Matrix Blog

New York City Suburbs

[Housing Matrix] Fairfield County, Connecticut

July 27, 2009 | 12:00 am |

Although I don’t currently report on the Fairfield County, CT market myself, here is an excellent recap of the 2007, 2008 and 2009 (through June) housing market presented by William Raveis Real Estate, who does a great job with their online presentation of MLS stats. I selected Greenwich, Connecticut as the town to be analyzed (I have to select one) given its heavy linkage to Wall Street. County and state trends were also shown.

Trends are nearly identical to the NYC, Long Island and The Hamptons/North Fork markets: Marketing time has expanded, median sales price, sales have fallen sharply and rising inventory. The similarity is consistent with many other metro areas based on the credit contraction throughout the country.




[Three Cents Worth #125] Manhattan vs. Hamptons!

July 23, 2009 | 4:27 pm | | Columns |

Sure happy it’s Thursday to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate.

Today I ventured eastward (in my mind that is) until I hit the beach for a 3CW column on Curbed Hamptons.

Click here to view this week’s post.

Check out previous Three Cents Worth posts.


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[Beached] 2Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

July 23, 2009 | 12:05 am | | Reports |

The 2Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 2Q 2009 data and a series of updated charts are available.

Press coverage can be found here.

An excerpt

…There were 307 sales in the current quarter, 43.3% below the 541 sales in the prior year quarter but, 52.7% higher than the 201 sales in the prior quarter. The gain in the number of sales from the prior quarter was higher than seasonal norms, reflecting a release in pent-up demand from more limited sales activity at the end of 2008. Over the same period, the number of properties listed for sale continued to rise. Listing inventory totalled 2,286 properties, 23.6% higher than the 1,849 properties listed during the second quarter of 2008. The expansion of inventory was to be expected due to the decline in the number of sales. As a result of the rise in listing inventory and the decline in the number of sales, the monthly absorption rate—the number of months to sell all existing inventory at the current pace of sales—was 22.3 months, more than double the 10.3 month absorption rate average of the prior year quarter…

Download 2Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview

UPDATE: Listen to the podcast

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[Going Long] 2Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

July 23, 2009 | 12:05 am | | Reports |

The 2Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 2Q 2009 data and a series of updated charts are available.

Press coverage can be found here.

An excerpt

…The number of sales fell 32.7% to 3,956 from 5,874 in the same period last year, but increased 37.7% from the prior quarter total of 2,872. The jump in number of sales was consistent with seasonal trends as this period has averaged a 35.4% increase in the prior 5 years. Seasonality in this market statistic is much more pronounced than in New York City, where the trend has been historically more moderate. The number of properties for sale peaked in the second quarter of 2008 at 26,145 properties. Listing inventory has fallen 10.2% from the peak to 23,485 properties, in contrast to the decline in the number of sales over the same period. The monthly absorption rate — the number of months it would take to sell all existing inventory at the current pace of sales — was 17.8 months, up from 13.4 months in the same period last year. Many sellers are opting to list properties when they determine the market has improved…

Download 2Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview

UPDATE: Listen to the podcast

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[The Housing Helix Podcast] Hamptons/North Fork + Long Island Market Overviews 2Q 2009

July 23, 2009 | 12:04 am | | Podcasts |


Today we released the last two market reports of the quarterly gauntlet of reports covering the New York City region (no more until October!) – I provide a brief overview for each report in this podcast.

To download these reports and other reports, view charts and build custom data tables.




Prudential Douglas Elliman Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview 2Q 2009

Prudential Douglas Elliman Long Island Market Overview 2Q 2009

Check out the podcast.

You can subscribe on iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my other blog The Housing Helix.



[In The Media] Bloomberg TV 5-23-09

May 25, 2009 | 10:46 pm | | Public |

Both Hamptons sales activity and sales prices are down. Ok.

The looming Memorial Day weekend – summer, beaches, vacations, getaways – made The Hamptons a favorite topic.

Hamptons Homes Drop Most Since Realtors Kept Records [Bloomberg]

The Hamptons: Economic Downturn or Killer Tornado? [CityFile]

Bargains abound for well-heeled in the Hamptons [AP]


Trivial background stuff to ignore – down to the wire via remote

Thursday night I got a call from Bloomberg TV asking if I could come to their studios to do a segment and I begged off. I had opted to work from home on Friday because one of my kids was getting an award at school in the morning and I wanted work at home…plus it was the Friday before Memorial Day weekend. Wait, why am I justifying this? 😉

They offered to set up a remote interview (third party company) in CT so I didn’t have to commute into NYC. Easy enough. Google maps said the remote studio was 10 minutes away – I gave myself 25 minutes. The address wasn’t on my GPS unit so I used my iphone, following the pulsating blue dot.

15 minutes before air time
Forgot about heavy Memorial Day traffic.

10 minutes before air time
I got to the street, but there were no numbers on the building I was ultimately looking for but I ran out of street. There was a security booth at the end of the street and a woman without teeth in the booth grunted to go around the corner.

7 minutes before air time
I enter the parking garage, which connected multiple buildings, and of course none were identified with numbers. I guessed it was the farthest building away. I was right.

5 minutes before air time
The lobby security guard had no idea where a TV studio was, so I called the contact number and they told me what floor to go to.

3 minutes before air time
I took the elevator to the floor and no one is there – just a series of glass doors in 3 directions. I picked one and started walking around trying to find the studio. Nothing was labeled.

1 minute before air time
Some came out of an unmark door, took me to the remote studio, mic’ed me up with a minute to go. And then anchor Peter Cook in DC started speaking to me to get acquainted.

air time
We went live and the TV feed was Fox News for the first 30 seconds instead of Bloomberg – a bit confusing. But somehow it worked out.

And I made it to my son’s award ceremony.

Listen to the segment.


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[In The Media] The Real Deal 4-29-09

April 29, 2009 | 12:42 pm | | Public |

Here’s a recent interview I did with Jen Benepe of The Real Deal Magazine on the East End and the market report 1Q 09 market report covering the Hamptons and North Fork.

You can stick a “fork” in it as much as you want, but the Hamptons aren’t “done,” by the way.

View the interview.


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[East End] 1Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

April 23, 2009 | 1:06 am | | Reports |

The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 1Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. Sorry, but I was tardy posting this report to my site after the initial release and coverage.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Prudential Douglas Elliman since 1994. The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the markets her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables

To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt

…There were 201 sales in the first quarter, down 49.8% from 400 sales in the same period last year and 72.9% from the same period five years ago, which had 742 sales. The number of sales dropped 44.6% from the prior quarter, which had a total of 363 sales. The slow down in activity is attributable to the credit crunch, employment and compensation concerns on Wall Street and recessionary economic conditions. As a result of the decline in the number of sales listing inventory expanded. There were 2,289 properties available for sale at the end of the first quarter, up 23.9% from 1,848 properties during the same period last year. The combination of rising inventory and declining sales resulted in a jump in the monthly absorption rate – the number of months to sell all existing inventory at the current pace of sales – to 34.2 months, from 13.9 months in the prior year quarter and up from 17.2 months in the prior quarter… on the high water mark set in their local market in the past few years, rather than in line with current conditions…

Download report: 1Q 2009 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]


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1Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

April 23, 2009 | 1:01 am | | Reports |

The 1Q 2009 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Ellimanis available for download.

The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the market her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Customized tables for the 1Q 2009 Long Island data and a series of updated charts are available on our corporate site.

A report excerpt

…After peaking at 26,145 units in the second quarter of 2008, the number of listings has generally trended lower. There were 22,942 listings at the end of the first quarter, down 4.4% from 24,003 units in the same period last year. Listing inventory did rise 10.7% from the prior quarter, but this was a seasonal increase and lower than in four of the past five years during the same period. Inventory levels have been stabilizing over the past two years, however, the level of sales activity has been declining over the same period. There were 2,872 sales in the first quarter, 18.2% below the 3,513 sales of the same period a year ago. As a result, the monthly absorption – the number of months it would take to sell all existing inventory at the current pace of sales 9 was 24 months, up from 20.5 months in the same period last year…


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[East End Around] 1999-2008 Hamptons/North Fork Report

March 3, 2009 | 12:00 pm | | Reports |

The 2008 Prudential Douglas Elliman Hamptons/North Fork Market Report is now available for download. Dottie Herman, the President/CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman is a big believer in market transparency, something rare in the real estate brokerage business.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Prudential Douglas Elliman since 1994 and this is the second time we have prepared a ten year report for the East End market. Its data heavy without the text. A recap of the past decade.

Guess what? Housing is cyclical.



Download the Prudential Douglas Elliman 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Report

Download other market reports prepared by Miller Samuel


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[East End] 4Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

February 5, 2009 | 5:23 pm | | Reports |

The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 4Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. Sorry, but I was tardy posting this report to my site after the initial release and coverage.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Prudential Douglas Elliman since 1994. The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the markets her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables

To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt

…The days on market averaged 150 this quarter, 16 days faster than the 166 days on market during the same period last year. “Casual sellers” are not listing their properties in significant numbers, which has helped temper the pace of rising inventory. In addition, the negotiability between buyers and sellers expanded significantly this quarter. The average listing discount was 15.4% from the list price at time of contract to the contract price, up from 8.1% during the same period last year. This indicator suggests that for most properties that go to contract, the seller has come down significantly to reach current market levels. This is further evidenced by the 35% listing discount from the original list price. Sellers continue to be behind the market and are inclined to price property based on the high water mark set in their local market in the past few years, rather than in line with current conditions…

Download report: 4Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]


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4Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

January 22, 2009 | 1:01 pm | | Reports |

The 4Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Ellimanis available for download.

The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the market her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Customized tables for the 4Q 2008 Long Island data and a series of updated charts are available on our corporate site.

A report excerpt

…For the second consecutive quarter, listing inventory has declined in addition to the contraction in the number of sales over the same period and the prior year quarter. There were 20,730 properties listed for sale at the end of the current quarter, down 0.3% from the same period last year with 20,801 properties listed at that time. The number of sales slipped 3.4% over the same period to 4,427 sales, from 4,584 sales. The stabilization of inventory combined with the decline in number of sales suggests that there are fewer Ã’casual sellersÓ with many opting to wait until housing market conditions improve before listing a property. The contraction of credit and the current recession continue to limit the number of sales, placing downward pressure on price trends…

The media coverage of the report is available here as they were obtained (in no particular order).


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