Here is my Wednesday post for Curbed, the grand-nephew’s cousin, twice-removed of all real estate web logs.

Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Inventory’s Up and It’s Not Our Fault

An archive of previous posts can be found here.


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5 Responses to “Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Inventory’s Up and It’s Not Our Fault”

  1. John Philip Mason says:

    Great chart! I prefer this over percentages, which sometimes seem vague to me. Seeing inventory drop or spike 1,500+ units from one year to another provides real insight to where the market is or has been. Not that you don’t already have enough to do, but it would be interesting to know what the inventory is doing per unit class (studios, one bedrooms, etc.). In the suburbs north of New York City, despite lower sales volume overall, we still see a very tight market for the most affordable housing units.

  2. John K says:

    Hello.

    Jonathan, the Walk-Through had a link to a guy’s analysis of mortgage loan interest rates and average sales price of Manhattan condos & co-ops, with the conclusion that one does not affect the other.

    His chart shows average sales price as having gone DOWN over the past five years, in Manhattan. Is he drunk?

    Have you any opinion on whether or not interest rates drive sales?

    The consultant’s chart:

    Thanks!

    John

  3. Jonathan J. Miller says:

    Hey John K – Thanks – I am placing a post on this on Monday. All the best.

  4. Lucas Finco says:

    Re: John K,

    A clear observation of the graph in question will clear up this confusion. The data only goes to 2003, not to 2005. The Manhattan real estate market was tough for 01-03. It does not include recent numbers, which, as you indicated, have been relatively good.

    I look forward to more input, and enjoy the discussion…

    Lucas

  5. Jonathan J. Miller says:

    Lucas – first of all – the chart shows 2005 as the end point and the text does not refer to 2003 as the end point. Secondly, it is the analysis of 30 years of data so whether or not 2004 and 2005 were in the data set is not the point. Thirdly, 2001 – 2003 WAS driven by the drop in mortgage rates after 9/11. We were slipping into a recession in 2001 and the sharp drop in rates stimulated the number of sales by mid-2002 to record numbers and a sharp price appreciation for specific markets, namely entry-level where bidding wars on entry-level apartments were not uncommon in 2002 and 2003 while the upper end of the market was quiet until 2004.