Don’t Blink, It’s The Spring Housing Market
On occasion, we observe things in the housing market that surprise us, like the concept of rising mortgage rates. It hits you hard, making you reconsider ideas you thought to be steadfast…
And sometimes, when you have been keeping the garbage cans on the side of your house for a decade, you find yourself being fined unless you hide them, you get inspired…
but I digress…
The release of the 2018 Wealth Report
Knight Frank  and Douglas Elliman  released the annual report on the state of luxury  in the context of the assets and experiences high net worth individuals ($50M+) prefer. I attended the launch last week on the day the N’oreaster hit . The panel was moderated by Robert Frank of CNBC.
There are a lot of good reads about this space such as controversial historian Niall Ferguson’s [piece on the issues facing the world and its wealth creators] called Reformation 2.0. and my friend Liam Bailey’s closing piece “The slow death of cheap money.”
Here are a few of my favorite infographics in the report.
First Time Buyers Under Siege
Not “Under Siege ” like a bad Steven Segal movie or bitcoin copycat…
First-time homebuyers continue to face increasing challenges now that the federal government has extracted itself from the homeownership promotion business.
There were 3 great articles on this topic over the week that you need to read:
- New York Times: 2018: A Tough Year for First-Time Buyers 
Tax law changes, low inventory and tight credit may present extra hurdles this year for people buying their first homes.
- Wall Street Journal: The Next Housing Crisis: A Historic Shortage of New Homes 
- Bloomberg: Scarcer, Pricier, Smaller and More Run-Down 
Panic, Fear and Regret (Tim, Ben, Hank)
Marketplace provided a great one-hour discussion  with three of the most well-known individuals of the onset of the financial crisis in audio format. While I have provided many thoughts over the years on how their early inactions lead to them trying to salvage the economic system, it is fascinating to listen to.
In the past, I have made fun of Tim’s blue bathroom  in Westchester County, New York. I’ve mentioned Ben’s win of the South Carolina Spelling Bee  at 11 years old. I also pointed out what felt like a diversion tactic  at the time by Hank.
Still, this is a fascinating discussion.
Marketplace.org’s Panic, Fear and Regret 
New in the Real Estate Lexicon
What is A.L.?
One of the characteristics of the new development space during this recent boom has been the overbuilding at the top of the luxury real estate price spectrum. There has been much more traction over the past few years at the “lower end” of the high end.
A few years ago, I remember moderating a panel at the Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY) and I asked the panelists and the audience what they thought about the term “Affordable Luxury” and they were instantaneously appalled. It’s been interesting to watch the phrase go through a few iterations that all three of the following links sorted near the top of my google search and were presented in 2015. I describe 2014 as “peak luxury” for real estate and by 2015, the luxury real estate market was overbuilt and began working hard to readjust their messaging. Which of the 3 resonates with you?
Upcoming Speaking Events
April 11, 2018 – DESTINATION FLORIDA. I’m moderating this event. Last time it was held there were over 500 attendees and it was standing room only. It was a fun and informative time. Click on the graphic for more information and to RSVP.
Real Estate Blockchain, Not To Be Confused With Cryptocurrency
I became an advisor to Streetwire , a startup that is building a platform for the real estate vertical. From this platform, Streetwire will enable an ecosystem for real estate. As I have learned more about the space, it seems clear to me blockchain is inevitable because of incentives for privacy, accuracy, and speed . In fact, there is a whole world of blockchain in many many verticals rapidly evolving at this very moment while most media coverage of the space has focused on the Bitcoin sugar high .
A seminal moment for me during the housing bubble occurred after the credit/housing bubble corrected when Mortgage Electronic Registration System, Inc.  (MERS ) effectively broke the chain of title . Banks were foreclosing on properties they could not prove they actually owned. MERS always seemed to be a mortgage industry tool to bypass local recording fees and enable the rapid liquidity of mortgages (and in turn, housing) as part of Wall Street’s financial engineering of mortgage products. Regardless, of the outcome, it placed a question in my mind as to what was the rock-solid notion of a chain of title that could never be broken. But it was broken. That was my first reference point to the concept of blockchain when I was introduced to it.
The following John Oliver monologue is NOT Blockchain, but it is entertaining.
To assist in the steep learning curve, I’ve also added a new category of Blockchain-related reads (and admittedly some Bitcoin candy) along with the regular sections at the bottom of each Housing Note.
The Official Appraiserfest 2018 Agenda is Now Available!!!
“Phil Crawford and Mark Skapinetz break down the Appraiserfest 2018 Agenda! This will be the cutting edge event that no appraiser will want to miss! Register today and we will see you in San Antonio on November 1st, 2nd, and 3rd!!!” Here is the core Appraiserfest schedule  that I believe will be subject to additions.
Think of signing up for the event  as a “rush appraisal” – just clear the deck and get it done now. It will help Phil & co. with planning for the event immensely.
Brilliant Idea #1
If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes . And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:
- They’ll be blockchained;
- You’ll be more wealthy;
- And I’ll watch “Under Seige” again.
Brilliant Idea #2
You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.
See you next week.
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- Low Property Prices in London Are Alienating Spring Sellers [Mansion Global] 
- Inside Michael Dell’s Sprawling Property Empire [Wall Street Journal] 
- WeWork’s massive growth has made it the second-biggest office tenant in Manhattan [Recode] 
- 2018 Wealth Report From Douglas Elliman & Knight Frank Residential [Douglas Elliman] 
- Podcast: Panic, Fear and Regret [Marketplace.org] 
- U.S. Starter Homes Are Scarcer, Pricier, Smaller and More Run-Down [Bloomberg] 
- Jerome Powell drops a major hint into the true state of the job market — and it suggests the Fed is making a big mistake [Business Insider] 
- Annoyed residents get back at their HOA in the pettiest way possible [Mashable] 
- Global Cooling Measures to Continue Calming Property Prices [Mansion Global] 
- House Hunting in … Bermuda [New York Times] 
- Welcome to Zucktown. Where Everything Is Just Zucky. [New York Times] 
- Let’s say Elon Musk’s Hyperloop actually happens. Here’s where it could go in NYC [The Real Deal NY] 
- California Housing Problems Are Spilling Across Its Borders [New York Times] 
- EB-5 fraud scheme in Palm Beach lands development team in jail [The Real Deal Miami] 
- The Next Housing Crisis: A Historic Shortage of New Homes [Wall Street Journal] 
- Housing Perspectives (from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies) 
- Past as Prologue: How Rising Rates Affect the Industry [Freddie Mac] 
- The myth of "forcing people out of their cars" [Vox] 
- The most ‘ingenious’ real estate deals in New York City [New York Post] 
- New York Today: The Evolution of the Apartment [New York Times] 
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- 2018: A Tough Year for First-Time Buyers [New York Times] 
- Waldorf-Astoria Is a Thermometer for Luxury Condo Market [Habitat Magazine] 
- These are NYC's most expensive homes — by price per square foot [The Real Deal NY] 
- China-owned Waldorf reduces number of condos [China Daily] 
- PERÚ: Dueños de apartamentos en Manhattan se apresuran a ocuparlos [Entorno Inteligente] 
- Which is a better investment for my building: Adding a children's playroom or more storage space? [Brick Underground] 
- Darien, Greenwich manses march back onto market [Stamford Advocate] 
Appraisal Related Reads
- February Newsletter [DW Slater Company Appraisal Blog] 
- 2018 Cost vs. Value Report [Remodeling] 
- What type of heater is needed for a loan? [Sacramento Real Estate Blog] 
- Does Birmingham Have Aspirational Pricing? [Birmingham Appraisal Blog] 
- Joint Report to Congress: Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act [FFIEC] 
- Does Landscape Add Value to the Property? – [Advantage Appraisals] 
Real Estate Blockchain Reads
- Making sense of bitcoin, cryptocurrency, and blockchain [PW] 
- NYC’s first condo buys using Bitcoin are here [Curbed NY] 
- Buying property with Bitcoin [Curbed] 
- CRE Opinion: The Impact of Blockchain Technology on Real Estate [D Magazine] 
- John Oliver on Cryptocurrencies [The Big Picture] 
- Wyoming Wants to Be a Crypto Hub [Cheddar] 
- Steven Seagal's crypto marked for death by New Jersey [Modern Consensus] 
- Comparing the 25 Most Notable Cryptocurrencies [Visual Capitalist] 
- Meet the Wealthiest People in Crypto 
- Qualia Grabs $33M Series B Led By Menlo Ventures To Simplify The Home Closing Process 
Extra Curricular Reads
- Call for buyers to keep Salvador Dalí's lobster phone in UK 
- Facebook faces a reputational meltdown 
- USS Juneau, final resting place of the Sullivan brothers, found off Solomon Islands 
- Phyllis Diller: The zany housewife-turned-comedian – Timeline 
- Fed up with Facebook? Here's how to protect your data 
- Back to the Future — the Omata Way [Medium] 
- Why Computers Should Be Hidden [The Atlantic] 
- The Ford Part That Secretly Made Chrysler's Turbine Car Run 
- Bees Are Bouncing Back From Colony Collapse Disorder 
- A Filthy History: When New Yorkers Lived Knee-Deep in Trash 
- With deceptive ‘discounts,’ retailers are manipulating us to spend more. Here are the worst offenders.