From Beer Puns To The Lack of Housing Homeruns
As we move forward through this global pandemic, it has become quite apparent that we need more puns. And not just any pun. We need puns about beer (it’s Friday after all).
And if that’s not enough, surfing will do.
When the beach is closed … pic.twitter.com/kgHOaTXZ9c— Rob Szczerba (@RJSzczerba) May 6, 2020
But I digress…
ABC World News Tonight – The Urban to Suburban Shift
Got a nice shout out in this World News Tonight piece by Deirdre Bolton in her new ABC gig. This urban to suburban narrative is already underway, initially via the rental of single-family homes in the surrounding NYC suburbs. I’m not sold yet on the idea that this is a permanent structural change so don’t write off cities just yet.
[From my Matrix Blog] Manhattan Crisis: What Does Our Housing Past Tell Us About Our Housing Future?
Hint: Not so much.
In this Sunday’s New York Times Real Estate Section (online now), the Calculator column featured some data trends I’ve gathered during two significant prior housing market events: What Can 9/11 and the Great Recession Tell Us About Coronavirus Recovery?
The Unemployment Level Surges Ridiculously But Is It Short Term?
Today’s unemployment numbers are blowing away records set in the Great Depression…
"Imagine all the job losses in every recession dating back to the 2nd administration of Dwight Eisenhower (1957-1961) concentrated into a single month – that's the magnitude of what forecasters anticipate in the April employment report:" writes @Riccanomix RE: @ferrotv's question— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) May 8, 2020
…But I wonder if this infers some sort of partial snap back in relatively short order as local economies gradually open (not factoring in a second virus wave in states that paid little attention to shelter in place practices).
I haven’t yet run into any notable discussions about the length of time these high unemployment numbers might persist. Please share any thoughts on this you might have.
COVID-19 Is Battering The Already Battered Luxury Market
Not that type of batter.
There were several excellent articles on the state of the U.S. housing markets. Luxury markets were generally weak going into the COVID-19 crisis due to over emphasis on that sector.
Coronavirus hammers the already battered NYC luxury housing market [Yahoo Finance]
Gauging the outlook for the luxury housing market [Washington Post]
Where the Market Has Stalled: 10 Cities With the Steepest Drops in New Listings [Realtor.com]
Coronavirus Florida: Is Palm Beach’s once-booming real estate market starting to recover? [Palm Beach Daily News]
Another way to look at the emptiness of NYC
Untapped New York is an excellent site that talks about this fascinating short film. I’ve been to most of these locations and the lack of activity is unnerving.
Len Kiefer‘s Chart Handiwork
formatting slides for widescreen format— 📈 𝙻𝚎𝚗 𝙺𝚒𝚎𝚏𝚎𝚛 📊 (@lenkiefer) May 5, 2020
stretching out the axis doesn't change the data, but perhaps changes the way I feel about the data pic.twitter.com/O3nl7JFZJJ
Upcoming Speaking Events
After my talk for Barron’s Live last week, I got a call from a construction trade group in Baltimore Maryland. All aspects of the real estate vertical are starving for information.
(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)
Dave Towne explains ‘modified’ “exterior” and “desktop” appraisals extended to June 30
From McKissick: On May 5, 2020, Fannie Mae announced that the temporary appraisal flexibilities that were outlined in Lender Letter 2020-04 (LL-2020-04) have been extended until June 30, 2020. Freddie Mac made a similar announcement, also extending their flexibilities until June 30.
However, I look to the prolific writer of all things appraisal Dave Towne to bring clarity to the technical changes in the real estate community.
On March 23, 2020, the GSE’s (FNMA & FrMAC) issued new instructions describing how to do ‘modified’ “exterior” and “desktop” appraisals during the Covid-19 time frame (which has been extended to June 30).
Based on thousands of appraisals submitted to the GSE’s since the allowed changes, reports are that appraisers are NOT FOLLOWING DIRECTIONS in the ‘modified’ instructions.
As I have repeatedly said, appraisers must take time to READ THE INSTRUCTIONS issued by each ‘agency’ which currently allows ‘modified’ reports to be done. There are differences between them.
Danny Wiley, with FrMAC, wrote the following message, and asked that many of us circulate it to as many appraisers as possible. This applies to appraisals going to either GSE:
“As we are examining the appraisal reports that are being submitted under the COVID-19 flexibilities, the number one issue we are seeing is related to exterior only appraisals and the analysis/reporting of the interior condition.
For GSE work, it is NOT acceptable to simply assume that the interior condition is “average.” Nor is it acceptable to assume that the interior condition is similar to the exterior condition. Many non-GSE users do allow (and even instruct that) appraisals completed with such assumptions, but these assumptions are not acceptable for GSE work.
The appraiser MUST have a data source for the interior condition. The data sources could include any of the types of sources normally used for comparables. Or, under the revised COVID-19 certs, the data could include information provided by the owner, occupant, agent, etc.
If one cannot obtain a data source for the interior condition, then the appraisal should not be completed. However, the intent of adopting the revised certifications and allowing use of data by the property owner was to minimize the number of cases where the appraiser could not obtain such data.”
Let me add here that using the now-many applications designed to allow someone other than the appraiser to take interior photos and send those to the appraiser is perfectly acceptable for the ‘modified’ “exterior” and “desktop” appraisals.
However, when the assignment is for a traditional Interior/Exterior report, using secondary sources for interior info is not acceptable….per the Scope of Work on the appropriate form. This is no different than what Danny wrote above, in terms of appraiser responsibility.
Dave Towne, MNAA, AVAA, AGA
Appraiser and RAC member Terri Love comments on Pennsylvania’s non-essential real estate classification
My good friend and leading Pittsburgh appraiser Terri Love was interviewed by Pittsburgh TV station WTAE, to bring awareness to the non-essential classification of real estate appraisers and brokers. They number about 100,000 in the state, yet Pennsylvania remains an “island” in comparison to the actions of their surrounding state neighbors who have classified appraisers as “essential.”
This article describes the situation in Pennsylvania.
OFT (One Final Thought)
And to those who have been taking CE classes and mastering some basic housekeeping skills, here is something to aspire to:
Perfect sheet throw💙🤍 pic.twitter.com/P8T2FPAHtN— Satisfying Videos (@Theslimevids) April 19, 2020
Brilliant Idea #1
If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:
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Brilliant Idea #2
You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.
See you next week.
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- Realogy reports $462M first-quarter net loss
- Wages are about to jump faster than ever in history — for all the wrong reasons [Business Insider]
- Why Models Can Never Get Things Quite Right [Bloomberg]
- Why Home Prices Are Rising During the Pandemic [Wall Street Journal]
- BlackRock’s Fink Delivers Grim Outlook With Tax Hikes for Corporate America [Bloomberg]
- Death of the office [1843magazine.com]
- Co-ops and Condos Inch Toward Reopening Amenities [Habitat Magazine]
- Airbnb Lays Off 2,000 Workers Amid Coronavirus [The Real Deal]
- Amy Brandt: The Way Forward in Mortgage Finance [The Institutional Risk Analyst]
- South Florida HOAs and condo associations prepare for a drop in collections [The Real Deal]
- Elon Musk Tweets His Plan To ‘Own No Homes,’ Promptly Lists Two For Sale [Forbes]
- Should you flee your city? Almost 40% have considered it during the pandemic [Fast Company]
- Who is Moving and Why? Seven Questions about Residential Mobility – Blog [Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University]
- A Record Sale in Brooklyn Among April’s Closings [NY Times]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- Luxury condo sales continue. This Sunny Isles penthouse went for $21 million [Miami Herald]
- What Can 9/11 and the Great Recession Tell Us About Coronavirus Recovery? [NY Times]
- Gauging the outlook for the luxury housing market [Washington Post]
- Where the Market Has Stalled: 10 Cities With the Steepest Drops in New Listings [Realtor]
- Coronavirus hammers the already battered NYC luxury housing market [Yahoo Finance]
- Opinion | Flattening the Truth on Coronavirus [NY Times]
- Coronavirus Florida: Is Palm Beach's once-booming real estate market starting to recover?
- Coronavirus Florida: Is Palm Beach's once-booming real estate market starting to recover? [Palm Beach Post]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: Aspen + Snowmass Village Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: North Fork Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Hamptons Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Long Island Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Venice + Mar Vista Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Malibu + Malibu Beach Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Los Angeles Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Miami Coastal Mainland Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Miami Beach + Barrier Islands Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: South & Greater Downtown Tampa Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: St. Petersburg Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Jupiter + Palm Beach Gardens Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Palm Beach Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Wellington Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Delray Beach Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Manalapan, Hypoluxo Island & Ocean Ridge Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: West Palm Beach Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Coral Gables Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Fort Lauderdale Sales 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Royal Palm/Boca Raton 1Q 2020 [Miller Samuel]
Appraisal Related Reads
- Does adding Solar Panels Increase the Value of my home?
- Real Estate is Back in Business, But Far From Business as Usual [Lansing State Journal]
- Seven hundred missing sales [Ryan Lundquist/Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
- Federal Banking Agencies Issue Interim Final Rule to Defer Appraisals and Evaluations for Real Estate Transactions Affected by COVID-19 [JD Supra]
- The Housing Scene: Appraisals, inspections on different paths [Courant]
- Medical Expenses for John C. Carlson – organized by Steve Smith [Go Fund Me]
- Appraisal Rights as Part of the Decision Where to Incorporate: Firm Compares Florida and Delaware [Appraisal Rights Litigation Blog]
- What Is a “Conservative” Appraisal? [Cleveland Appraisal Blog]
Extra Curricular Reads
- Movie of the Week: THE NIGHT STALKER and THE NIGHT STRANGLER [aurorasginjoint.com]
- Beautiful Short Film Looks Back at Empty NYC in Early Pandemic [Untapped New York]
- What Is the Real Coronavirus Toll in Each State? [NY Times]
- The Making of a Legend [NY Times]
- A Trove of Sad, Funny, and Familiar Stories From the 1918 Flu Pandemic [Atlas Obscura]
- Why profanity-laden products are fucking everywhere [Vox]
- This Bakery Turns Internet Trolls' Insults Into Delicious Cakes, And Sends Them Back To Trolls [Sad and Useless]
- What to Make of Murph the Surf? [Sports Illustrated]
- ‘The Last Dance’ Details the Grudges and Grievances of Michael Jordan [The Ringer]
- Beck: Mellow Gold [Pitchfork]
- Analysis | There’s a more accurate way to compare coronavirus deaths to the flu [Washington Post]
- The best sport has always been behind closed doors, ask Air Jordan [SCMP]
- The reason Zoom calls drain your energy [BBC]