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[Existing Home Sales] 3 In A Row Is Not A Trend


Source: Tim Iacono-Seeking Alpha [1]

After last week’s NAR June existing home sale release [2] and the always interesting press release [sarcasm] that goes with it.

Resales of U.S. single-family homes and condos rose 3.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million, the highest level since last October, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday. Resales have risen for three straight months. The housing market appears to be healing, said Lawrence Yun, the NAR chief economist. The increase was higher than expected.

I started to write about the fact that we have seen this before. Before I finished writing about it, I came across Tim Iacono’s excellent chart [1](see above) in his Seeking Alpha post where he shows it much better than I could have. It is clear that the 3-peat pattern happened in late-2006 and early-2007.

I’m not trying to be a wet blanket here and I know these are seasonally adjusted but the inference is that we are close and things will improve shortly thereafter …but its still to make such a call. Housing is local (per NAR)… James Hagerty at WSJ drives home the point that housing is local in his “Home Sales, All over the map” [3] piece.

And Andrew Leonard at Salon [4] summarizes the economic reality we face quite succinctly.