the market, as evidenced by a decline in the average size of a property sold. This also resulted in all price indicators falling below year-ago levels. The median sales price of a Westchester property in the third quarter was $490,000, 1.1% below $495,625 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price and average price per square foot followed the same pattern; the average square footage of sold property was 2,322 square feet, down 1.7% from 2,361 in the prior year quarter…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam market – now updated with 3Q 12 data. I’ll have the newly created chart section for Westchester & Putnam uploaded soon (I know I said this last quarter as well!) and add the link here when I do – it’ll be an evolving series.




The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

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[More Sales] 2Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork Report

July 27, 2012 | 10:36 am | | Reports |

We published our report on the Hamptons & North Fork sales market for 2Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Hamptons & North Fork

-Sales jumped above year ago levels reaching the second highest spring market total in 6 years.
-Median sales price slipped from year ago levels, although average sales price was at 3rd highest level since credit crunch began in 2008.
-Most sales over $5M since credit crunch began – tied with 4Q 2010.
-Listing inventory edged above year ago levels.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Hamptons and North Fork housing markets were characterized as having their most active spring markets in six years, but both with weaker price levels and modest upticks in listing inventory and marketing time. There were more sales in the second quarter spring market than there have been in any second quarter throughout the past six years. The second quarter total was 676 sales, 9.2% more than 619 sales in the prior year quarter. This total was sharply above the prior quarter result of 381 sales, an unusually light number, given the mild winter and early spring selling season, which suggests a timing issue at play. Listing inventory was 2,452, 5.3% above 2,329 in the same period last year. As a result, the monthly absorption rate was 10.9 months, faster than 11.3 months in the prior year quarter as well as the 12.9-month sixyear average…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. You can browse our chart library for the latest – updated for 2Q 2012.




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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[Better Than Before] 2Q 2012 Long Island Report

July 27, 2012 | 9:36 am | | Reports |

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 2Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Long Island

-Despite the warm winter and early start of the spring market, second quarter sales were up 8.9% over last year.
-Pending sales were up 6.4% above year ago levels.
-Median sales price was unchanged from prior and year ago quarters.
-Listing inventory fell 13.2% to a seven year low for the second quarter.
-Negotiability between buyer and seller and days on market remained stable.
-Falling mortgage rates driving demand, despite tight mortgage lending conditions.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Long Island spring housing market was characterized by stable prices, falling inventory and rising sales activity. This occurred despite some of the tightest mortgage lending conditions in years, as well as elevated unemployment levels and a weak, but slowly improving, regional economy. There were 4,581 sales, 8.9% more than 4,205 in the prior year quarter. Pending sales showed a similar pattern, despite an unusually robust prior quarter, which was attributable to the atypically warm winter…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. You can browse our chart library for the latest – updated for 2Q 2012.




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Stable Burb] 2Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Report

July 12, 2012 | 4:43 pm | | Reports |

We published our report on the Westchester/Putnam market for 2Q 2012 this morning.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

  • Housing prices were stable, basically unchanged from this time last year. Median sales price was $459,000 in 2Q 12
  • Sales activity jumped, up 14.7% from last year to 1,815.
  • Listing inventory fell 11.7% to 7,064.
  • The combination of rising sales and falling inventory quickened the “pace” of the market as the monthly absorption rate fell to 11.7 months from 15.2
  • Luxury market saw stronger price trends than the stable overall market, median was up 6.6%.

PUTNAM

  • Housing prices softened – median down 6.6% to $293K
  • Sales jumped in response to falling rates.
  • Inventory fell 13.2%

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Westchester housing market showed price stability, rising sales and falling inventory during the second quarter, as the regional economy continued to confront tight credit and a slowly improving economy. Median sales price was $459,000, essentially unchanged from $457,500 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price followed the same pattern. The average sales price was $645,208 in the second quarter, similar to $643,907 in the same period last year. Price per square foot, the least reliable of the three price indicators, reflected a 2.6% increase to $279 per square foot over the same period…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. I’ll have the newly created chart section for Westchester & Putnam uploaded this evening.




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

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[The Housing Helix Podcast] Chris Meyers, COO, Houlihan Lawrence Real Estate

May 20, 2010 | 10:52 pm | Podcasts |

I have a candid conversation with Chris Meyers, COO of Houlihan Lawrence, the largest real estate brokerage firm in Westchester County, New York. A family business, Houlihan Lawrence has 1,200 agents and 24 offices to service Westchester, Putnam and Duchess Counties.

We talk about many things including the housing market of the past 18 months, finding good agents and the introduction of social media to the real estate brokerage business.

Check out the podcast.

The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.



[The Assessor] New WSJ Column, Includes, Well, An Appraiser (Also Hamptons Data)

April 28, 2010 | 7:35 pm | | Public |


[click to read article (subscription)]

This week’s Wall Street Journal introduces a Greater New York section that focuses on, among other things, regional real estate. They’s staffed up have been the talk of the real estate community for the past month.

The new column “The Assessor (prior names under consideration included “The Appraiser” – how cool would that be?) features a sort of factoid visual presentation of some element of regional housing each day.

Today I contributed a slice of Hamptons data, including five metrics, to focus on five towns that had the highest average sales price in the luxury section of the 1Q 2010 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview I prepare for Prudential Douglas Elliman. However I took the towns and analyzed all the sales, not just those in the top 10% of the entire East End and compared them to the prior year quarter and prior quarter.

The idea was to take a look at a slice of the market and see how it performed. It is really a bad idea to look at individual towns for trends in that market as many attempt to do because the data sets are way too low and varied to be statistically meaningful and can be misleading. The 5 time sample size for this analysis was deemed adequate.

One thing that is clear – sales in these higher-priced towns outpaced the overall rate of sales growth suggesting that the high-end market seems to be returning to the fray. In addition, the jump in median and average sales prices do not suggest that is how prices are rising, but rather how there was a substantial shift in the mix towards high-end sales.

I’m just sayin’…

Actually I’m not saying there’s a housing recovery. We seem to be observing a return to a more reasonable mix of sales activity, rather then the substantial skew toward the lower priced market segments during 2009.



[WPAR] 1Q 2010 Westchester County, NY: Tax Credit Driving Sales

April 27, 2010 | 9:51 pm | |

The Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service, Inc. provides a quarterly analysis of the Westchester County real estate market, a suburb of New York City.

Although we perform appraisals in Westchester it’s been a while since I wrote about the market. I just did the keynote at Westchester Real Estate, Inc.’s annual award luncheon and got some great feedback from the brokers in attendance.

For perspective, and aside from the last two years, annualized sales levels in 2010 are below every year since 1993. In fact, the annualized sales level for 2010 is exaggerated since the first quarter benefitted from elevated sales activity caused by the federal tax credit which will not continue to skew sales higher in the second half of 2010.

Despite a 54% increase in sales activity in 1Q 2010 over the prior year quarter, sales listing inventory actually increased 3.9%. In other words, new listings entering the market outpaced the properties being sold off. With the gains in sales, we would expect a decline in inventory over the same period.




Here’s an excerpt from the WPAR report.

Real estate firms participating in the Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service reported 1,313 closings of Westchester residential property transactions in the first three months of 2010, an increase of 54% from the same period a year ago. Putnam County closed transactions were up by 28%. The closings largely reflected marketing and contract activity that took place during the late autumn and closing months of 2009.

Although the year to year percentage increases in sales were high in all categories of housing tracked by the MLS, it must be noted that they were calculated against the very poor sales base of the opening months of 2009. At that time total sales were less than half those of the peaks posted in 2006 and 2007. The 2010 volume was closer to that posted at the start of 2008 when the real estate recession first took hold in our area. Seasonally adjusted1, Westchester’s 2010 first quarter sales were equivalent to an annual sales rate of 6,830 units; that approximate annual volume was last experienced in 1995 and 1996.

Download the Westchester and Putnam Counties 1Q 10 report [WPAR]


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[Vortex] The Hall Monitor: Seasonality Should be Considered in Comp Selection

April 27, 2010 | 8:39 pm |

Guest Columnist:
Todd Huttunen

Todd Huttunen began appraising more than 20 years ago with a few years off in between to pursue a career in cabinet making. He relegated that to hobby status and is currently an appraiser in an assessor’s office. His best friend dubbed him The Hall Monitor because of his rigidity and respect for rules. He offers Matrix readers tongue-in-groove insight on appraisal and housing issues. View his earlier handiwork on my first blog, Soapbox

Jonathan Miller


Seasonality Should be Considered in Comp Selection


April 26, 2010

The Westchester numbers for the first quarter just came out today. Even with the turbulence we’ve seen in the last couple of years, there remains a consistent trend in the median selling prices as relates to “seasonality”.

Not unlike Metro-North or Hamptons rentals, there is a “peak” and an “off peak”.

Whether the overall market is trending up or down, houses that close in the second or third quarters sell for considerably more than those that close in quarters four or one.

Appraisals done “in season” (assuming 60 days from contract to closing, these would be valuation dates in the six months between February 1 and July 31) should rely, if possible, on sales that closed in the second and third quarters, if not from the year of the appraisal then on the prior year. Conversely, appraisals made between August 1 and January 31, or “off season”, should focus on sales from quarters four and one.

Adjustments are required for the difference in market conditions between “in season” and “off season” for single family houses in the New York metropolitan area. What those adjustments should be can be fairly easily calculated by looking at the historical data for median prices. Remarkably, in Westchester at least, the differences are pretty consistent either in upward of downward trending markets.

Check out that serpentine line on the Median Price chart – just for fun, print it out and draw a line connecting only quarters two and three to each other over the years. Then do the same to quarters four and one and watch how quickly that serpentine line straightens out into two lines with much more of a consistent trend to them.

I really don’t understand why appraisers are so stuck on this idea that only sales taking place within six months of valuation date should be used. Six month old sales can be the most misleading ones of all, insofar as market conditions are concerned.

p.s. I know I addressed this issue in a prior post but it bears repeating since it seems almost no one is paying any attention.


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[The Housing Helix Podcast] 1Q 2010 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview

April 25, 2010 | 6:40 pm | Podcasts |

I provide a quick recap of the East End housing market in the first quarter of 2010 as presented in our 1Q 2010 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview.

Check out the podcast

The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.



[The Housing Helix Podcast] 1Q 2010 Long Island Market Overview

April 25, 2010 | 6:34 pm | | Podcasts |

Here’s a quick recap of the Long Island Market Overview I authored for Prudential Douglas Elliman that we released last Thursday.

Check out the podcast

The Housing Helix Podcast Interview List

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.



[Back to Normal?] 1Q 2010 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

April 22, 2010 | 8:05 am | | Reports |


[click to view report]

The 1Q 2010 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Additional insight can be gained from charts we create to supplement the report and press coverage.

An excerpt

…There were 486 sales in the first quarter, 141.8% more than the 201 sales of the prior year quarter, but 13.8% below the 564 sales in the prior quarter, which was a two-year high. The last three quarters of sales activity has been consistent with the quarterly average of the past 5 years. Gains in the financial markets, Higher Wall Street compensation, low mortgage rates and improved affordability have stimulated demand. Despite economic turmoil of the past two years, the East End housing market, which is driven by its second home market, has continued to keep pace with the New York City housing market. Although there were sharp gains in the number of sales, up from levels not seen in at least six years, listing inventory rose. There were 2,318 listings, up 1.3% from 2,289 listings in the same period last year and up 7.4% from 2,159 listings in the prior quarter. Re-sale shadow inventory, which consists of listings that were removed from the market in the prior year due to unfavorable market conditions, is being added to the current market…

Download report 1Q 2010 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel]
View Hamptons/North Fork charts [Miller Samuel]


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