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3Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

November 5, 2007 | 12:01 am | | Reports |

The 3Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We created this market area study in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

_An excerpt_

…Price trends varied widely by market and price segment. Inventory increased over the past year, but dropped as compared to the prior quarter as the number of sales has continued to decline. Average days on market and average listing discount expanded versus the prior year quarter but declined from the prior quarter. The mixed results for the quarter suggests that the overall Long Island/Queens market is moving “sideways” for the time being, with no clear pattern evident. The median sales price of a Long Island/Queens single family or condo was $445,000, down 2.2% from the prior year record median sales price of $455,000 and unchanged from the prior quarter median sales price. The average sales price was a record $530,916, up 1.3% from the record $524,073 seen in the prior year quarter and up 4.8% from the prior quarter average sales price of $506,580. Suffolk showed the most gains in average sales price with a record $469,331 average sales price, up 2.3% from the prior year quarter. Nassau was the next highest with a record $628,839 average sales price, up 1.7% from the prior year quarter. Queens showed the most weakness with a 2.9% decline to $484,847 from the record average sales price in the prior year quarter. The luxury market showed unexpected price growth this quarter as evidenced by the upper two quintiles in Suffolk and Nassau counties….

Download report: 3Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]



[In The Media] The Real Deal Clip for 7-30-07

July 30, 2007 | 10:44 am | | TV, Videos |

The Real Deal Magazine which has experienced phenomenal growth and is a must-read reasource for the New York housing market, has made a real commitment to the videocast format and delivers new video content on their web site every week. Look for my regular new podcast feature, coming soon.

I just released my 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview for Prudential Douglas Elliman and this interview covers the results, with emphasis on Queens. You can download a copy of the report.

To watch the videocast.


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2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

July 25, 2007 | 2:50 pm | | Radio |

The 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We created this market area study in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 2Q 2007 [2Q 2007 – to be uploaded shortly]). I have created a series of quarterly market charts that may also be of interest.

_An excerpt_

…Both average sales price and median sales price indicators approached stabilization, after two years of decline. However, changes in price levels varied by price strata and market area. The most notable price changes occurred in a weaker North Shore market and a stronger Queens condo market. Despite stabilizing prices, the overall number of sales fell across the entire region with the North Shore market being the only market to show a gain as compared to the same period last year. As a result of diminished demand, inventory levels have continued to rise, causing other market indicators like days on market and listing discount to expand. A decline in the overall number of sales in one of the most active quarters of the year suggests that the housing market may experience continued weakness in the near future…..

Download report: 2Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

Here’s a brief summary of the media coverage for the study. Its interesting to place the coverage side-by-side because its based on the same data.

Here’s the recap:

Queens-Long Island Home Prices Little Changed in Second Quarter [Bloomberg]
HARSH REALTY IN QUEENS. [New York Post]
LI, Queens housing sales still cool [Newsday]
LI, Queens housing sales still cool [amNew York]
Queens prices down in 2nd quarter [The Real Deal]
Queens Residential Market Drops, Except for the Pricey Stuff [Curbed]
Queens-Long Island Home Prices [Bloomberg Radio (no clip yet)]


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1Q 07 Westchester County, NY: From Sing Sing to Chappaqua

May 2, 2007 | 12:01 am |

The Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service, Inc. provides a quarterly analysis of the real estate market. Considered a suburb of New York City, Westchester County, NY along with Fairfield County, CT, Northern New Jersey and Long Island are an important part of the New York City real estate market. A Matrix reader suggested I provide a summary each time the report is released by the MLS.

Courtesy of WestchesterTowns

Westchester County is known for its higher end housing stock that serves as one of the primary markets to families that sell in the city and move to the suburbs. The second home market in New York has also benefited from empty-nesters who have sold their properties in Westchester and have moved to the city. Cities like White Plains and New Rochelle (Remember Rob and Laurie Petrrie?) have undergone downtown revitalization.

The number of sales are up, despite the increase in inventory. Prices show more weakness in 1-family and 2-5 family properties compared to the same period last year while co-op and condo prices are up slightly.




2007 FIRST QUARTER AND FULL YEAR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SALES REPORT [“sales statistics” link for pdf]

Here are excerpts from the report

Westchester’s residential real estate market evidenced strength in the first quarter of 2007 as the number of reported closed transactions increased by nearly 6% from those of a year ago. Realtors participating in the Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service reported 1,927 closings in Westchester in the first three months of the year, nearly achieving the first quarter record of 1,998 closings established in 2005. First quarter closings largely reflect sales activity in the late autumn and winter months.

Within that overall increase, however, the performance of individual property types varied widely. While single-family house sales increased by 11% and condominiums by 17%, co- op sales numbered 4.5% fewer than last year, and 2-5 family house sales were down by 17%. Further, in Putnam County, total sales were down by 20% from last year.

On a seasonally adjusted1 basis, because prior quarter sales volumes since 2005 had been trending downwards, the 2007 uptick produced an 18% increase from the prior quarter’s adjusted rate. The actual first quarter sales were equivalent to an annual rate of 10,250 sales in Westchester, which if sustained for the rest of the year would place 2007 on a par with the high-performing 2005 market.


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1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

April 23, 2007 | 12:03 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. We just introduced this study series in 2006.

You can see the methodology that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 1Q 2007). I have created a series of quarterly market charts that may be of interest as well.

_An excerpt_

…Overall price indicators showed weakness this quarter particularly at the higher end of the market. Overall median sales price showed relative stability as compared to the same period last year while average sales price showed a modest decline. Inventory levels are expected to level off as seasonal demand increases the number of sales. Current inventory levels remain below those seen in the second and third quarters of last year. However, the number of sales for the quarter is the lowest seen in three years suggesting a lower intensity of sales activity this spring, even when seasonally adjusted….

Download report: 1Q 2007 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]

Here’s the media coverage for the study. I think I got most of them. Normally I would have covered this the day of publication last week but if you remember, I was kind of in Seine.

Here’s the recap:

Bloomberg News
The Real Deal
New York Observer
Newsday
Crain’s New York

WPIX CW11
Bloomberg Television – In Focus

Bloomberg Radio
Bloomberg Radio


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4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview Available For Download

February 7, 2007 | 8:20 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing market reports for them since 1994. This market coverage is a relative newcomer to the series.

You can see the [methodology]) that went into the report.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 2Q 2003 through 4Q 2006). I plan on creating a series of quarterly market charts like we have for Manhattan.

_An excerpt_

…Sales prices in the overall market remained relatively stable, kept in check by rising demand and declining inventory. With the cash-out phenomenon waning as existing homeowners, who were not priced at market levels allowed their listings to expire. This has helped clear clutter in the market for buyers. At the same time, sellers appear to be more negotiable this quarter as the listing discount increase at the same time the number of sales did. Lower end price points like the condo market were generally stable but there was weakness in price levels at the upper end of the market, as evidenced by the North Shore and luxury sectors, which saw lower prices at the upper strata but, interestingly, some of the highest increases in the number of sales over the past year…

Download report: 4Q 2006 Long Island/Queens Market Overview [pdf]


4Q 06 Westchester County, NY: From Sing Sing to Chappaqua

January 31, 2007 | 12:01 am | |

[The Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service, Inc. provides a quarterly analysis of the real estate market. Considered a suburb of New York City, Westchester County, NY along with Fairfield County, CT, Northern New Jersey and Long Island are an important part of the New York City real estate market. A Matrix reader suggested I provide a summary each time the report is released by the MLS.]

Courtesy of WestchesterTowns

Westchester County (remember Chappaqua, where President Clinton purchased?) is known for its higher end housing stock that serves as one of the primary markets to families that sell in the city and move to the suburbs. The second home market in New York has also benefited from empty-nesters who have sold their properties in Westchester and have moved to the city.

On the flip side, the county is also known for its high real estate taxes, its maximum security state prison, Sing Sing, and a nuclear power plant, Indian Point.

In reviewing the charts, I was struck by how high current sales levels actually are, how pricing appeared to drift sideways with some weakness during the year and how sharply inventory dropped, even though it is still higher than last year.




2006 FOURTH QUARTER AND FULL YEAR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE SALES REPORT [“sales statistics” link for pdf]

Here are excerpts from the report

Westchester’s multi-year run-up to record-high residential real estate sales and prices in 2005 abruptly halted in 2006. Realtors participating in the Westchester-Putnam Multiple Listing Service reported 9,167 closed sales in Westchester in 2006, a decrease of 13% from 2005. In Putnam County, the 1,001 sales for the year constituted a 23% decrease from 2005.

The signals of possible contraction in the local real estate market were evidenced in the seasonally adjusted data from as early as the third quarter of 2005. Nevertheless, the speed and depth of the contraction as it actually occurred early in the first quarter of 2006 caught the market by surprise, and the downturn persisted through the year.

The 2006 sales volume reset the market to levels last experienced in 2002 and 2003. Those were actually good years for real estate on an historical basis. However, Westchester’s overall backsliding of 13% in sales volume would have been greater were it not for the relatively moderate slowdown in the condominium and cooperative sectors in comparison to single family houses. Whereas house sales dropped nearly 17% from 2005 to 2006, condo sales decreased by less than 1%, and co-ops by only 9%.

Westchester’s year-end inventory of 5,774 units in all categories was 21% higher than at the end of 2005, and that percentage applied fairly uniformly among the major property types. In Putnam County there were 943 units available at the end of the year, a 15% increase from 2005.

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Long Island 3Q 2006 Is Available for Download

December 1, 2006 | 12:31 am | | Public |

Miller Samuel has been producing real estate reports covering the Manhattan market on behalf of Prudential Douglas Elliman for more than 12 years. With a lot of great data out there, it remains a mystery to me why Long Island has not been analyzed like so many other markets in the region have. With roughly 10,000 transactions per quarter, its a substantial market area.

Beginning with the 2nd quarter of this year and now the 3rd quarter, the Long Island Market Overview (LiMO) has been created and is now on track to be released on a timely basis beginning with the 4th quarter 2006 version shortly after the quarter ends.

but I digress…

The LiMO report covers the Queens, Nassau, Suffolk, North Shore, Luxury (top 10%) and Condo markets. The Hamptons and the North Fork are unique enough to warrant a separate report, which is currently in development. Other markets are slated to follow.

excerpt

…The current quarter provided a marked change from the prior quarter results. The average sales price and median sales price showed modest gains, the number of sales increased after a year of steady activity, listing inventory appears to have leveled off, the time it takes to sell a residential property has remained consistent, and sellers are slightly more negotiable. Sellers appear to be more in tune with market conditions, which would explain the combination of larger listing discounts and rising prices, the increase in the number of sales, and stabilizing inventory. Since the seasonal expectations of the next quarter are defined by lower number of sales and weaker price levels, the first quarter of next year will provide a better indicator as to whether the current quarter was an anomaly or the beginning of a new market trend of listing stabilization…

Download the 3Q 2006 Long Island Market Overview.

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