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New York City

The Real Deal Podcast: Jonathan Miller On Manhattan 1Q 2006

April 5, 2006 | 11:42 am | | Public |

[The Real Deal has innovated the delivery of information about the New York real estate market in its magazine and online format to its readership. This is part of a series of podcasts on the state of the Manhattan housing market. -ed]

Jonathan Miller

Is the Manhattan housing market cooling or is it still hot? [TRD]

The podcast format allows me to summarize the results of the just completed 1st Quarter 2006 Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan market Overview without rattling off a bunch of statistics – those you can get from my report which will be posted on my web site shortly.



[Media Chain-links] 1Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview

April 4, 2006 | 7:39 am | | Public |

The 1Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, prepares for Prudential Douglas Elliman, was released today. I always think its interesting (actually, its fun) to see how the various media outlets (Big and Small Media, Blogs) respond to the exact same set of data and how the real estate brokerage companies who write alternative reports, frame their comments.

This list is in no particular order and excluded all the redundant articles (ie news feeds). I will keep adding to it through the week after the initial post.

Apartment Prices Up Again After a Slump in Manhattan [NYT]
Housing frenzy slows down[NYDN]
Wall Street bonuses lift Manhattan apartment prices [Reuters]
Reports: Luxury Housing Boom May Be Reaching Its Crest [NY Sun]
First Quarter Reports: Thousand Island [NYO The Real Estate]
Housing market still steady [NY Newsday]
City Apts. Defy U.S. Bubble Trouble [New York Post]
Condo boom boosts Manhattan real estate market [Inman News]
Manhattan housing market shows weakness [CNN/Money]
Manhattan Apartment Sales Cool Off [TheStreet.com]
Manhattan Apartment Prices Climb at Slowest Pace in Three Years [Bloomberg] IMMOBILIARE: SALE, SI SGONFIA OPPURE CROLLA [Wall Street Italia]
Manhattan housing market booms in first quarter [The Real Deal]
State o’ the Market Update: Through Thick and Thin, ‘Essentially Flat’ [Curbed]
Brokers say New York real estate market is cooling [Financial Times]
[Wall Street Bonuses Fuel Manhattan Real Estate Surge [DJ]](no link)
A game of telephone [Property Grunt]
Manhattan Market Up, Psychology Down in Q1 [Brownstoner]
Real Estate Rashomon [Walk-Through]

Here are a handful of radio and tv clips as well.


[Bloomberg TV]


[WNBC-TV]


[WPIX WB11]


[WABC-TV]

[WCBS Radio]


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Reconfiguring New York City: A Series Of Articles In The Journal The Stamford Review

February 22, 2006 | 10:25 pm | | Public |

The Stamford Review, Spring/Summer 2006 is the third issue and was just released. It can be downloaded for free on their web site after a simple registration or hard copies can be purchased for a nominal fee. The intention of the publication was to bring together a diverse group of writers who are passionate about their topics to write about issues that affect New York City real estate, land use, architecture, and urban affairs.

See the author list below.

Shameless plug: I wrote two articles for this publication The Gentrification of Manhattan and Manhattan’s Housing Market and the Media

I hope you enjoy them.

Larry Sicular is the editor and has been a professional colleague of mine for 20 years. The journal, which is a labor of love for him, takes a monumental effort to coordinate, edit and publish and I truly appreciated the opportunity to be in it.

In the introduction of the publication, Larry describes the current issue as being:

…about the reconfiguration of New York City, a physical transformation that has been fueled by a mixture of population growth, increased affluence, and an unusually strong housing market. What is happening here is mirrored to varying degrees in successful cities elsewhere in this nation and across the globe.

Here, nine experts praise and critique city government’s efforts to guide this transformation, to meet and balance growing demands for market housing, affordable housing, open space, industrial space, and historic preservation. Even as the housing market softens, these policies will have long-term effects and will continue to be debated.

In recent years it has been easy to forget Jonathan Miller’s reminder that twenty years ago Manhattan’s housing market relied on government tax policy to stimulate demand. Julia Vitullo-Martin applauds the results of public and institutional investment in the Bronx, but she notes that destructive government policies helped depress the borough in the first place.

Much of our attention is drawn to the city’s extensive rezoning of former industrial areas on the Brooklyn waterfront and the west side of Manhattan. Frank Braconi questions whether these initiatives are sufficient to meet the needs of our growing population, while Kimberly Miller and Mark Alexander address what will be required to make the rezonings a success. Peter Beck shows us that limited public resources, directed to these areas for affordable housing, could perhaps be more effectively spent, while Lisa Kersavage shows us how rezoning need not have cost us valuable historic resources. Pamela Hannigan praises the city policy that is creating new industrial business zones in order to preserve and stimulate the valuable manufacturing resources that remain.

And then there is Governors Island. Is there a greater possibility for adding a jewel in our crown than the history and open spaces that this island offers and represents? Our third issue is dedicated to the possibilities of Governors Island.



Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Listing Inventory Gets In The Red Zone

February 22, 2006 | 1:16 pm | | Charts |

Here is my Wednesday post for Curbed, the mother and father of all real estate web logs.

Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Listing Inventory Gets In The Red Zone

An archive of previous posts can be found here.

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Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Stands Tall

February 16, 2006 | 12:01 am | | Charts |

curbed Here is my Wednesday post for Curbed, the mother of all real estate web logs.

Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Stands Tall

An archive of previous posts can be found here.

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Creative Brain Drain Weakens Long Term Urban Revitalization

December 21, 2005 | 12:01 am | |

In Daniel Gross wrote a great post in Slate called: Are Journalists Underpaid? : Pity the sad, broke New York Times reporter [Slate]. Let me answer that quickly: “Duhhh!!” They are writing stories about some of the most expensive real estate in the world, not forgetting the difficulty and scrutiny their work entails.

The recent real estate article by Jennifer Steinhauer called New York, Once a Lure, Is Slowly Losing the Creative Set [NYT] addresses this point quite clearly.

In a related pattern, the eventual loss of early artisans who pioneered downtown urban locations as residential usually get priced out by hipsters only to start the cycle again somewhere else. This has been occurring with more frequency as urban areas entice residents from outlying suburban areas into their revitalized downtown markets.

The New York Times article, while a fascinating piece, doesn’t quantify the loss, but I suspect it is significant. I haven’t found great data on this yet, so perhaps its too early in the cycle to measure. This phenomenon happened in New York long ago with loft neighborhoods such as Soho, Tribeca, more recently Chelsea and moved on to parts of Brooklyn and now So Bro (South Bronx.)

Enticing the creative to remain is one of the most important issues to sustain urban revitalization efforts in the long term.


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Front Yard Politics: Grass Losing Ground To Pavement

November 30, 2005 | 12:01 am | |
Source: NYT

In today’s article For Some, Grass Is Greener Where There Isn’t Any [NYT] the author covers the odd phenomenon of paving over front yards. This has taken on a political undertone in Kickin’ Asphalt: Pols Attack Front Yard Driveways [Queens Ledger]

“While there are no official city figures on pave-overs, it is clear that the fight is still being waged in the other boroughs and in some suburbs, where signs of creeping urbanism threaten the leafy suburban aesthetic…New York City has no rules prohibiting property owners from paving over their lawns, but Tony Avella, a city councilman from Queens, hopes to change that…Paving over has become so commonplace that it is spurring differences between neighbors and debates within households about whether to dispense with the lawn.”

Source: NYT

Apparently the same issue is a recent major concern in Dallas where a 50% coverage limit is being proposed: Council reviews ordinance to limit pavement in yards [Dallas News]

Some quick research yielded lots of pavement ordinances, but I lost interest after 2:

Garden Grove, CA

Garland Grove TX



Urban Living On Steroids: 10,000 Sq Ft Boxes on Stilts for $29M to $50M

September 12, 2005 | 10:50 pm |

Its a (Rubik) Cubist’s ultimate fantasy. A project by architect Santiago Calatrava [NY Post], is planned on the East River, South of the Brooklyn Bridge that has received a lot of attention lately for both (high) price and (unusual) design.

Triplemint has a photo spread and Curbed has given the project a lot of attention.

As the housing market continues to rise and the acceptance of high end housing projects remains solid, it is expected that we will see more and more unusual development projects that will scream out for attention.


The Real Deal – The Real Deal Weekly Interview

August 1, 2005 | 10:09 pm | | Podcasts |

The Real Deal – The Real Deal Weekly Interview

I suggested to Amir Korangy of the Real Deal that he begin Podcasting since his publication would be a perfect candidate for it. The Real Deal has access to many interesting people and their content is always changing.

Not only did he look into this technology right away, but he asked me to be the guninea pig…errr…the first interviewee. 😉

From The Real Deal’s Web Site…

Jonathan Miller at The Real Deal Magazine’s first Podcast on July 15, 2005

In The Real Deal’s inaugural interview in its new weekly audiocast series, we sat down with appraiser Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers and Consultants. Miller’s reports on the Manhattan apartment market are the most widely cited in the industry, and he has been featured in The New York Times, the New York Post and countless other publications including The Real Deal.

With reports showing apartment prices hitting new peaks each quarter but often differing significantly in their findings we asked Miller how he collects his data, and his thoughts on the existence of a real estate bubble. To listen to the entire interview, click one of the links below.

MP3 Version

Podcast (RSS) Version

excerpt…

THE REAL DEAL: Is there a housing bubble in New York?

MILLER: It’s interesting about the whole bubble psychology the boom and bust orientation in the real estate discussions that have been going on for the last three or four months. Especially because Manhattan is closely tied with the financial markets.

A lot of us remember what happened in ’87 with the stock market crash and subsequent real estate correction that we saw from about the end of ’89 to early ’95. So it is something that is fresh in everybody’s minds, and everybody is trying to relate that to the current experience that we are having now.

When I look at what happened then versus now, it’s apples and oranges, a very different experience. Back then we had a tax incentive-based supply-creation syndrome I made that up, but the idea is that housing came on in large quantities in the mid ’80s because of tax incentives. The 421a abatements gave the incentives to developers to throw foundations in the ground without even plans for what they were going to build just to get the tax credits.

Then all of a sudden in ’86 we had the change in the federal tax laws that eliminated the whole incentive for investors to buy individual units that created a lot of supply. And then we had the co-op conversion frenzy, in which seemingly every rental building that could have been converted was converted. I think the conversion pace today not including 2005, but up through the end of 2004 is something like 10 percent of what it was back then, but that’s largely inclusive of, say, lofts being gut renovated to condo as opposed to existing rental buildings.

As far as today, the situation is we have record low mortgage rates, which are really fueling a lot of the demand and we have an improving but very tepid economy. And we now have supply that is gaining momentum. Your magazine did a great study on the condo inventory that is coming online [in July 2005 issue].

TRD: Thank you.

MILLER: And it’s gaining speed. But it’s still about 3,000 units, give or take, and we have a condo universe of somewhere in the neighborhood of 65,000 to 85,000, depending on who you talk to. So it’s still relatively small. In prior years we were talking about 1,500 units coming online. So the pace is increasing but it’s another 1,500 units a year.

I think the two variables on whether we are going to go into a bubble real estate environment is going to be supply or mortgage rates. There are a lot of other things to look at, but those are two main things. Mortgage rates have been forecasted to increase since the end of 2003, and, generally speaking, they’ve been falling. So, in the equation of supply and demand, it has become a constant.

TRD: Brooklyn has become such a great place for developers to go to because there are so many available lots.

MILLER: For those new developments to come in and be viable they are getting $700 a foot. In Manhattan now, the threshold seems to be you have to be at least at 1,000, and more likely on the new developments you’re talking $1,500.

TRD: If you saw a new development at $1,000 per square foot, would you jump on that and say, “Hey, that’s a bargain?”

MILLER: I guess it’s personal preference. You have to decide whether you like the neighborhood. I’ve always felt the reason why [a neighborhood is] cheaper than a Soho and Tribeca is because it’s not proven as yet for that price structure. So you are going to see more price volatility if you have some sort of market downturn meaning that there is a lot of upside and there’s potential downside.

However, the thing about housing which is very different than stocks, is that, for example, the FDIC defines a housing boom as three years and 30 percent appreciation, and a bust is five years and 15 percent depreciation.

TRD: And how does that compare to our market now?

MILLER: On the upside, we’re about double what their boom figure is. But it’s sort of that idea that on a down cycle, prices tend to be sticky on the downside, that it’s still an asset that’s useable. Real estate is a cyclical thing.

We’ve just seen a lot of the upside over the last five to seven years.

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