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Manhattan

[In The Media] MarketWatch TV Clip for 7-3-07

July 5, 2007 | 9:42 pm | Public |

I always enjoy visiting the MarketWatch set. Its small, but efficient and everyone is professional (and has the best air conditioning of any set I’ve been on). I understand they get a lot of web traffic on their real estate video coverage. Paul Lin interviewed me this time. Always fun to do.

View the clip.


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[In The Media] Bloomberg TV – On The Money Clip for 7-3-07

July 4, 2007 | 10:59 pm | | Public |

Video clip for Manhattan Market 2Q 2007 [Part I]

The interview touches on the key characteristics of the Manhattan real estate market this quarter and its contrarian position as compared to the national real estate market. In these clips, I was first interviewed by Kathleen Hays, who is an accomplished journalist. I have been interviewed by her before and she is very sharp, and also very good at making her guests feel relaxed, so she gets more out of the interview.

Bloomberg does a really great job at interconnecting their media properties. For example, when their newswire posts a story, the story is also covered on television and radio.

Here’s the second interview:

This is a subsequent interview where Kathleen interviews me as well as Elaine Clayman, a senior broker at Brown Harris Stevens.

Video clip for Manhattan Market 2Q 2007 results [Part II]


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[Media Pre-Holiday BBQ Coverage] 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview

July 3, 2007 | 2:26 pm | | Public |

My firm released the 2Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview [pretty version will be posted on Thursday] that we author for Prudential Douglas Elliman today. Its about all I have done over the past week, except for the quality time spent with my new iPhone, prepping for our family’s clam bake on July 4th and riding into Manhattan in an RV with the Joe and Rudy from Sellsius, so I have been largely absent from Matrix since the middle of last week.

The numbers were released and my summary of their interpretation were provided to the media for the coverage today. The actual data and charts will be available Thursday as well.

A little over a year ago, I began posting the links to the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting process.

This list of articles is presented basically when I found them. I also include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story – I place those near the bottom because of the repetition. I’ll keep adding links through the end of the week.

The Link List

Manhattan Co-Op Prices Fall as Buyers Favor Condos [Bloomberg]
Manhattan apartments brush off U.S. housing slump [Reuters]
Co-ops Slip, but Condos Lead Rise in Manhattan Apartment Prices [NY Times]
New York home prices: No place but up [CNN/Money]
WALL ST. FUELS RUN IN APT. SALES [NY Post]
Manhattan apt. sales rise [NY Daily News]
Weak Dollar Fuels City Real Estate [NY Sun]
NYC a Bright Spot in Dismal U.S. Real Estate Market [TheStreet.com]
Manhattan Residential Market Indicates High Sales Volume, Declining Inventory, Rising Prices and Shorter Time on Market [RISMedia]
Curbed Roundtable: July State O’ the Market Report [Curbed]
Record Prices, Avoiding Co-ops in Manhattan [Gothamist]
Manhattan residential real estate market; falling inventory, rising prices and a record number of sales [Firstrung.com]
Manhattan Residential Market Indicates High Sales Volume, Declining Inventory, Rising Prices and Shorter Time on Market – Continued Strong Market Momentum against National Real Estate Trends [Digital50.com]
Manhattan apartments brush off U.S. housing slump [Reuters, India]
Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker [Seeking Alpha]
Real Estate Market Still Hot in NYC [WNYC]
Manhattan apartments brush off U.S. housing slump [Valuation Review]
Manhattan market still on the rise [Inman News]
Manhattan co-op prices fall as condos flourish [NorthJersey.com]

Radio and TV clips

[July 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV – On The Economy (Part I)
[July 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV – On The Economy (Part II)
[July 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio

Have a great 4th of July!


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[Media Chain-Links => Post March Madness] 1Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview

April 3, 2007 | 7:17 am | | Public |

My firm released the 1Q 2007 Manhattan Market Overview that we author for Prudential Douglas Elliman today. Its pretty much consumed most of my time for the past week and I am glad it is finally out. The “pretty” version should be online by the end of the day.

Note: I am equally thrilled that I won my March Madness pool last night with a Florida win.

The numbers were released and my summary of their interpretation were provided to the media for the coverage today. The actual data and charts will be available later today as well.

A year ago, I began posting the links to the coverage of each report as they are released to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting process.

This list of articles is presented basically when I found them. I also include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story – I place those near the bottom because of the repetition. I’ll keep adding links through the end of the week.

The Link List

Market Strong for Apartments in Manhattan [NYT] April 3, 2007
Big Apple’s Housing Market Shines [TheStreet.com] April 3, 2007
Manhattan home prices on the rise – again [CNN/Money] April 3, 2007
CITY HIGH RI$E [New York Post] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Apartment Prices Increase at Slower Pace [Bloomberg] April 3, 2007
Wall St dollars help NY buck U.S. housing decline [Reuters] April 3, 2007
Buoyant Manhattan Market Bucks National Housing Trend [New York Sun] April 3, 2007
No bubble in NYC apartment prices [New York Daily News] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Market Report: Sales Soar, Prices Nudge Up [Curbed] April 3, 2007
Residential market in bloom [The Real Deal] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Apartments Keep Selling [Gothamist] April 3, 2007
Manhattan home prices still rising [MSN Money] April 3, 2007
Wall St dollars help NY buck housing decline [Yahoo! News] April 3, 2007
Manhattan’s real estate market stays hot [amNew York] April 3, 2007
Big Apple Bucking National Housing Market Trends [All Headline News] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market Surges in 2007 [Commercial Property News] April 3, 2007
Quarterly Figures Defy Dour Predictions [New York Observer] April 4, 2007

Radio and TV clips

Manhattan Residential Market [Bloomberg TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market Surges in 2007 [Dow Jones TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [Bloomberg TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [WABC-TV] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [WNYW-TV Fox 5] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [NY 1] April 3, 2007
Manhattan Residential Market [NY 1] April 3, 2007

[Bloomberg Radio] April 4, 2007
[Bloomberg Radio] April 3, 2007


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1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report Is Available For Download

March 20, 2007 | 7:17 am | | Reports |

The PDF version of the 1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994. The report is the aggregate of the four previous quarterly reports.

More than 85,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,400 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas was analyzed with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix with prior year and prior decade comparisons.

I lovingly have dubbed this report “The Phone Book” for the pages and pages of “numbers” it contains. Even though the quarterly gets more coverage in the media, this report has about the same number of annual downloads as the four quarterly reports, combined.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (1989 to 2006) and view a series of market charts.

An excerpt

… All Manhattan price indicators set records this year over the records set in the prior year. The average sales price this year was a record $1,295,445, up 6.1% from the prior year record average sales price of $1,221,265. Although the price indicators set records over the past two years, the pace of price growth has slowed considerably. The 6.1% increase in average sales price was well below the 21.6% appreciation rate seen in the prior year as well as the 18.1% appreciation rate that occurred in the year before that. The lowest annual appreciation rate of the past decade occurred in 2002 where the effects of 9/11 brought the appreciation rate down to 2.1% from 9.5% and 37.2% in the prior two years respectively.

At the end of 2006, there were 5,934 units listed for sale, down 0.5% from the prior year total of 5,964 units. The first half of the year, however was characterized by sharply increasing inventory levels, peaking in the second quarter at 7,640 units. Inventory leveled off in the third quarter and dropped back to levels seen at the end of 2005.

For the second straight year the days on market and listing indicators expanded. The increases this year as compared to the prior year were larger, returning to levels that existed before the housing boom began in the early part of this decade….

Download report: 1997-2006 Manhattan Market Report [pdf]


4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

January 29, 2007 | 12:01 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994. I neglected to post this on Matrix sooner.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 4Q 2006) and view a series of quarterly market charts, many related to the current market report.

_An excerpt_

…Buyers begin to stir as sellers price prop-erties closer to market levels For the past year and a half, the Manhattan market had been characterized by a surplus of listing inventory, with a large portion of it comprised of overpriced resale properties. An abundance of new development inventory has been the focal point of the excess inventory problem. A rift between buyers and sellers emerged as buyers became more demanding about price discounts, resulting in a lower level of sales activity and expanded days on market. Many would-be purchasers moved into the rental market, not because they could not afford to purchase but because there was concern over the near term outlook of the real estate market. However, listing inventory stabilized in the third quarter and dropped sharply in the current quarter as the expiration of over priced resale listings overtook the rise in new development inventory. Record Wall Street bonuses have provided more disposable income and helped keep unemployment levels low. This has helped fuel demand for housing, the effect compounded by four consecutive years of gains because bonus recipients may or may not purchase in the same year their bonus was awarded. Election changes in the federal government last November, more realistic pricing by sellers, a drop in inventory levels as overpriced listings expired, low local unemployment, solid fiscal condition of city government, weakening US dollar, stabilizing mortgage rates and lack of a price correction in six quarters in the post housing boom era have all helped influence buyers to reconsider their position and begin to enter the purchase market again…..

Download report: 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]

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[In The Media] The Real Deal Clip for 1-8-07

January 11, 2007 | 8:28 am | | TV, Videos |

The Real Deal Magazine has pursued with relentless energy the videocasting medium. As much as I enjoy this effort, I also still love the podcast format because I get to ramble (If you know me, you know I am unable to provide short answers to anything). This week, I was recovering the from the flu and look a little pale (podcasts hide this stuff). Starting next quarter, I will be doing a podcast presentation on the market that will be more freeform in addition to this videocast.

Becaused Curbed teased me with the link last quarter: “Jonathan Miller has a lot of books” on the inaugural broadcast, The Real Deal promised no book backgrounds this time. Of course, someone forgot to tell production, but I seem to have less than before so I must be reading less these days.

To watch the broadcast which starts with my interview which runs 5:30.


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[Media Chain-Links Without The Snow] 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview

January 3, 2007 | 8:51 am | | Public |

The 4Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, authors for Prudential Douglas Elliman, was released for publication today. In order to include the entire quarter for the study, I spent the good part of the New Years weekend while away on vacation in a Starbucks crunching and analyzing while drinking too many vanilla skim lattes. Thats why the pretty version of the report will be available in a few days rather at the point of release to the media.

The raw numbers were released and my summary of their interpretation were provided to the media for the coverage today. The actual data and charts will be available soon online. I tend focus only on the data collection, verification and analysis until the media publishes the findings.

Each quarter I place links to articles about our market report for a few days after publication for perspective (plus I am obessed with making lists) to make it easy to compare how each media outlet (big and small media, blogs) presents the exact same set of data.

This article list is presented in no particular order, basically when I found them. I also include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story – I place those near the bottom because of the repetition. I’ll keep adding links through the end of the week.


Home Prices Fall Just a Bit; Brokers See ‘Soft Landing’ [NYT]
Manhattan real estate cools off [CNN/Money]
Real estate still strong [NY Daily News]
NYC APTS PRICED TO SELL: STUDY [NY Post]
Apartments up at least 5% in Manhattan [Newsday]
Manhattan Apartment Prices Rise 3.2%, Sidestep U.S. Declines [Bloomberg]
Reports Contradict Predictions of Apartment Market Slump [NY Sun]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [Reuters]
Brokerages Turn in Homework for the Semester [Curbed]
Brokerages: Market is stable [The Real Deal]
A Look Back in 2007! Manhattan Is Still an Islan [NYO-The Lab]
Reports show real estate slowdown [AM New York]
Average Manhattan apt: $1.2M [Metro]
Home is where B’klyn bucks are, reports show [NY Daily News]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Chicago Tribune]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 [Boston Herald]
Real Estate Bubble Slowly Deflating, Not Bursting [Gothamist]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Tuscaloosa News]
Manhattan apartments go for an average $1.14-million (U.S.) [Globe and Mail, Canada]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 despite national dip, analysts say [San Diego Union Tribune]
Market for Manhattan Apts. Strong [Sun-Sentinel]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [WaPo]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [MSN Money]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [KPLC-TV/Lake Charles, LA]
Manhattan apartment downturn short-lived: report [Reuters Canada]
Market for Manhattan apartments remained strong in 2006 despite national dip, analysts say [IHT]
Mean Manhattan apt. price up to $1.1M [ABC]
Healthy Year for Manhattan Real Estate Market [RISMedia]
NYC Apartment Market Prices Up with Inventory Growth Dropping Sharply [Earthtimes]
NYC Apartment Market Prices Up with Inventory Growth Dropping Sharply [Yahoo Business]
Reuters Canada Business Summary [Globe and Mail]
Manhattan real estate prices still rising in Q4 [Inman – Subsc]
Manhattan real estate market remains strong [Courier News (NJ)]

Radio and TV clips

[January 8, 2007] The Real Deal
[January 7, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WABC-TV
[January 3, 2007] WNBC-TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg TV

[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio
[January 3, 2007] Bloomberg Radio


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[Haute Living Magazine] Buy The Numbers Column: December 2006

December 18, 2006 | 12:01 am | Articles |

Haute Living, a magazine that covers the luxury lifestyle, has gotten a lot of attention in New York over the past year. Publisher Seth Semilof began contacting me about a year ago, asking me to write a column. He wanted an analytical perspective of the the luxury real estate market.

[Although I am not part of the Jet Set, have any real estate dynasty or blue blood in my heritage, nor do I smoke fine cigars (allergic), play polo, have three homes in different states, nor do I grasp where the small fork is supposed to go in the place setting, I do enjoy dissecting values and explore relationships of amenities in the residential property market. In this issue, I began using a more Trump-esqe photo.]

I write a column on the luxury market appearing in the New York edition called Buy The Numbers.

Here’s my second Buy The Numbers column which is titled: Penthouse Living Provides A Clear View.

I’ll post the link to the digital version of the magazine shortly.


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Business 360 Forecast: Manhattan’s Mug Is Half Full

November 29, 2006 | 12:01 am | |

As Jason Kidd, upon being drafted to the Dallas Mavericks pro basketball team declared:

We’re going to turn this team around
360 degrees.

About 5 years ago, John Marchant of Business360 approached me to provide information for his forecast of the Manhattan real estate market. The forecast would use information generated during the preparation of our quarterly market reports. He impressed me with his insight and I was even more impressed with his approach to the research as well as his candor.

Business360 is a high-quality information and business services company, underpinned by a unique and flexible resourcing model and large global team of specialists and generalists. This particular report and related forecasts have been covered in The New York Times, Crain’s, New York Observer and The Financial Times.

Here’s their track record:

But their forecast remains a contrarian viewpoint:

Prices are falling in other U.S. markets and the situation in Manhattan is increasingly unclear. Confidence and psychology are important factors in the market and today Manhattan’s market looks to be at a balance point. Supply is up strongly and buyers are holding back, making for a stalemate. Prices have run up very strongly over the last seven years or so, greatly outstripping personal income gains, and many believe prices should pull back to bring them in line. However, a review of prices over a 25-year period, or against the last peak in 1987, suggests that prices have room to rise.

The report is available to download for a modest fee ($99).

However, since John is a better negotiator than I am, I get nothing financial out of the deal, other than a copy of the report and a free round when we go out to bend an elbow.


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3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

October 24, 2006 | 12:01 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994. The delay in getting this pretty version ready was my fault this quarter…sorry.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 3Q 2006) and view a series of market charts, many related to the current market report.

_An excerpt_

…Prices are off in the current quarter from record levels set in the prior quarter but remain above levels seen in the prior year quarter. Overall inventory has stabilized for the first time since the end of 2004 but that appears to be due more to the offsetting decline in co-op re-sale inventory and increase in condo inventory where more than 60% of the growth is attributable to new development. Fixed and adjustable rate mortgage rates fell over the quarter but that did not stimulate additional demand. There seems to be plenty of buyers out there as lenders report rising numbers of pre-qualified buyers. Other factors such as stable local economic conditions, including an optimistic Wall Street bonus outlook, reasonable employment and payroll levels, fiscal austerity by local government and currency exchange rates encouraging foreign investment added to the stability of the market. Nevertheless, these conditions have not convinced would-be buyers to make a purchase decision as evidenced by weaker sales and increased rental activity….

Download report: 3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]

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[Haute Living Magazine] Buy The Numbers Column: October 2006

October 23, 2006 | 12:01 am | Articles |

Haute Living, a magazine that covers the luxury lifestyle, has gotten a lot of attention in New York over the past year. When originally launched, it covered the Florida market but eventually expanded to New York because the connection between New York and Florida made sense. The magazine is currently evolving into an alternating New York and Florida monthly edition.

Publisher Seth Semilof began contacting me about a year ago, asking me to write a column. He wanted an analytical perspective of the the luxury real estate market. Although I am not part of the Jet Set, have any real estate dynasty or blue blood in my heritage, nor do I smoke fine cigars (allergic), play polo, have three homes in different states, nor do I grasp where the small fork is supposed to go in the place setting, I do enjoy dissecting values in the residential property market.

[Close call: a distant relative of mine did invent instant mashed potatoes, but no fortune found its way to me.]

Seth’s determination impressed me, so I opted to write a column on the luxury market. Its going to appear every other month in the New York edition and I call it Buy The Numbers.

Here’s my first attempt at the Buy The Numbers column, (using a big fork on the mashed potatoes) called: Luxury Defined by a Bundle of Amenities.

Read the October Buy The Numbers column [Miller Samuel]

Read October issue of Haute Living New York [Digital Version]


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