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Manhattan

1998-2007 Manhattan Townhouse Report Available For Download

March 16, 2008 | 1:14 pm | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1998-2007 Manhattan Townhouse Report that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing various reports on the New York region since 1994.

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

An excerpt

Over 2,500 Manhattan residential townhouse transactions were analyzed over this ten year period. 1, 2 and 3-5 (delivered vacant) family houses comprised the data set.

…The average sales price of a Manhattan townhouse was a record $4,658,155 in 2007, up 14.1% from the prior year record average sales price of $4,082,837. The 2007 record is more than twice, or 116.5% higher than the $2,151,653 average sales price in 1998. Median sales price showed a similar pattern. The median sales price for 2007 was a record $3,125,000, up 15.7% from the prior year record median sales price of $2,700,000. Because the average square footage of townhouses dropped sharply in the past year, the average price per square foot jumped over the same period. Average price per square foot reached a record $1,137 in 2007, up 32.8% above the $856 price per square foot seen in 2006. This indicator is 145% above the $464 average price per square foot in 1998. Other than the decline seen from 2000 to 2001, the price per square foot has been the same or higher than the prior year for the past decade….

Download report: 1998-2007 Manhattan Townhouse Report [pdf]



[In The Media] Bloomberg TV Clip For 3-12-08

March 12, 2008 | 10:39 pm | | Public |

Here’s an interview I did on Bloomberg TV today. About 6:30 minutes which was flattering. I was wondering if I would be bumped because NY Governor Spitzer’s resignation press conference was immediately preceding the spot. Basically a general overview of Manhattan and the region right now.

Here’s the clip.


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Crains New York Business Economic Spotlight Chart – February 2008

February 25, 2008 | 12:01 am | | Charts |

I have had the pleasure of providing a monthly chart for the Economic Spotlight section of Crain’s New York Business magazine since September 2003. Here is the latest, which appears in the current issue of Crain’s New York Business.

Source: Crain’s New York Business

Go here for a complete archive of my Crains’s New York Economic Spotlight charts that have been published. They are organized by year.


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[Food & Real Estate] Crain’s Economic Breakfast Forum

February 15, 2008 | 7:07 pm | | Public |

Last week I gave a recap an overview of the New York region at a recent Crain’s Economic Breakfast Forum at the New York Hyatt.

Click here for a 5 minute clip of the one hour session.


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[Contrarian Report] 4Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview

January 19, 2008 | 1:28 am | | Radio |

The 4Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released earlier this month. I neglected to post this on Matrix earlier because [insert excuse here]. Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The data and a series of charts are also available.

About two years ago, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting process.

Here was some of report coverage based on the same data (you get the idea):

The Link List

The New York Times Wall Street Journal Bloomberg New York Daily News The New York Post CNN/Money Reuters The Real Deal Financial Times The New York Observer Inman News Pravda New York Magazine The Guardian (UK) Gothamist

Radio and TV clips

[January 3, 2008] WNBC-TV
[January 3, 2008] Bloomberg – On The Economy
[January 3, 2008] WCBS
[January 3, 2008] WPIX
[January 3, 2008] Fox 5 TV
[January 3, 2008] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2008] WABC TV
[January 3, 2008] WNBC HD TV
[January 3, 2008] NY -1
[January 3, 2008] Fox Business Network
WCBS Radio
NPR Radio


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3Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

October 29, 2007 | 2:04 pm | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 3Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994.

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 3Q 2007) and view a series of quarterly market charts, most related to the current market report.

An excerpt

…Manhattan remains contrarian, but with reasonable expectations The high level of sales activity, combined with declining inventory levels, listing discounts and marketing times has not resulted in significant price appreciation year to date. This suggests a market psyche containing reasonable expectations of both buyers and sellers. This is a significant departure from the contentious conditions between market participants seen in the past several years, evidenced by patterns of sharply rising prices and declining sales. Buyers were being priced out the market and sellers had been conditioned to a rapidly appreciating market over the prior five years. In addition, Wall Street mortgage and credit market problems that appeared in mid-July and August have yet to show an impact in market data for the current quarter. Existing mortgage underwriting guidelines have become more strictly enforced with fewer exceptions allowed. A lower number of mortgage options and higher qualifying requirements for buyers is expected to temper the flow of sales activity…

Download report: 3Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]



[Business 360] Manhattan Contrarian Conditions Explained

October 21, 2007 | 11:48 am | |

Over the past 6 years, the consultants at Business360 have been providing an analysis on the Manhattan real estate market. Its based on the aggregate market data Miller Samuel publishes in the public domain. I normally don’t plug anything, but since I am not paid for providing them information (the story of my life) nor do I benefit financially from their efforts here, I thought i’d mention it. I do get a free copy of their report.

Their record is pretty good.

I have gained key insights from their analysis, plus John Marchant, one of the principals, I have met and is a sharp guy.

For $199, its worth checking out. Here’s their press release.



[Crunch Report] 3Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview

October 2, 2007 | 11:23 pm | | Radio |

The 3Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [pretty version will be posted later this week] that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. The report is prepared in the same manner as in quarters past but in association with Radar Logic, where i am the director of research.

The numbers were released and my summary of their interpretation were provided to the media for the coverage today. The actual data and charts will be available later this week as well.

More than a year ago, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting process.

This list of articles is presented basically when I found them. I also include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story – I place those near the bottom because of the repetition. I’ll keep adding links through the end of the week.

The Link List

Manhattan Home Prices Rise 2.3% on Luxury Condo Sales [Bloomberg]
Home Prices Buck Trend, for Now [New York Times]
Manhattan continues to buck U.S. housing trend [Reuters]
Manhattan housing boom continues [CNN/Money]
Manhattan apartment market prices hit record high [New York Daily News]
Manhattan Apartment Prices Soar, Bucking the Trend [CNBC]
MANHATTAN CONDOS $KYROCKET [New York Post]
Manhattan Housing Market Still Sturdy, For Now [TheStreet.com]
Manhattan housing market still healthy [The Real Deal]
No City For the Young [The Real Estate/New York Observer]
Manhattan real estate bubble hasn’t burst [Newsday]
Your Morning Credit Crunch: Manhattan Stays Bullish [Curbed]
Manhattan real estate sales, prices still climbing [Inman News]
Pre-Credit Crunch Apartment Prices Increase Real Estate [New York Sun]
NYC Real Estate Prices Strong – For Now [Gothamist]
No Surprises In Manhattan Real Estate Poll [NY Press]
Manhattan housing prices in record high [Construction Digital, UK]

Radio and TV clips

[October 2, 2007] CNBC

[October 2, 2007] Bloomberg Television

[October 2, 2007] NY1 News

[October 2, 2007] Bloomberg Radio


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A New York Story: Pop Goes The Country

September 18, 2007 | 10:11 am | | Public |

The bi-annual real estate issue of New York Magazine had been talking about a crash since 2003. However this year, they apply a more reasonable discussion to the burning question: Why is New York different and how long will it last? (since their new owners took over a few years ago, editorial content has returned the magazine to “must-read status”).

Aside: Of course I love the fact that the average sales price for Manhattan 2Q 2007 presented in the Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview that my firm authors of $1,333,316 is on the cover (something about loving numbers).

While I am not in total agreement with all the content, it is a refreshing approach because the article tries to present both sides in a best and worst case scenario format. The take away is weighted toward the pessimistic view.

There is discussion of

Hyman Minsky’s ingenious model of asset bubbles, economic stability breeds riskier and riskier investors: First come the “hedge borrowers,” who play with their own money; they are followed by “speculative borrowers,” who have enough cash flow to keep the lender at bay but not enough to cover the principal investment, and finally “Ponzi borrowers,” who are, as the name suggests, borrowing to refinance other debts they can’t meet, in the wild hope that the market will keep climbing.

Of course, New York had very little speculation during the New York housing boom so this applies more to borrowing habits of market participants.

The article references economists I admire and have quoted in the past: Joseph Gyourko, Christopher Mayer, Todd Sinai, Edward Glaeser, Robert Shiller and Nouriel Roubini (whenever I am feeling too optimistic) plus several others. Brad Inman coins the phrase: “Irish Effect.” They also included my friend Noah Rosenblatt, who runs Urbandigs.com and is someone I recently discussed the housing market for hours after midnight on the tarmac of Atlantic City’s airport on a grounded jetBlue flight from the recent San Francisco Inman conference (how cool is that?).

Worst Case: In this scenario, a full-fledged credit crunch rips through the system. The August employment figures, showing no growth for the first time in four years, are the beginning of a serious downward trend. The economy heads for a hard landing, and an all-out recession ensues.

Best Case: In this instance, the current liquidity problem is contained by the end of the year. Employment figures pick up in September. Global growth continues.

A correction to the article is needed: The widely quoted Case Shiller Index doesn’t include co-op and condo sales as indicated in the article, which is 96.9% of the Manhattan sales market, nor does it include new development and foreclosures.

This just in: Lehman’s net declines, but less than analysts expectations.


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1997-2006 Manhattan Townhouse Report Available For Download

September 13, 2007 | 12:12 am | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1997-2006 Manhattan Townhouse Report that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing this market report series for them since 1994.

Admittedly I am a little embarrassed that I let the report languish as we were sidetracked on other projects. A few months ago I decided to finally update the series and insert it back into a regular release schedule. It will be released shortly after the beginning of the year with the 2007 market data.

I am happy with the result since this level of detail hasn’t been presented before.

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

An excerpt

…The Manhattan townhouse market is a fixed form of residential housing stock that has very few new structures added due to limited acceptance of new construction. It accounted for 2.8% of all the sales over the past ten years, with a 3.1% market share in 2006. The average square footage was 4,188 in 2006, the average width was 19.1 feet and the average number of stories was 3.9. Over the past ten years, there has been a significant increase in market share of Uptown townhouses, growing from 6.2% of all townhouse sales in 1997 to 45.1% in 2006. The average sales price of a townhouse, excluding Uptown, was $6,398,223 in the current year, up 14.5% from the prior year average sales price of $5,587,277 in 2005 and up 251.2% from the $1,821,980 average sales price in 1997…

Download report: 1997-2006 Manhattan Townhouse Report [pdf]



2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

July 8, 2007 | 7:30 pm | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994.

Here is some additional information from Prudential Douglas Elliman’s CEO/President Dottie Herman covering the 2Q 07 report release. Since she purchased PDE four years ago, she has been unwavering in her support of my requirement to remain independent in the preparation of these reports (and of course, it goes without saying that I am also able to remain dull and boring).

In addition, you can see the methodology that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 2Q 2007) and view a series of quarterly market charts, most related to the current market report.

An excerpt

…The number of Manhattan apartment sales are at record levels. Listing inventory has fallen sharply from recent highs. Two of three price indicators tracked in this study set records. Days on market and listing discount indicators are contracting. In contrast, national housing statistics, while not reflective of individual markets, show just the opposite. The New York City economy continues to show improvement coming after two consecutive years of record Wall Street bonus payouts. Preliminary indicators from the financial services sector show more of the same strength bonus income in the coming year. Mortgage rates are low despite recent increases. The government is running a budget surplus, unemployment is low and the weak dollar has brought in significant foreign investment. The constant in the demand/supply equation has been new development activity, whose pace has not abated for the past three years. It contributed to the rise in inventory levels of 2005 and 2006, but the significant demand has more than offset new product added to the market in 2007. The relatively inelastic short term response to demand suggests that the high level of demand is something to focus on for the remainder of the year and through 2008.

Download report: 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]


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[In The Media] TheStreet.com TV Clip for 7-3-07

July 5, 2007 | 10:01 pm | Public |

Nicholas Yulico is a staff reporter for TheStreet.com covering real estate and gaming in his column “Bricks & Mortar.”

This was one of 3 video clips I taped on the day the market report was released (7/3) so bear with me.

Play the clip (preceeded by a short commercial).


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