Daniel Gross has an insightful post at Slate called Declining Declinism: Don’t believe the historians and economists who say America’s best days are behind us.

Aside from Declining Declinism, I would also could consider Recessionary Recess and Falling Fallout. My kids remind me often of the double-negative wonder of “That’s totally non non-heinous” used effectively in Bill & Ted’s Excellent Adventure.

Bill and Ted take this to the extreme and use it to their advantage to really emphasize words. If something is heinous it is bad. If it’s non-heinous that’s one negative and it becomes good. It’s it’s non-non-heinous then the negatives cancel each other out but the emphasis of the word heinous becomes double, so it becomes really bad.

Here’s the gist from Dan:

Economic prognostication is hamstrung by a tendency to extrapolate from recent trends far into the future. It happens at the top of a cycle—the Dow is going to 36,000! Housing prices will never fall!—and it happens when we plunge into a ditch.

Of course that was part of the problem with the way the bad news was delivered by Robert Shiller and Nouriel Roubini a few years ago. For some reason the former hasn’t retained his momentum and the latter is now loved by the media. Perhaps its more about the way they party.

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One Response to “[Non Non-Heinous] Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results”

  1. Orlando says:

    Unfortunately Mr. Miller there is $500 billion in Option ARM’s that will be resetting interest rates and/or reached 125% cap on loan to value ratio very soon. I believe that we will see some severe declines in housing values in next 12 months. This industry is getting the hose….