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[Presidential Reporting] 3Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

October 6, 2008 | 7:55 pm | | Reports |

The 3Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released on Friday.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 3Q 2008 data and a series of updated charts are also available

An excerpt

…The average price per square foot of all new development was $1,320 this quarter, down 1.5% from the prior year quarter. The average price per square foot of a re-sale apartment was up 4.3% to $1,142 per square foot as the bulk of higher end new development has been absorbed while higher end re-sale properties continue to sell…The impact of the credit contraction, associated volatility in the financial markets, as well as unprecedented government bailouts on a federal level have not shown up in the market data for the quarter. The key metrics to consider going forward are the lower level of sales activity compared to last year’s record levels and the rise of inventory. The reduction in affordable mortgage products continues to hamper buyers in New York as well as most housing markets across the country. The upcoming quarter begins with modest inventory levels and the likelihood of a reduction in new development units entering the housing stock next year due to the credit contraction….

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting way to look at how this information is interpreted and presented.

The media coverage of the report was provided here as they were released (in no particular order). The headlines selected provide an interesting media perspective of the report contents since everyone was working off the same information.

[In The Media] Bloomberg TV On The Economy 10-3-08

October 5, 2008 | 8:16 pm | | TV, Videos |

Always a pleasure to be on with Kathleen Hays and her show On The Economy.

She was multi-tasking big time before and during the interview. While I was sitting with her, but before I was interviewed, the bailout bill was passed by the House. She interviewed House Speaker, Stemy Hoyer, live. And then during the my interview, she announced the president had signed the bill into law and later announced when the president went over to the US Treasury to congratulate its employees.

What a circus. Yet she is always calm and relaxed.

Here’s the clip

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[In The Media] CNBC Squawk Box 10-3-08

October 5, 2008 | 6:25 pm | | TV, Videos |

We released the 3Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview on Friday for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

CNBC offered to have me come to their studio in NJ, which is a terrific facility, but I had a tight schedule as a result of the report release and opted to do this at 30 Rock.

We’ll have the formal report here on Monday afternoon. The unanticipated frenzy of coverage put me a little behind schedule. I had hoped to post the report on Friday. Oh, well.

Here’s the clip

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[In The Media] Bloomberg TV – On The Economy Housing Starts And Fits

July 19, 2008 | 9:07 am | | Public |

Thursday I was on with Kathleen Hays at Bloomberg News, one of the best business anchors on television, to talk about housing starts. I was joined by Beth Pierce, of the California Association of Realtors (CAR) and owner of her own brokerage and mortgage companies. I thought she provided refreshing candor.

At one point I was asked a question about the change in NYC building codes and how it accounted for the surge in starts which helped skew the national numbers. I experienced a senior moment because my answer pertained to the recent expiration of a long time tax abatement program that had stimulated new development rather than talking about building codes. Sigh.

Here’s more info on the NYC building code change.

On the bright side, I got my first ever tv interview teaser earlier in the day. Gotta love Bloomberg News!

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[In The Media] The Real Deal Interview For 7-7-2008

July 7, 2008 | 11:53 am | | Public |

To view clip

Always a pleasure. At least I put away my books.


[In The Media] PDE TV Conversation With Dottie Herman

July 7, 2008 | 12:20 am | | Public |

Jonathan Miller, President & CEO, Miller Samuel
Dottie Herman, President & CEO, Prudential Douglas Elliman

To hear the clip.

I have been writing a series of markets reports covering the New York region for about 14 years via Prudential Douglas Elliman. It’s been a lot of fun to do them, especially in a market that lives, breathes, eats and sleeps real estate. The popularity of our neutral report series continues to motivate us to expand the geography and types of property it covers. Can we say Brooklyn, finally?

Last week we released the 2Q 08 Manhattan Market Overview. One of the recent efforts to bring the results and interpretation of the market to the consumer and the real estate industry is by a video conversation on the market, which Dottie and I began last quarter.

Call me crazy, but I always find it refreshing to hear candor rather than processed press release speak.

Catch the subliminal green blip near the end of the clip? Are you suddenly hungry for pizza?

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[In The Media] Bloomberg TV Interview for 7-2-08

July 2, 2008 | 11:22 pm | | Public |

This afternoon I was invited to appear on Bloomberg Television’s In Focus program to recap the results of the 2Q 08 Manhattan Market Overview I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman.

Here’s the clip.

I enjoy appearing on Bloomberg because they are so darn efficient. No awkwardness in any aspect of their facilities.

Nice people to deal with too, and of course, a free snack bar (incidentally, Fig Newtons rule)


[Party Like Its 2009] 2Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

July 2, 2008 | 11:58 am | | Public |

The 2Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The data and a series of charts are also available

An excerpt

…Like the prior quarter, fewer sales occurred compared to the prior year quarter, but more than the corresponding quarter two years prior. There were 3,081 co-op and condo sales collected at the close of the quarter, down 21.8% from the prior year quarter. The decline in activity was evenly spread across coop and condo property types with the lower level of demand related to tighter credit and a weaker economy. With tighter credit conditions for market participants existing today as compared to last year, it is reasonable to expect a lower level of activity relative to 2007 for the remainder of 2008. In fact, there were more co-op and condo sales in 2007 than in any other year over the past 20 years…

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting way to look at how this information is interpreted and presented.

The media coverage of the report will be provided here as they are released over the week (in no particular order).

Manhattan Second-Quarter Apartment Sales Fall by 22% (Update1) [Bloomberg]
Manhattan apartment prices zoom but more on market [Reuters]
Wall Street’s ills weaken Manhattan apartment sales [NY Daily News]
Curbed Roundtable: July State O’ the Market Report [Curbed]
Manhattan housing prices edge up, but sales slow [The Real Deal]
The High-End End? [New York Observer]
Manhattan apartment sales drop, but prices climb [Associated Press/Businessweek]
Manhattan housing market slows [Crains New York Business]
Manhattan real estate starts to soften [CNN/Money]
Apartment Sales Remain Vigorous in Manhattan [New York Times]
City Housing Slump May Hit In 2009 [New York Sun]
Sales still falling in Manhattan [Inman News]

[July 2, 2008] Bloomberg TV

[July 2, 2008] NY1 TV


[In The Media] Lawline Clip for 5-22-08

May 29, 2008 | 3:47 pm | | Public |

Back in March, I was invited back to do another appearance on Lawline TV. I had the pleasure of appearing with Jacky Teplitsky of Prudential Douglas Elliman. Alan Schnurman has been hosting this show for nearly 30 years I believe. He’s good interviewer and apparently a very successful real estate investor.

This interview was done before I had compiled my Q1 08 stats but it wouldn’t have changed the content of my presentation.

View the clip (There is no direct link to the interview so look for “The Impact of Economic Downturn on the Real Estate Market”)


[In The Media] PBS Nightly Business Report Clip for 5-6-08

May 7, 2008 | 12:15 am | Public |

I was interviewed by Suzanne Pratt of the long running PBS Nightly Business Report that was broadcast last night. She was covering the New York part of a five city series called A Tale of 5 Cities that covers Washington, DC, New York, Detroit, Silicon Valley and South Florida.

My immediate thought after watching the first segment (on tuesday) concerned a comment someone made that went something like:

…when the housing market stabilizes….

I am trying to figure out what that phrase really means. In other words, does that mean the rate of sales will level off, the pace of sales decline will ease, sales prices will flatten, the pace of sales decline will level off, permits will rise, inventory will level off, etc.

And what is going to get better in the short term to make the market reach a bottom, however it is defined? For the life of me, I don’t know right now. Affordability would be the obvious choice but tighter credit has made it necessary for housing prices to fall further before affordability is on par with a year or two ago. More time needs to pass and more things need to shake out.

Here’s the PBS Nightly Business Report broadcast (4:36).

UPDATE: View the transcript

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[Transition Report] 1Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

April 2, 2008 | 12:02 am | | Public |

The 1Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The data and a series of charts will be uploaded today as well.

An excerpt

…The elevated pace of sales from the past 5 quarters cools as the volatility in the financial markets begins to touch Manhattan. Based on activity in the first quarter it is likely that the record number of sales in 2007 will not be repeated in 2008. Sales in the current quarter declined to levels seen two years ago. The reduction of available credit, less favorable mortgage terms, the national economy moving towards a recession and the specter of additional layoffs in the financial services sector over the next two years has begun to restrain the demand for Manhattan residential real estate. Still, the regional economy is performing well, tourism and hotel occupancy rates are at or near record levels and the New York City government is financially well positioned for the next two years. The US dollar has set new lows against several currencies, which continues to bring new sources of demand, with specific emphasis on condo new development projects….

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting experience.

The media coverage of the report will be provided here as they are released over the week.

Manhattan Apartment Prices Hit Record High Despite Slump [NYT]
Housing Slump — in New York ? [WSJ]
Manhattan Condo, Co-op Sales Decline Most in 18 Years (Update2) [Bloomberg]
Trouble in the sky-rise? [The Economist]
Co-op, condo sales dive in Manhattan [NY Daily News]
Manhattan apartment prices increase [The Real Deal]
Manhattan Home Sales Slow, Prices Rise [AP]
Manhattan apartment prices rise but sales fall [Reuters]
First Quarter Reports: Real Estate Cooling [New York Sun]
Average Manhattan home hits record $1.6 million [CNN/Money]
Manhattan apartments: prices up, sales down [Crain’s]
First Quarter Market Reports: Prices Up, Sales Down [Curbed]
Condos Ascendant! But What Price Victory? [New York Observer]
Manhattan Apartments Remain Pricey, Slowdown Ahead [Gothamist]
NYC home sales drop [Times Leader (PA)]
Housing Market Tracker – It’s About Affordability, Stupid.[Seeking Alpha]
Manhattan Home Sales Slow, Prices Rise [Huffington Post]
Manhattan apartment sales drop off in 1st quarter, but prices still climb due to luxury sales [MN Star Tribune]
Real estate data show market cooling [Metro.US]
Property in Manhattan at an 18 year Low [Investment Markets]
What Slump? Manhattan Housing Prices Hit Record High [NY1]

Radio and TV clips

[April 2, 2008] CNN en Espanol
[April 2, 2008] Bloomberg TV
[April 2, 2008] NY 1
April 2, 2008] Bloomberg Radio

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1998-2007 Manhattan Market Report Available For Download

March 16, 2008 | 2:05 pm | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1998-2007 Manhattan Market Report [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for PDE since 1994. The report is the aggregate of the four previous quarterly reports.

More than 90,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,400 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas was analyzed with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix with prior year and prior decade comparisons.

“The Phone Book” is heavy on numbers and charts and light on text.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

An excerpt

…The average sales price of a Manhattan apartment set a record for the 11th consecutive year. In 1996, the unadjusted average sales price was $399,501. The 2007 average sales price was $1,351,621, up 4.3% over the prior year record of $1,295,445 and up 238.3% from the average sales price in 1996, when this trend began. However, the pace of price growth has slowed for the second consecutive year. After a recent high water market of 21.6% price growth in 2005, the pace of overall price growth slowed to 6.1% in 2006 and 4.3% in 2007. There were a record 13,430 sales in 2007, a 58.1% increase over the 2006 total of 8,493 sales. The 2006 number of sales total had been consistent with the 8,510 average annual number of sales over the preceding decade. The significant increase in the number of sales this year resulted in a 13.5% drop in inventory levels. Without the addition of new development to the housing stock in 2007, the decline is re-sale inventory was more pronounced. There was a 26.2% year over year decline in the number of co-op apartments listed for sale, yet the number of condo units was unchanged. Co-op apartments are primarily comprised of re-sales because new development entering the market is nearly exclusive to condo property types. The year over year change in condo inventory was 0% indicating that the sharp decline in re-sale inventory seen in the co-op market was offset by new development condo inventory being added to the market….

Download report: 1998-2007 Manhattan Market Report [pdf]

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