Matrix Blog

Op-Ed

[Matrix Skeptic] Recession To Housing’s 11th Power

February 20, 2007 | 1:18 pm | |

In this series, I’ll focus on stats that look pretty cool, but aren’t necessarily something that answers any questions (Wait a second…isn’t that pretty much the case for all market stats?).

In Floyd Norris’ Blog: Notions on High and Low Finance, he looks at housing starts in a different way in his post Housing and Recessions. I am not sure he subscribes to his theory or its just an interesting pattern.

Housing starts have now fallen for the 11th consecutive month yet a potentional recession goes against conventional wisdom. Here are the other 4 times since 1959 that an 11-fer has happened.

  • November 1973 was the 11th month. A recession began that very month.
  • April 1980 was the 11th month. A recession began in January of that year.
  • November 1981 was the 11th month. A recession began in July of that year.
  • February 1991 was the 11th month. A recession began the previous July.

What about the comments from the Fed that they will hold firm or raise interest rates because the economy is good?

Seems like housing is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator.



[Soapbox Cleaning] Readers Get Worked Up About AMC’s, Wamu Layoffs

July 17, 2006 | 8:29 am |

Soapbox readers provided commentary about last week’s decision to close the in-house residential appraisal department at Wamu signified the end of an era. AMC’s won because when you get right down to it, its all about short-term costs in upper management, not about long-term exposure and risk. Soapbox would like to thank today’s B-Schools for this.

Soapbox readers write:

  • I am saddened by the shift to AMC’s. It is nothing short of catastrophic that these “efficiency’ mills win because of greed and impatience. We will all pay for it in the long run.
  • Optis was there homegrown loan Origination System that they completely blew up. I believe they dumped over $1B into this system that never worked. There appraisal management system is Optis Value, not Optis. This system functions fine and actually enabled WAMU to benefit from enormous increases in processing efficiencies and staff reductions on their operations side. This fact was reiterated by WAMU executive as recently as yesterday. There is nothing wrong with there Appraisal Management System, this was purely a senior management decision to move from an in house Appraisal Department to a VMC model.
  • May its time the appraiser took a stance against the AMC’s. You know full good and well that the fees that have been paid will be cut in half or better. The AMC are acting more like an employer every day. Maybe they should be made to toe the line like an employer and the appraiser gets additional benifits. Looks like the ranch is looking better and better every day now.
  • Yes, as an independent fee appraiser I have seen most potential review assignments go to the same low price fast turn-around incompetent form fillers who write the garbage reports that are up for review. They all must have been gone the week of the 4th, because I picked up a few review assignments, with my standard fee and turn times, and I can not believe the crap some appraisers are trying to get away with now days. All three sales from another county when there are three good comparables within a few blocks of the subject; 20% to 50% price inflation instead of the 5% to 10% that we are all used to seeing; and reports without ANY comments!

We even had someone who felt AMC’s were the only way to order a USPAP compliant appraisal because it eliminates the everyday pressures applied by mortgage brokers. You gotta think the reader’s heart was in the right place.

  • AMC’S are the only entities that contract out for unbiased appraisals – in other words they are the only entities that order USPAP compliant appraisals. Our office has a swinging door for standard mortgage companies that order appraisals because they only order until the first one does not hit value, then they go somewhere else. In my review work, only about half reflects good work, the rest are just trying to keep their clients. I hate AMC’s, but it is the price I pay for being honest.
  • You make an interesting point and I think your heart is in the right place but I disagree with the intentions of AMC’s. AMC’s don’t order appraisals based on making the deal like the mortgage brokers are often accused of. However, the fees are so low, that for the most part, and no offense, but their appraisal panels are the bottom of the barrel. Does the lender get a better understanding of the collateral? No. AMC appraisers quite often rely on all their comps from the broker involved in the sale who has a vested interest in the outcome. In other words, the order AMC process may be not as biased toward the outcome, but the mechanics of the appraisal certainly are and the outcome is the same.


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