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[East End Two-fer] 3Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview + 1998-2007 Hamptons/North Fork Report Available For Download

November 4, 2008 | 4:24 pm | | Reports |

The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 3Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is now available for download.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables
To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt
…The upper price range of the housing market continues to outperform the overall housing market. In each of the past four quarters, the luxury market, defined as the upper ten percent of all sales, saw a higher year over year quarterly increase in median sales price than the overall market. The luxury market increased 10.3% in median sales price and the overall market declined 9.2% in median sales price compared to the same period last year. The market area south of the highway consistently has the highest overall prices as compared to the areas to the north and on either side of the canal. Of the four regions, only south of the highway saw an increase in median sales price of 1% as compared to the prior year quarter…

A New Report…
This year, we created a 10-year window of the East End using public record information. The result is a 4-page report crammed with information but no narrative (given my grammar-challenged writing skills, it’s a bit of a relief). I created the Prudential Douglas Elliman 1998-2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Report which is now available for download. I got this project going in August so I do realize it is dated in terms of the current year but the plan is to release this report annually so the 2008 version will be completed in early 2009.







Download report: 3Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]
Download report: 1998-2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]



3Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

October 29, 2008 | 1:32 pm | | Reports |

The 3Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. Due to demand, I expanded the Long Island/Queens Market Overview into two separate reports.

To review the report methodology.

An excerpt

…The median sales price for the fifth consecutive quarter has fallen from the prior year quarter and seven of the last eight quarters. The Median sales price at $415,000 was down 6.2% from $442,380 in the same period last year. Median sales price is off 7.8% from its peak two years ago during the same period when it was $445,521. Average sales price saw a similar pattern suggesting that the price decline was not due to a skew in the mix of what sold over the quarter. The average sales price was $508,936 this quarter, down 7.3% from the prior year quarter result of $548,883…

Download report: 3Q 2008 Long Island Market Overview [pdf]



[Tonight] A Trifecta Evening In Long Island City

September 18, 2008 | 2:28 pm | | Public |

Long Island City has been one of those segments of the New York City real estate market that has quietly experienced fairly broad consumer acceptance in a short period of time. This is evidenced by the large level of purchase activity over the past several years in response to new development efforts. As a result, residential support services are entering the market at an impressive pace.

Located in Queens, Long Island City has signifiant linkage to Manhattan. The new residential condominium developments in Long Island City are generally selling for roughly half the price per square foot of similar product in Manhattan and yet is only a few minutes away from Manhattan via subway. (That’s how I plan to get there tonight.)

At 6:30 this evening, Dottie Herman, CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman and I will first speak at The Powerhouse Condominium and then at 7:30 we will speak at L Haus Condominium to the brokers attending the event. Her firm’s New Homes Development Group is handling the marketing of both developments plus a nearby property that is already being marketed called The Foundry and they are included in the event as well.

Should be fun.


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[In The Media] Data Minefield: Knowing Its Limitations

August 22, 2008 | 12:24 am | | Public |

Yesterday, Newsday ran nearly a full page story with my photo on the first page (different from the print version) of their business section discussing the vast array of housing information out there. The reporter’s article idea originated last week when I was interviewed for the release of the Prudential Douglas Elliman Long Island/Queen Market Overview I prepare and my plans to expand coverage and separate these two market areas.

Housing and mortgage reports are barometers of the market, but may not necessarily portray a complete picture. For example, one report may have higher numbers while another might not cover certain sales.

In other words, the size and quality of the data set defines the markets a report should cover. “Cart before the horse” so to speak.

Experts like Miller Samuel CEO Jonathan Miller say the full picture is in knowing the limits of the data

Manhattan-based appraiser Jonathan Miller bases his quarterly sales reports on numbers from the MLS, but he said he noticed a year ago that the records were a few thousand sales shorter for Queens than those in New York City’s property records.

I found the following comment by LIBOR puzzling because I was not criticizing their quality whatsoever. In fact, the quality of their information is excellent.

The Long Island Board of Realtors disputed the discrepancy, saying it compiles data recorded by brokers.

The point I was making is that by definition, MLS data in any market is a subset of the entire market. Their data set may represent nearly all sales or a small portion of sales. Their data set may serve as a proxy for the entire market or it may not. If an analyst has the means to collect data in excess of the quantity available from a local MLS, it only serves to benefit market participants.


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[East End] 2Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

July 30, 2008 | 6:10 pm | | Reports |

The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 2Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables

To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt

…The upper price range of the housing market continues to outperform the overall housing market. In each of the past four quarters, the luxury market, defined as the upper ten percent of all sales, saw a higher year over year quarterly increase in median sales price than the overall market. The luxury market increased 10.3% in median sales price and the overall market declined 9.2% in median sales price compared to the same period last year. The market area south of the highway consistently has the highest overall prices as compared to the areas to the north and on either side of the canal. Of the four regions, only south of the highway saw an increase in median sales price of 1% as compared to the prior year quarter…

Download report: 2Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]



2Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

July 17, 2008 | 12:01 am | | Reports |

The 2Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We took over the preparation of this market area study for them in 2Q 06.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

An excerpt

…In continuation of last quarter’s market pattern, the pace of inventory growth and the pace in the decline in the number of sales continue to slow but still show weakening market conditions. The lower level of activity is reflective of stressed economic conditions and more stringent underwriting guidelines of mortgage lenders, who are requiring larger down payments, tighter ratios and higher credit scores. Despite a decline in activity, price indicators were essentially unchanged from the prior year quarter. There is an expectation of higher sales activity in the third quarter as spillover from the spring market activity closes in the summer months…

Download report: 2Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]



[East End] 1Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

April 30, 2008 | 1:39 pm | | Reports |

The online version of the Prudential Douglas Elliman 1Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download.

I have been writing various incarnations of the New York regional market report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

To build Hamptons/North Fork custom data tables

To view Hamptons/North Fork charts

An excerpt

…Both median and average sales price indicators were above levels reached in the prior year quarter. There was an upward skew in average sales price not seen in the change in median sales price, which was $790,000 up 1.9% over the prior year period median sales price of $775,000. The average sales price was $1,728,610 this quarter, up 16.8% above the prior year quarter, the second highest quarterly average sales price after the third quarter of 2007, which had an average sales price of $1,805,104.

Besides the rise in price indicators within the top 20% of the market, perhaps one of the more striking characteristics of the East End was the decline in overall number of sales. The lower volume of sales activity is largely attributable to the declining national economic climate, tighter credit and a weaker employment picture in the New York City financial services sector…

Download report: 1Q 2008 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]



1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

April 16, 2008 | 1:01 pm | | Reports |

The 1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We took over the preparation of this market area study for them in 2Q 06.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

An excerpt

..Price indicators for the quarter will mixed as compared to the same period a year ago. The average sales price was $514,135, up 3.6% while the median sales price of $435,000 was down 0.6%. The number of sales were down 14.1% to 6,015 units while inventory levels were up 10.2% to 35,209 units. A weaker economy and difficulties with access to credit have tempered the demand for housing compared to the past several years. The expansion of the days on market indicator and rising inventory levels are the result of reduced demand, yet the pace of inventory growth is easing. The next quarter tends to be the most active quarter of the year as characterized by elevated sales activity and price growth…

Download report: 1Q 2008 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]



[East End Round-up] 4Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

April 1, 2008 | 10:10 pm | | Reports |

Although it is April Fool’s Day, I realized I was negligent in posting the Hamptons/North Fork report on Matrix and my web site (hey, I know 1Q 08 is now over and I am working on that report.) The report was previously available at the Prudential Douglas Elliman site.

The PDF version of the 4Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. I have been writing various incarnations of my New York regional market report series for them since 1994.

In short order (by 1Q 08), I’ll be adding data tables and charts to the Miller Samuel web site.

An excerpt

…The average sales price of an East End property was $1,487,161 in the current quarter, up 17.6% from the $1,264,165 average sales price of the same period last year. Median sales price, which generally eliminates price outliers, showed a similar pattern. The median sales price was $800,000, an increase of 14.7% above the prior year quarter median sales price of $697,500. Over the past few years, the year over year pace of price growth in the third quarter has been larger than any other quarter of the year. The higher price levels reached in the third quarter have inferred quarter over quarter weakness going to the fourth quarter…Over the past year, the pace of price increases in the East End has been higher in the luxury sector…

Download report: 4Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]



[Food & Real Estate] Crain’s Economic Breakfast Forum

February 15, 2008 | 7:07 pm | | Public |

Last week I gave a recap an overview of the New York region at a recent Crain’s Economic Breakfast Forum at the New York Hyatt.

Click here for a 5 minute clip of the one hour session.


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4Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

February 8, 2008 | 11:40 am | | Reports |

The 4Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We introduced this market area study in 2Q 06 for them.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

_An excerpt_

…The overall median sales price for Long Island/Queens showed a decline over the prior year quarter. Over the same period, average sales price showed a similar pattern of decline as did the number of sales. Listing inventory continued to expand as did the days on market and listing discount indicators. These market patterns are being seen in many suburban markets across the country, made worse by the turmoil seen in the credit markets since last summer. This has impacted affordability with higher down payment requirements, and more stringent underwriting guidelines applied to buyer mortgage applications. A constraint on the flow of transactions has the effect of reducing the number of sales, which in turn raises inventory levels and tempers the potential for rising prices in the spring market…

Download report: 4Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]



[Introducing] 3Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview Available For Download

December 23, 2007 | 2:19 pm | | Reports |

Well, its been a long time coming because extracting data from the East End has been the most challenging of all the reports I have done to date, but the Hamptons/North Fork has finally been added to the family of market reports I prepare for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

The PDF version of the 3Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [Miller Samuel] is available for download. I have been writing various incarnations of this market report series for them since 1994.

In short order (by 4Q), I’ll be adding data tables and charts to the Miller Samuel web site.

An excerpt

…The average sales price of a residential property in the East End was $1,805,104 this quarter, up 32.7% from the prior year quarter average sales price of $1,360,515 and up 8.2% from the prior quarter average sales price of $1,668,657. The median sales price was $882,000, up 23% from the prior year quarter median sales price of $717,340 but slipped 2% from the $900,000 median sales price in the prior quarter. The nearly identical growth in these indicators from the prior year quarter suggests that average sales price was not significantly skewed by the upper end of the market. Listing inventory, however, increased 27.8% from the prior quarter total of 3,501 units to 4,475 units in the current quarter. The tracking of inventory levels for this report began in 2007….In contrast to the rise in price indicators, the number of sales continued to slip. There were 427 sales in the current quarter, down 30.5% from the prior year quarter total of 614 and down 31.6% from the prior quarter total of 624 units. The sharp increase in price levels has likely played a significant role in the diminished number of sales this quarter. This is also consistent with the recent increase in listing inventory…

Download report: 3Q 2007 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview [pdf]


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