The Mortgage Bankers Association’s chief economist, Douglas Duncan said that the trigger for price declines is always the loss of jobs and doesn’t see a slowdown in employment, “not until 2006.” He predicts that 2005 will set records “and only an unexpected roadblock of monumental size will slow its pace”
Well, we may have a potential roadblock, sort of. Oil Prices have often been a trigger for inflation and higher long term rates such as mortgages.
Then why isn’t it happening now?
Well, here’s a thought…after adjusting for inflation, we are still well below inflation-adjusted oil prices that peaked at $94 per share in 1980. Core inflation is still within the Fed’s confort zone but energy prices are rising.
Tags: David Duncan