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Going Dutch

bubble [1]

In today’s New York Times article [2], Professor Robert Shiller [3] “>voices his concern about a real estate bubble [4]. Professor Schiller is well-known for predicting the last stock market correction and possibly influencing Fed Chairman Greenspan’s use of the phrase irrational exuberance, the name of Professor Shiller’s subsequent book [5].

According to the article, origins of a housing bubble began with the Dutch about 400 years ago. Recently, a Dutch economist, Piet M. A. Eichholtz, a professor of Maastricht University [6], used Mr. Schiller’s method for converting actual sales into an index and found that the housing market saw a series of booms and busts. They found that in the long run, there was no long term trend and that prices match gains in personal income.

Mr. Shiller has a Norwegian housing index and a US Index that shows a similar pattern and is concerned that the recent run-up shows we are in a bubble.

shillerindex [7]
Source: New York Times


To his critics, he says that housing charts generally go back to the 1970’s and stock market charts go back almost a century.