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July 26, 2019

Fancy Chocolate Can’t Compete With Good Home Central Air

While I personally think chocolate is overrated, Paris is not but I am very glad I am not there at the moment.

I want to extend a quick shoutout to my Columbia real estate grad students, who yesterday learned that development doesn’t always provide the luxury of time to complete their thoughtful analysis (or quizzes).

But I digress…

Q2 Elliman Report Quarterly Gauntlet, Week 4: Long Island, Hamptons & North Fork

Its the final week of Douglas Elliman [1]‘s market report quarterly gauntlet. I have been the author of the expanding series of reports [2] since 1994.

The Elliman Reports:

Elliman Report: Q2-2019 Long Island Sales [3]
Elliman Report: Q2-2019 Hamptons Sales [4]
Elliman Report: Q2-2019 North Fork Sales [5]

Here are some of the key trends identified in each report and some of our favorite charts in each market:


“Despite the sharp rise of listing inventory, prices pressed higher.”



“Sales above the $10 million threshold were in line with the quarterly average for the decade.”

Bloomberg covered [7]the report and the market in an article [7] and on video [8].

On the Bloomberg Hamptons article, it was the 12th most-read story [7] on the 350,000± Terminals worldwide (No screenshot this week). Plus its the only real estate article I’ve ever appeared in where the title used the term “Dither” so yet another bucket list item was checked off.

And let’s not forget about their chart


CNBC covered our research in this article [9] and the following video [10]. Good stuff.

And some of our charts to ponder


“Highest market share of sales below $1 million in two years.”

Q2 Elliman Report Quarterly Gauntlet, Week 4: Aspen/Snowmass Village, Los Angeles, Malibu/Malibu Beach, Venice/Mar Vista Q2 2019

The Elliman Reports:

Elliman Report: Q2-2019 Aspen/Snowmass Village Sales [11]
Elliman Report: Q2-2019 Greater Los Angeles Sales [12]
Elliman Report: Q2-2019 Venice/Mar Vista Sales [13]
Elliman Report: Q2-2019 Malibu/Malibu Beach Sales [14]


Trends “In an emerging trend, the number of sales moved higher from year-ago levels.”


Trends “Listing inventory declined across property types.”


“The market was characterized by fewer sales and more listing inventory.”


– Malibu single-family sales and listing inventory continued to remain below year-ago levels
– Malibu Beach condo price trend indicators continued to surge as the number of sales declined

– Venice single-family price trend indicators and sales moved higher year over year
– Mar Vista condo sales and price trend indicators rose year over year

New York to South Florida Explored

There was an interesting developing story [15] that I’ve been chronicling since the beginning of 2018 with the introduction of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 [16] also known as the “SALT” tax.

The federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed into law in late 2017 brought with it sweeping changes that limited deductions on state and local taxes — with taxpayers particularly hard hit in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, which are among the states with the highest income and property taxes.

According to US Census Bureau data, Florida had the highest number of migrants from other states, with New York contributing the most — 63,722 people during the 12 months ended in July 2018.

[Source: Wikipedia]


To help New Yorkers to make the decision to move to Florida to enjoy lower taxes, this is one way a developer is executing their marketing plan. It’s a site worth exploring [18].


More Bubbletalk

Over at Visual Capitalist, there was a massive infographic on housing bubble risk by country:

[click to expand]

And here is another take from Bloomberg:


Just Because We Obviously Need All These Amenities

My basement is loaded with musty boxes of old cups and plates, furniture, photo albums, and the kids hand me down clothes that the younger siblings decided they wouldn’t be caught wearing. Plus we have two boilers, an oil tank, a sealed tunnel entrance used in the Civil War as part of the Underground Railroad as well as exposed wooden beams from the late 1700s.

The alternative reality is provided by prolific Hamptons developer Joe Farrell [22] in a very soft East End market: “It features a full bowling alley, a rock climbing wall, a halfpipe, a performing arts theater, a spa and a convertible basketball/squash court.”

NAR Releases Their International Real Estate Member Survey

Formally called the Profile of International Transactions in U.S. Residential Real Estate 2019 [23], U.S. residential real estate has no intensive public data on activity because of fair lending rules and concerns about things like redlining. This is a membership survey and surveys can be very inaccurate. Still, it is all we have in this space.

The following are two of the summary pages from the report. I always find this report interesting, especially because international demand has been so important to U.S. residential and commercial real estate since the financial crisis. In fact I’ve used it to create a proxy for international activity in Manhattan [24].


This Week in Aspirational Pricing: The Palm Beach $300 (Million)

The dam burst open in July – there were $300 Million in July closings of residential homes in the tiny housing market of Palm Beach is incredible. Here’s a photo gallery tour of all the sales from Shiny Sheet [25]:

[click on image to see photo gallery]

TD Ameritrade: Jonathan Miller’s Housing Sector Breakdown

In Times Square, a relatively new financial market streaming service was launched a few blocks from my office. I joined Nicole Petallides on her show “The Watch List” which was the same set where I’ve appeared on CNBC Squawkbox within the NASDAQ studio. Apparently, Nicole was the first anchor ever on Fox Business News.

[click on image to play video]

NYC Housing Market Listicles

This Realtor.com article [27] was based on our data analysis to flesh out the highest and lowers YOY change of all neighborhoods. The reason for nearly every extreme change in price within each neighborhood was the entrance or exit in new development closings.


Getting Graphic

Freddiemac’s Len Kiefer [28] is the best real estate visualization expert on the planet.



(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC [30] site.)

A bit overloaded with projects right now so Appraiserville took the week off. Will be back next week.

OFT (One Final Thought)

Why the Tour de France is so brutal [31]: Think about all the exercise you’ve done during the month of July. While you were doing that, these people were riding up and down mountains for typically 5-7 hours nearly every day. Every year I have this race streaming either live or on replay every day for most of the month (with the sound off so I could get some work done.) The countryside scenes are spectacular and so is the race drama once you understand concepts like the peloton, breakaways and the term “suffering.” The sport gets limited love in the U.S., but hey, that’s their loss.

Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes [32]. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.

See you next week.

Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC [33]
Miller Samuel Inc. [34]
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog [35] @jonathanmiller [36]

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