Housing With Fewer Sales But More Paddling
I’d like to think my suburb to city commute is reasonable. The commuter below looks like he has done this before – in other words, it wasn’t a dry run.
I am headed out of town early tomorrow for a little R&R so I wrote this after midnight on Thursday and had to cut my musings a little short (Here’s a shout out to my Columbia University masters students to whom I hard-sold these Housing Notes in our class today.)
Market Report Gauntlet Q2-2018 Week 1: Manhattan Sales
This week, the real estate firm Douglas Elliman published my research of the Manhattan Sales market for Q2-2018 and the report for the Northern Manhattan subset. I’ve been authoring this expanding report series since 1994.
The key issue for me was the continued year over year decline in sales, although total sales were only slightly below the 40 quarter (ten-year average). Sales volume in 2017 was unusually high, overstating the decline a bit. Some people believe that this decline was the increase in mortgage rates, yet the rate rise occurred after sales began to fall. Studios and 1-bedroom apartments (starter market) did see a surge in listing inventory, accounting for a larger portion of the overall rise and they are influenced by mortgage financing. Since cash purchasers accounted for 54% of the market and sales declined uniformly across all price strata, then it is clear that another force was in play. I lay more of the blame on the new federal tax law. Buyers and sellers are trying to recalibrate their understanding of value and there won’t be a lot of tangible impacts felt until checks are written in early 2019 (before April 15th).
Did I tell you that the market report coverage on Bloomberg Terminals (±350K subscribers) was the fourth most read story last Tuesday? Uh, no so here’s the rankings with a chart.
Now for some Manhattan charts…(click to expand)
Some of the Best Visualizations in Real Estate
@lenkiefer is a terrific follow on twitter. He is the Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac and creates some of the best visualizations I’ve ever seen. Click on them to expand to their full glory.
I’m taking a quick three-day vacay with my wife in Nashville starting today so excuse my content brevity. I wonder if I should check out Tristar bank? I hear they falsely claimed there weren’t enough appraisers, let alone pilots…
Appraisers as Big Ole Jet Airliner Pilots
Doesn’t this sound eerily familiar? An industry screams “shortage” and then it is outed for not paying a fair wage. Pilots are blamed yet the skill required doesn’t match the compensation paid. The rules of supply and demand should apply to all industries.
The worsening pilot shortage is impacting regional airlines and how many consumers fly, leading one expert to tell @CBSNews "it should be a national concern." https://t.co/QOHRN74aN8 pic.twitter.com/EZePRk4WF8— CBS Evening News (@CBSEveningNews) July 5, 2018
Brilliant Idea #1
If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:
- They’ll be more able to visualize;
- You’ll be able to paddle to work;
- And I’ll get my pilot’s license.
Brilliant Idea #2
You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.
See you next week.
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- NIMBYism threatens housing growth on the Upper East Side [Real Estate Weekly]
- Living on the Lower East Side, where you can get luxury condos with a side of schmaltz [Brick Underground]
- This Couple Found A Hidden Note From Their Home's Previous Owners While Renovating And It's Too Good [Buzzfeed]
- Tax h(e)aven [The Real Deal Miami]
- No Image, No Active Listing – PERIOD! [WAV Group Consulting]
- Why Goldman Sachs Is Lending to the Middle Class [Bloomberg]
- FHFA needs to curb Fannie and Freddie's insatiable appetites [American Banker]
- City’s Rent Board Approves Increases of 1.5% and 2.5% [NY Times]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- A Spring Market With Few Bright Spots for Sellers [NY Times]
- Manhattan real estate has worst second quarter since financial crisis [CNBC]
- Why American real estate is still a star attraction for Asian investors [Property Guru]
- Railroad Chief’s Equestrian Estate Returns for 40% Off [Wall Street Journal]
- Manhattan market hits the 'reset' button as prices and sales continue to drop [Brick Underground]
- Manhattan’s Sales Market Saw a Lukewarm Second Quarter [Mansion Global]
- As luxury buyers pause, brokers turn to rental apartments [The Real Deal NY]
- Manhattan Real Estate Sales Hit Nearly a Decade Low [NBC New York]
- Manhattan Homebuyers Demand Bargains, Walk Away—Anything But Overpay [Bloomberg]
- Manhattan sales continue to slide in Q2 [The Real Deal NY]
- Manhattan home sales slide again [Crains New York]
- No longer New Yorkers [The Real Deal NY]
- Getting Into Miami’s Latest Hot Club Will Cost $350,000 [Bloomberg]
- How the financial crisis changed the way we think about home [Marketplace]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
Appraisal Related Reads
- What is an appraisal contingency and why is it more important now than ever? [Birmingham Appraisal Blog]
- Reconciliation, Painting a Picture of the Problem & the Solution with Words [Appraisersblogs]
- ENV Format Appraisals May be a Violation of USPAP [Appraisersblogs]
- How Many Times Would You Like to Pay for That Basement? [Cleveland Appraisal Blog]
- Real Estate Agents and Appraisers [Valuation Nation Blog]
- The temptation to overprice in real estate [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
- Claudia Says… [LIA Administrators & Insurance Services]
- UPDATED: Online Home Value Estimates Are NOT Appraisals
- Freddie Mac bringing appraisal-free mortgages to condos
- Appraisal-free home loans save millions for buyers
Extra Curricular Reads
- ‘A way of monetizing poor people’: How private equity firms make money offering loans to cash-strapped Americans [Washington Post]
- Spotify Reportedly Offers Refunds For Excessive Drake Promotion [Stereogum]
- Mini-Golf in a Red Hook Warehouse [NY Times]
- How George Clinton Made Funk a World View [New Yorker]
- Trump Boils Maine Lobstermen [Wall Street Journal]
- Frank Heart, Who Linked Computers Before the Internet, Dies at 89 [NY Times]