Since housing market trends are all about seasonality, I thought it was interesting that the Manhattan residential vacancy rate seems devoid of such patterns.
What am I missing here?
I had a nice reflective discussion with Scarlet Fu and Caroline Hyde, reflecting on two milestones in New York City – 9/11 and the financial crisis.
Miller Samuel CEO Says Credit Conditions Haven’t Normalized Since Lehman
September 11th, 2018, 3:48 PM EDT
Jonathan Miller, president and chief executive officer of Miller Samuel Inc., takes a look at the state of the U.S. housing market 10 years after the financial crisis of 2008. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde and Scarlet Fu on “Bloomberg Markets: The Close.” (Source: Bloomberg)
The Fall 2018 Issue of Elliman Magazine was just released and as usual, I provided a two-page spread showing interesting (my definition, lol) of what is going on in some of the markets under their national footprint. The magazine is well done and a fun aspirational read.
Here’s the full online version of the magazine:
Tags: Elliman Magazine
PBS Nightly Business Report clip
[Story with 2 clips begins at 18:20]
CNBC’s Diana Olick reports on luxury home sales dropping in NYC due to tax laws and fewer international buyers.
It is past the middle of August so it was odd to see that the Wall Street Journal ran a story that covered a new “half-year” report by a brokerage firm on the Manhattan luxury market from January 2018 to June 2018. But it was a good story nevertheless.
Almost two months had passed since that reporting period so CNBC reached out to me in response to talk about our already released first and second quarter Elliman Reports, as a segway to the luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers record earnings release.
More importantly, I didn’t wear a tie at the 30Rock studio interview. Hey, it’s summer.
I enjoyed my sit down with Vonnie Quinn and Shery Ahn on Bloomberg Markets yesterday. The discussion focused on the release of the Elliman Report: Q2-2018 Manhattan Sales that I have authored since 1994 and the Bloomberg story that covered it.
Every seasonal edition, Douglas Elliman Real Estate asks me to provide a visual market update for their magazine in any 5 of the markets they cover nationwide. The following graphic is found in their latest Elliman Magazine.
Click on the following graphic to see my charts in all their majesty.
Tags: Elliman Magazine
I’m a bit late to post this interview but the content is still relevant since it addresses the sales slowdown we are seeing across the NYC metro area. I had a fun conversation with Bloomberg’s Julie Hyman and Julia Chatterley on “Bloomberg Markets.”
So I was walking down Fifth Avenue in Midtown Manhattan in the late morning after a meeting and got a call from Bloomberg TV. Apparently, two different stories that featured two of the market reports I author – published by Douglas Elliman – were the number one and two most emailed on the Bloomberg Terminals worldwide. They wanted to talk about them.
So I took a left and walked over Bloomberg HQ. Got to speak with Vonnie Quinn and Shery Ahn on set – who knew how to make an interview go well.
After controlling the Manhattan housing market for quite a while, sellers and landlords exchanged roles with buyers and tenants circa 2015.
After peaking in 3Q 2015, the market share of bidding wars fell by two thirds. Bidding wars remain more common at lower price points. After bottoming in the 3Q 2015, the market share of rentals with landlord concessions has expanded sharply due to high-end rental development over-building. But like the sales market, the oversupply remains at the upper end.
Sunday, December 31, 2017, was a trifecta of my New York Times Real Estate market insight goodness before the year ended:
Landlords and Sellers Adjust [New York Times: Calculator column]
Manhattan Prices Stable in 2017, Even as Luxury Takes a Breather [New York Times: Big Ticket column]
Ditching the Tub [New York Times]
For those of you that read my weekly Housing Notes, you’ll know I refer to 2014 as “Peak New Development” for the Manhattan housing market. “Peak Luxury” works as a label too.
Bloomberg news broke the story that a $50M+ condo purchased in 2014 just sold at a foreclosure auction for $36,000,0000. There were five bidders. It’s been the fourth resale since the market peaked and the sixth overall – so I created a graphic of all the resales to show how they fared before and after the 2014 “peak.”
The Bloomberg story (that I got to chime in on) lays out the details of the One57 auction sale: One57 Foreclosure Shatters Price Dreams at Billionaires’ Tower
The story reached #1 as the most read on the 350k± Bloomberg Terminals worldwide yesterday.
It is important to remember that there are still a fair amount of units remaining that are priced at 2014 levels. Extell, the developer, has their work cut out for them to compete with current market conditions.
While One57 is a symbolic poster child for the new dev phenomenon, it is not a proxy for the entire new development market. Some projects were priced more reasonably at the peak, hence they haven’t fallen as much. In addition, the quality and design of each project can vary greatly. One thing is clear – since the 2014 peak, investors don’t have the same potential for big and fast returns on flips – their initial strategy was to buy early and realize instant equity as the sponsor increased the offering prices. That scenario no longer applies. Since the market has more choices for buyers now than it did back during peak, One57 is no longer seen as a “new” building like it was back then.
CNBC picked up the story – My firm and I get a shoutout during the conversation on Sqawkbox which was pretty cool.
And here’s the transcript on yesterday’s PBS Nightly Business Report show (owned by CNBC) with the shoutout that is making the rounds.
I had a fun conversation on Bloomberg Television with Scarlet Fu, Joe Weisenthal and Julia Chatterley. We were discussing the results of our research behind the Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales 3Q17 that was just released. Here is the Bloomberg story on the report results.
Here’s a portion of the interview.
If you’d like to see the whole segment, my interview starts at the 48:40 mark although I really like the format and the hosts so you might want to watch the whole show.