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A Narrative of The Housing Economy

The Housing Market Is Like [Insert Analogy]

Over the past month, mortgage rates have slowly risen as the economy remains stubbornly like a rocket ship. As a baseline, low unemployment and higher wages are like a good foundation for a new house except for rising mortgage rates, which is the opposite of the smaller size trend of new homes to enable buyers to grapple with falling affordability since finding a listing is like finding a needle...

Like The Housing Market, No One Should Put Ketchup On A Hot Dog

Listing inventory is finally beginning to enter the market at scale as newly signed contracts expand. Some truths can't be explained away, and those 30 percenters are simply wrong. Did you miss last Friday's Housing Notes? March 1, 2024: Is The Housing Market OK? But I digress... New York Metro, Florida, and So Cal Area New Signed Contracts Are Up, And So Are New Listings I've been the author of...

Is The Housing Market OK?

The two questions that dominate the housing market industry continue to be either: Q1: When will the Fed cut interest rates? A1: Back Half of 2024? My wild guess is that rate cuts will be in the back half of 2024. Not in March. Not in June. Unemployment is way too low. In reality, you probably shouldn't listen to me. Here's an historical look at how quickly those cuts occur. Q2: When will NAR...

The Housing Market Needs More Cowbell (Lower Rates)

The economy continues to remain strong, with unemployment staying below 4%. While housing sales remain weak, there are recent signs of expanded new signed contract activity, a product of a strong economy and the notion that buyers might be able to refi out lower over the next few years. The housing market has been punished harder than most other sectors with the rapid gain in interest rates over...

Post-Super Bowl Housing Market Taylored For Swifter Conditions

The back half of 2024 continues to look better for housing transaction volume with eventual rate cuts, combined with low unemployment. The Chief's Justin Watson should be nominated as the next Fed chair! Did you miss last Friday's Housing Notes? February 8, 2024 Housing Numbers Are Still More Powerful Than Its Letters Or Symbols But I digress... The San Francisco And Kansas City Housing Markets...

Housing Numbers Are Still More Powerful Than Its Letters Or Symbols

In the late 90s, the size of Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan’s briefcase was tracked to consider the odds of a rate cut or increase. Last December, Fed Chair Powell said they planned to cut rates by 75 basis points sometime in 2024 but wasn’t specific about “when.” I prefer numbers over briefcases because who carries one these days? Here’s a better way to look at it...

‘Date The Rate’ Is Bad For Housing Business

Throughout my career, I've always found the "date the rate, marry the house" phrasing by mortgage professionals to be awkward. I've had enough trouble with "starve a cold, feed a fever." Aside from being trite, the implication is that you've figured out the U.S. financial system, and this is not the time to say that to someone making what is likely the most significant investment of their life...

Like A Rat On An Escalator, Housing Sales Expected To Climb

In the housing markets we cover across the U.S., more contracts are being signed in January than last January. We are publishing our Elliman Reports of newly signed contracts next week as the month closes. Since last fall, the decline in mortgage rates has trickled in more supply and encouraged more sales, yet many homeowners are still locked into a previous low rate. So don't overinterpret the...

It’s A Green Day For Housing

Mortgage rates continue to fall, and the Fed hasn't cut rates yet. Credit conditions are easing, and unemployment remains low. And going on the Manhattan subway is still an inexpensive and fun way to get around the city. Wait for it. This kind of activity is more common than you think (when we're not searching for the "pizza rat.") Did you miss last Friday's Housing Notes? January 12, 2024:...

Falling Mortgage Rates Provide Possible Termination Of Housing Recession

The Fed Pivot that began in December with the statement that there would be 75basis point cuts in 2024 conveyed a sense of optimism to that economic sector after a rough two years of steep ascent in mortgage rates. Mortgage applications have rebounded, and credit has eased rapidly. Of course, it's also hard to believe that the Terminator came out 40 years ago and still holds up for its genre. My...