I plan to take advice from my friend Nathan Pyle when drawing my next floor plan for one of my appraisals. I’ll simply insert a bubble that says “Hi! I’m the kitchen sink!”
But if you are inclined to draw, make sure you are very careful with avocados or you won’t be able to. Prices are booming…
… but so are avocado-related trips to the emergency room.
Got it? Now back to drawing the market.
Elliman Report: Manhattan Brooklyn & Queens Rental Markets
Douglas Elliman published our monthly rental market research on the rental market this week. The April 2017 Elliman Report on Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens is part of our expanding report series I’ve been authoiring since 1994. The market continued to show significant polarization by being soft at the top and strong in the entry-level. One of the easiest ways to illustrate this phenomenon is comparing doorman and non-doorman median rental prices. While there is a lot of overlap in property types, this breakout is literally a 50/50 split.
Here’s my take on it (I am making up for taking band in high school).
although Bloomberg presents a much better version with our data…
This chart made it to the prestigious “chart of the hour” on the Bloomberg Terminals
…and was the 8th most emailed (9th most read) on the Bloomberg terminals world wide.
Here are some of my favorite Manhattan rental charts we created this month.
Streeteasy Premier Agent is not leveling the playing field
The Real Deal magazine has been going after the new “Premier Agent” product that caused an uproar in the broker community because the actual listing agent was hidden from view and only those agents that paid to be on the site would have their names adjacent to the listing. In Konrad Putzier’s column this week, he explores this concept further. It was very odd to see Streeteasy stand by their position given the unethical nature. Finally they acquiesced by creating a navigation path to get to the listing agent. What I originally loved about Streeteasy before it was acquired by Zillow, was their neutral position in the market. They built a better mousetrap than the individual brokerages to display listing information and as a result, they became ubiquitous. Now they seem to recognize their lack of competitors and continue to figure out new ways to screw up the site over time.
In real estate today, there are magazines, events and cable access shows where the speakers, or moderators “pay to play” and as a result, the content sucks because the product is not the best that can be offered and the only people that view it are those that paid to play. Streeteasy seemed to ascribe to that model by hiding the listing agent.
The program results in “agents getting opportunities & consumers getting choice,” Spencer Rascoff, CEO of Streeteasy parent Zillow, tweeted last week.
whereas I contended that
“This concept of leveling the playing field is very misleading,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel. “Anytime you pay to play, there is no factoring in competence or local market knowledge. It has nothing to do with the playing field. It has everything to do with who has the most money to pay to be in front of the consumer.”
And that, my friends, screws the consumer since they don’t understand the nuances of who is listing the property. I understand Streeteasy needs to make money, but presenting content and expertise transparently to the consumer is just as important.
Why we won’t see meaningful housing related policy change soon
Politics and personal feelings aside – whatever your views are, Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management makes a compelling case as a regular on CNBC Fast Money that the Trump Trade is over. The market has already decided, based on actions, that the current administration, with all the political distractions, isn’t likely able to follow through on their promises this year.
To housing, that suggests there won’t be a big tax cut, no singificant increase in interest rates, no GSE reconfiguration this year.
The Housing Recovery That Wasn’t
For many U.S. housing market observers, the benchmark determinant of whether we got back to zero has been the S&P/Case Shiller Index. My extreme distaste for this index aside. Only recently has the index exceeded the 2006 peak – that we dug out of the hole we fell into.
Based on a compelling analysis by Trulia, we aren’t quite there yet. For example, home prices in NYC metro are largely below 2006 prices. You can see how the coastal U.S. severly lags price recovery of the central U.S.
Trulia looked at income and home value recovery in this interactive chart its extremely compelling.
The Retail Real Estate Apocalypse
Just walk down a street in the downtown section of your town and take a look at the vacant storefronts. There are probably a lot of them. There is an interesting shift that is occuring. Consumers have been drawn to new urbanism housing trends, you know, walkable cities. Yet the retail that gives them something to walk to is evaporating in front of them.
It’s being called the “Retail Apocalypse” since 90,000 jobs at brick and mortar retail have been lost since October.
Yes, Amazon has played a role, but Lois Weiss, retail journalist maven, provides another nuts and bolts view in her Bisnow column: Retail Is Being Manipulated To Live Another Day
In this Bloomberg Gadfly piece, you can see that department stores are being crushed.
Other Research of Interest
Lower Manhattan Real Estate Market Overview Q1 2017 – This is a study on the economy in lower Manhattan from the Downtown Alliance. I provide them the residential rent and sales data research from my work on the Manhattan sales and rental reports for Douglas Elliman – conditions continue to improve.
Knight Frank Prime Global Cities Index – Knight Frank is a global real estate services firm that has an alliance with Douglas Elliman. I provide housing data for this particular report in markets that I cover in our Elliman report series. Their graphic designers must be on steroids. It’s a fascinating report.
Autocrats and Skyscrapers: Modern White Elephants in Dictatorships: This a fascinating white paper on the proliferation of tall towers worldwide. I discovered this through Citylab, which does great job discussing the phenomenon and bringing in other insights from the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat.
The trend is staggering…
But the Citylab article provides the best answer in the subtitle:
Why Do Autocracies Build Taller Skyscrapers?
Short answer: Because they can!
Appraiserville
Earlier in these Housing Notes, I talked about a Zillow/Streeteasy product called Premier Agent that caused a firestorm in the real estate brokerage community. They were ommitting the actual listing agent from properties that appeared on the site and only presented broker contacts adjacent to it that paid for placement. They eventually compromised, but I was struck by how hard they defended a practice that was clearly misleading the consumer. Being a disrupter as Zillow is, doesn’t mean they have to be unethical. Think about Napster and Uber for example. Now Zillow is in the spotlight again for their “Zestimate” product which has successfully “normalized” AVMs as something everyone can rely on even though they repeatedly say it is not an appraisal.
Zillow Gets Sued Over Zestimates
I linked out to this lawsuit in last week’s Housing Notes but it is starting to snowball. Now columnist Ken Harney writes a great piece on the lawsuit and Phil Crawford landed an interview with the plaintiff, Barbara Anderson, who also happens to be a lawyer.
Zillow’s website prominently disclaims its “Zestimates” are not appraisals, but are merely computer-generated estimates intended to help those looking to sell, buy or refinance a home gain a “ballpark” idea of what a house may be worth. She said Zillow’s estimates primarily rely on public information, but can be adjusted based on information homeowners may provide themselves, to provide key details and information, such as square footage or completed home renovations, that Zillow could not otherwise know.
My key issue with the Zestimate is how they present it. A Zestimate on a house is presented to the dollar. It infers a precsion that doesn’t exist. I’ve been saying that for a decade including in meetings with their president early on and other executives, as well as in this WSJ article back in 2007 when the Zestimate screwed up the value of my home. When I edited my home attributes to correct public record, my value at the time increased 500%. I liked that number better but I wasn’t on drugs.
The SEC is Looking at BPO Inaccuracy in Homebuilder Valuations
Here’s a short clip on whats happening from Bloomberg Radio.
Sports Aside: Derek Jeter Thanks New York
While I don’t bring sports into Housing Notes very often, there is a very good website called The Players Tribune. It’s got a lot of great stories about the trials and tribulations of professional atheletes in their own words. Derek is reportedly close to buying the Florida Marlins and I think he wanted to make sure he didn’t snub New York in the process. I watched him play for two decades. I love this guy.
A Brilliant Idea
If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them. They’ll eat more avocados, you’ll sketch coffee cups and I won’t fall asleep in court.
See you next week.
Jonathan Miller, CRP, CRE
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- Housing Market Slumps as Mortgage Rates Top 7% [Wall Street Journal]
- Big Tech Is Downsizing Workspace in Another Blow to Office Real Estate [Wall Street Journal]
- The Real Estate Nightmare Unfolding in Downtown St. Louis [Wall Street Journal]
- Overview [NYC Comptroller]
- Teranet-National Bank House Price Index continues to rise in March [House Price Index]
- Strong opinions about the housing market [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
- Boomers Bought Up the Big Homes. Now They’re Not Budging. [Wall Street Journal]
- Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in March; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply [Calculated Risk]
- These housing markets will see the most apartment completions through 2029, according to Yardi's updated forecast [Resi Club Analytics]
- Supreme Court to HomeServices: Sitzer/Burnett verdict stands [Real Estate News]
- A Huge Number of Homeowners Have Mortgage Rates Too Good to Give Up [NY Times]
- Florida insurance market full of ‘low quality’ companies, study finds [Tampa Bay]
- The D.C. region needs to build 87 new homes per day. It’s not close. [Washington Post]
- Market Research: The Least and Most Affordable U.S. States to Buy a Home [Tradingpedia]
- 💎 Ritzy Foreclosure Suit [Highest & Best]
- Ten economic facts about rental housing [The Hamilton Project]
- The Brutal Reality of Plunging Office Values Is Here [Bloomberg]
- Inside the “standoff” over what office buildings are worth [Axios]
- Congress’ Quest to Ban Investors from Single-Family Rentals [The Real Deal]
- New Legislation Proposes to Take Wall Street Out of the Housing Market [NY Times]
- Levin Sees "Material Risk" Inflation Not Heading Back to Fed's 2% Target [Kathleen Hays]
- A Cut Above: U.S. Public Equity REIT Occupancy Rates [REIT]
- How Dallas Newcomer Stephen Kotler Plans to Grow Douglas Elliman's Local Market Share [D Magazine]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- Jay Powell just made buying a home this spring even more challenging [Yahoo Finance]
- Palm Beach Daily News Subscription Offers, Specials, and Discounts [Palm Beach Daily News]
- Even doctors earning up to $350K/year are struggling to find homes in this wealthy part of New York — and it's causing trouble for the local hospitals [Moneywise]
- Where did South Florida homebuyers go? Sales fall by double digits in March [Miami Herald]
- Luxury Home Prices Spike in Palm Beach, Florida, While Dipping in Miami Beach [Mansion Global]
- 5-story residential project to rise in Astoria [Crain's New York]
- Inventory, Median Prices Up as South Florida Resi Sales Fall [The Real Deal]
- Rents Are the Fed’s ‘Biggest Stumbling Block’ in Taming US Inflation [Bloomberg]
- Average Home Sales Price Skyrockets In Boca Raton, Drops In Delray Beach [BocaNewsNow.com]
- What you need to know before buying a luxury home [J.P. Morgan Private Bank U.S.]
- They Love Their $14.95 Million Hamptons House. The Problem? Their Dog Hates It [Wall Street Journal]
- Growing Inventory Fuels SoCal Home and Condo Sales [The Real Deal]
- median-rental-price Archives [Sunnyside Post]
Appraisal Related Reads
- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Outlines Options To Prevent Algorithmic Bias In Home Valuations [Consumer Financial Protection Bureau]
- Revisiting Automated Valuation Model Disparities in Majority-Black Neighborhoods [Urban]
- Wait, so rates aren’t going down now? [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
- Appraisal Institute Update for the First Quarter of 2024 [EIN News]
- What's Up With Insurance? [CRE]
Extra Curricular Reads
- Cybertruck Turns Into Large Metal Brick After Going Through Car Wash [Futurism]
- Dickey Betts, hit-crafting mainstay of Allman Brothers Band, dies at 80 [Washington Post]
- Legendary Yankees radio voice John Sterling retires: 'I leave very, very happy' [MLB]
- Homicides Are Plummeting in American Cities [Wall Street Journal]