Matrix Blog

New York City

Live At The 92Y: Making Sense of Manhattan Real Estate

October 6, 2006 | 12:01 am | | Public |

For each of the last two years, Paul Purcell and Kathy Braddock of Braddock and Purcell have organized a panel discussion on the state of the Manhattan residential market at the 92nd Street Y in Manhattan.

Pamela Liebman, CEO of the Corcoran Group, Alan Rogers, former Chairmer Chairman of Douglas Elliman and moi, moderated by Paul. We have lively discussions with very good chemistry. I always learn something from them.

This year the event was again slated for all three of us, but Alan, with a last minute conflict, is being replaced by a mystery guest. It should be fun. Hope to see you there.

The event will be held on Thursday, Oct 12, 2006 at 8:00pm. Click here for tickets.

BTW, the 92nd St Y blog is a pretty cool resource and well-written.


[Media Chain-Links, Fenced In] 3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview

October 4, 2006 | 11:13 am | | Public |

The 3Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, authors for Prudential Douglas Elliman, was released for publication today. The raw numbers were released and a summary of their interpretation were provided to the media. The pretty report will be available for download later this week or early next week. I wait until the end of the quarter before I start working on it so there is not enough time to get it together before publication of the results. This quarter ended last Saturday so it made for a long weekend.

The actual data and charts will be available soon. The actual report pdf will be available next week.

For perspective, every quarter I place links to articles about the report for a few days after publication to make it easy to compare how each media outlet (big and small media, blogs) presents the exact same set of data.

This article list is presented in no particular order, basically when I found them. I include some duplicate news feeds because I like to see what regions are interested in the story.

Manhattan real estate finally starts to cool [CNN/Money]
Buying in Manhattan? Apartment Prices Steady [New York Times]
Manhattan apartment prices slip in latest quarter [New York Daily News]
Manhattan apartments selling slower [Newsday]
Manhattan apartment market seen in soft landing [Reuters]
Manhattan Co-Op Apartment Prices Dip 16% as Buyers Favor Condos [Bloomberg (no link yet)]
Manhattan Housing Stays Stable []
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Reuters]
Jonathan Miller On Summer ’06: New York Realty Isn’t So Bad [NYO The Real Estate]
Prices down, sales up in Manhattan housing market; co-op prices slump [The Real Deal]
As Dow Hits Record High, Homes Falter [NY Sun]
Manhattan real estate market slows down [Inman]
DownMarket Reports: Choose Your Own Adventure! [Curbed]
Sector Snap: Manhattan Apartment REITs [AP] Highlights from the Prudential Douglas Elliman Third Quarter Overview [True Gotham]
Manhattan residential real estate market cools [Valuation Review]

Here are a handful of tv spots as well.


[Bloomberg TV]




USA Today Manhattan Segment

October 3, 2006 | 7:03 am | Public |

Noelle Knox of USA Today does her series segment this week on the Manhattan housing market this week based on my second quarter stats and some mid 3rd quarter anecdotes. She also mentions a 10.1% one month drop in the number of sales and how quiet the market is, except on the high end. Sales activity is not at the pace we have grown accustomed to, etc.

My firm is publishing our 3rd quarter stats tomorrow. It promises to be interesting.

Bismark, North Dakota is next on her list. …Ok, need to remind myself again… Pierre is the capital of South Dakota. Got it!

Carnival Of Real Estate [Week of August 7, 2006]

August 7, 2006 | 11:15 am | Public |

[Matrix is hosting the Carnival of Real Estate the week of September 25, 2006. Its a great way to read some great posts on real estate topics of the day and not get sick on cotton candy.]

What is a carnival?

Here’s a great carnival Q & A. Its basically a a bunch of blogs that take turns displaying the favorite posts of the group each week. Carnivals can vary by topics and of course and the most relevant to Matrix readers is the Carnival of Real Estate.

This week’s host: Property Grunt is presenting what he feels are the best posts submitted to him by carnival members and applies his unique insight to the expanding content.

Next week’s host: Brownstoner who takes his obsession with Brooklyn Brownstones to the carnival.

Carnival of Real Estate

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2Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

July 31, 2006 | 12:02 am | | Public |

The PDF version of the 2Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [Miller Samuel] that I write for Prudential Douglas Elliman [PDE] is available for download. I have been writing these market reports for them since 1994.

In addition, you can see the [methodology]) that went into the report including the neighborhood boundaries and the type of content we have available.

You can also build your own custom data tables using the aggregate report data (from 1Q 89 through 2Q 2006).

_An excerpt_

…The phenomenon of rising prices and declining sales is a classic sign of a market in transition. The market has entered a period where the sellers no longer have a clear advantage in the typical sales transaction. Buyers were expecting a deep discount on all transactions while sellers remained fairly firm in their pricing. As a result, the number of sales dropped as the buyers who were resistant to rising prices simply chose not to participate, while those who stayed in the market paid record prices on average. The modest uptick in mortgage rates since the beginning of the year tempered demand as both existing and new development inventory was rising. While inventory levels are the highest they have been in ten years, the selection for buyers has not improved as much as the inventory numbers would suggest as sellers have not yet responded to the weaker demand. There is still a substantial portion of listings that are priced as if the market was seeing double-digit annual appreciation that occurred over the past several years. As a result, it is taking longer to sell an apartment and there is generally more negotiability…

Download report: 2Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview [pdf]

The Real Deal Podcast: Jonathan Miller On Manhattan 2Q 2006

July 11, 2006 | 12:01 am | |

[The Real Deal has innovated the delivery of information about the New York real estate market in its magazine and online format to its readership. This podcast is part of a series on the state of the New York housing market. -ed]

Jonathan Miller

Prices are at record highs, but sales keep dropping – what’s going on in the Manhattan housing market? Jonathan Miller explains the second-quarter numbers. [TRD]

The podcast format allows me to summarize the results of the just completed 2nd Quarter 2006 Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview and provide some insights into the future of the market (while looking admittedly Trump-esq) in 7:37 minutes.

For hard stats, you can view those right now on my web site. The pretty report will be posted on my web site later this week.

[In The Media] On The Economy: Bloomberg TV clip for 7-6-06

July 7, 2006 | 5:20 am | | Public |

Here is a clip of my appearance on the Bloomberg Television show On The Economy. I spoke about the recent release of my company’s 2Q 2006 Manhattan market study. [about 5 minutes]

The quarterly market report pretty much absorbs two weeks of my time before release. It will be good to get back to more postings on Matrix!

Of course, the folks at Sellsius had a better image of me.


[Media Chain-links] 2Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview

July 6, 2006 | 6:07 am | | Public |

The 2Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, prepares for Prudential Douglas Elliman, was released today. Each quarter I place links throughout the day of publication to make it easy to compare how each media outlet (big and small media, blogs) presents the exact same set of data.

Even more interesting to me is how the other real estate brokerage companies who write alternative reports, frame their comments in the articles. While I have not had access to their specific results, I understand that some of the statistics such as average sales price, differed from the results in our report. Some of the reporters that cover the real estate market in New York have expressed frustration at trying to discern what actually happened this quarter.

To view the actual data and charts (going live by noon Friday 7-7-07). The actual report pdf will be available next week.

This list is in no particular order and were generally presented when I found them. I included some of the duplicate news feeds because I found it interesting who picked up the story. I will keep adding to the list through the remainder of the week.

Little Shift in Prices of Manhattan Apartments [NYT]
Manhattan Has Most Apartments for Sale Since 1994, Report Says [Bloomberg]
Mixed messages on Manhattan home prices [CNN/Money]
Manhattan apt. price hits record [NY Daily News]
Disparities in Manhattan apartment prices show a market that is neither booming nor busting [NY Newsday]
Condo Expectations May Be Rethought As Prices Plunge [NY Sun]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Reuters]
Manhattan real estate inventory grows [Inman]
NYC Housing Prices Keep Climbing []
Manhattan condos again outsell co-ops [The Real Deal]
Sales drop, prices rise in Manhattan market [The Real Deal]
2nd Quarter 2006: “The Boom is Done” [The Real Estate]
Manhattan housing prices up [USAToday (Miller Samuel)]
Brokerages Submit Reports, Hope to Avoid Summer School [Curbed]
Manhattan Apartment Price Hits Record Highs [All Headline News]
Investing: Rising rates depress N.Y. apartment sales [IHT]

_Duplicate News Feeds_
Sales mellow in Manhattan [Houston Chronicle]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Yahoo News]
Manhattan has most apartments for sale since 1994 [The Journal News (Westchester, NY)]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Washington Post]
Sales of Manhattan apartments falling [Sun-Sentinel]
Apartments On The Market In Manhattan Hit 12-Year High [Tampa Tribune]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [MSN Money]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [7KPLC (Lake Charles, Louisiana)]
Manhattan apartment prices leap despite sales drop [Wave3 (Louisville, Kentucky)]

Here are a handful of radio and tv spots as well – more to come.

[Bloomberg TV]


Morning Call [Bloomberg TV]

Bloomberg Morning Markets [Bloomberg TV]

Squawk Box [CNBC]

News at Ten [WB11]

News at 5 [Fox 5]

WSJ Report [WCBS Radio]
NPR poor fidelity – better clip coming [WNYC]

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Manhattan Aggregate Real Estate Data: Available To The Nice And Nasty

June 27, 2006 | 10:57 am |

The data tables on our web site are now (finally) current. You can build custom tables of all the aggregate market data we have been including in our market report series going back to 1989.

Build your custom data tables here:

_Sample Output_

_Background on this that is pretty trivial_
Since 1997 when we launched the site, I had been diligent about keeping the data current until Q3 05 when, I had a grandiose idea to make some internal changes to my web site and alter the way my aggregate data was to be presented. Of course, I had 17 other seemingly grandiose ideas and this one eventually took a back burner position. During this time, I failed to have the aggregate data section of my web site updated after Q3 05 – I was simply overloaded.

I kept thinking… next week …but next week never came.

Over the past 3 months, I was averaging about 2 requests per day from pension funds, REITS, commercial banks, hedge funds, bond traders, government agencies, investors as well as individuals from around the country asking for the specific data for Q4 05 and Q1 06 to be placed in the data section of our site. I had failed to appreciate how much people were depending on the information.

The requests ranged from the very nice to the downright nasty/entitled. The latter all the more surprising since this is a free service, for now anyway [wink]. Its amazing how much more information you can get when you are simply polite and respectful.

I’ll keep it current.

The second quarter is nearly upon us.

Hard Sell Brokerage, Soft Sell Blogging

June 26, 2006 | 12:01 am | |

The crew at Sellsius sent me a link to a story they posted NYC Seller Offers 10% Real Estate Commission. It wasn’t just a post about a 10% listing as a novel marketing technique to differentiate the property. They called and interviewed the listing broker to get more insight, which only helped enhance the post. Good stuff.

They sent me an email directly – not part of a bulk email, suggesting that I post an article about the 10% commission and link to it. While I was appreciative of the gesture, I am not crazy about posts about posts unless they are really funny, quirky or part of a bigger topic in a post I am presenting. But frankly, I got side tracked and never did anything about the post. However, the story was covered by a number of other blogs I like to read so I suspect they were emailed the same way. Sellsius’ soft sell strategy was therefore successful:

Just like the broker in the 10% listing story, Sellsius probably generated more traffic by approaching their marketing a little differently and each blog enhanced the content of the original post. Still, it bothered me.

That being said, it was still a good post about a changing real estate market.

Lighting A Fire Under The Development Process

May 8, 2006 | 12:02 am | |
Source: Curbed

In The Stalwart, one of my daily must-reads, the post When Property Development Is Outlawed, Only Outlaws Will Develop Property [The Stalwart], talks future development in the aftermath of the Greenpoint, Brooklyn fire [Curbed] that destroyed a bunch of property but could have actually killed many if the wind was in a different direction.

I remember seeing a similar slogan on a billboard as a teenager, on a bike trip through Wyoming: The west wasn’t won with a registered gun. When guns are outlawed, only outlaws will have guns.

These warehouses had been abandoned for some time, and surely the red-tape in getting approval from various board was taking years. Not to mention, there’s a claque of preservationists here who want to keep every abandoned building, truckyard, and empty factory as some sort of memorial to the past.

The trade-off here is that the difficulty in development, provides a large up front risk and cost. What does the difficulty in the development process do to housing costs? It makes them much more expensive. No wonder the only thing that can be built in Manhattan without significant government intervention is luxury housing (although incentives still remain).

Friday Link ‘n Log

April 28, 2006 | 12:05 am |

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