- Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants - https://www.millersamuel.com -

June 19, 2020

The Lockdown Has Relegated Housing To Background Noise

Ugh, I miss the sound of baseball so much – my always-on background comfort noise – this time of year:


Yet I won’t wax poetic about this:

And while this was before my time, I prefer the keeping the sanctity of the playing field in all sports:


But I digress…

New Signed Contracts and New Listings in Three New Reports

[8] [8]

I’ve been working on this project for several months, even cramming in some additional time I found just laying around the house [9]. It will be an ongoing monthly effort, to be published in the first week of each month. By tracking “new signed contracts” and “new listing inventory” added to the market, I am attempting to convey the “pulse” of activity by property type, by 8 list price tranches, by county, borough or area, etc.

I hope you find them helpful:

New York [10]: Manhattan, Brooklyn, Long Island, Hamptons, & North Fork

[10]
[cover page – click to open report]

Florida [11]: Palm Beach County, Broward County, Miami-Dade County, Pinellas County, & Hillsborough County

[11]
[cover page – click to open report]

California [12]: Los Angeles County, Orange County, & San Diego County

[12]
[cover page – click to open report]

Manhattan Newly Signed Contracts Fall Sharply With Lockdown

This coming Monday, June 22nd, New York City real estate brokers will be allowed to show properties in person. Until that moment, the market is not transparent and there is no price discovery. Here is what the market activity looks like in Manhattan now (note the pink line in the Bloomberg chart – how cool is that?).

[13]

New in the Real Estate Lexicon: Co-primary Residence

I spoke with Denise Pelligrini of Bloomberg Radio about the potential for change in how we see the second home market. During an economic downturn, the second home market is usually more vulnerable. However, in the aftermath of this crisis, we may see the second home market be recast as an alternative primary home.

[14]
[click on image to play]

[15]

Mortgage Rates Fell To A New Record Low

Well, we are getting closer to zero. Freddie Mac reported that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low of 3.13% [16] so mortgage applications surged by 8% [17] from the prior week.

But keep that 8% surge in context.

[18]

With the chronic shortage of supply, this rate drop is actually going to make housing less affordable as the surge from “shelter in place” continues. I view this pattern as a “short-term gain” for housing but will leave us with “long-term pain.”

[19]

Getting Graphic


Our favorite chart of the week of our own making

Concessions, concessions.

Len Kiefer [20]‘s Chart Handiwork [21]

[22]

Appraiserville

(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC [23] site.)

Scheduled for my first interior inspection in 90+ days for next week

I hope I remember how to do them. Please feel free to remind me.

This will be historic since I will be driving a car to an appraisal inspection for the first time in my 34 year career of 8,000+ assignments. Buses and subways and cabs are not yet safe.

In other words, it took a global pandemic to get me to drive to an appraisal inspection!

OFT (One Final Thought)

Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes [24]. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.

See you next week.

Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC [25]
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc. [26]
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog [27] @jonathanmiller [28]

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Recently Published Elliman Market Reports

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