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[HUD] Housing Market Conditions, Loan Mod Redefault Risk

[click to open map]

Today I received a nice note from an economist at HUD saying they are using the market report series [2] we prepare for Prudential Douglas Elliman in US Department of Housing and Urban Development’s US Housing Market Conditions [3] site, specifically their annual Regional Activity [4] summary. Using-our-market-reports-aside, its a pretty good overview of what happened in each region. Sort of reminds me of a Beige Book [5]-like housing analysis.

Not only that, but they provide access to a slew of data, research papers and reports as well as interactive maps [6] that allow you to drill down to local levels.

This isn’t a sales pitch so check it out. [3]

Here’s a hot button research paper on their site now:

Loan Modifications and Redefault Risk: An Examination of Short-Term Impacts [7]

A primary concern with loan modification efforts is the seemingly high rate of recidivism. Within 6 months, more than one-half of all modified loans were 30 days or more delinquent and more than one-third were 60 days or more delinquent (OCC and OTS, 2008). Do these high rates of redefault imply that loan modifications are failing?

I would say as currently structured – YES.