- Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants - https://www.millersamuel.com -

October 25, 2019

The Goal Is More Sweet Affordable Rental Housing

But I digress…

Market Report Gauntlet: Long Island Continues to Boom, While Hamptons Struggles

I’ve been the author of the expanding Elliman Report Series for Douglas Elliman Real Estate since 1994 and it is fascinating to see how different each market is, despite close proximity.

And as always, with me its all about the charts. Aside from knowing the report contents were widely read!

Our Hamptons Report content was within the 2nd Most Emailed Article in past 24 hours on Bloomberg Terminal (350K subscribers).

[3]

And a Hamptons chart two-fer!

[3]

[3]

Here are some key points about the Hamptons, North Fork, and Long Island for Q3-2019


HAMPTONS HIGHLIGHTS

Elliman Report: Q3-2019 Hamptons Sales [4]

“Sellers’ willingness to negotiate expanded.”

[5]


NORTH FORK HIGHLIGHTS

Elliman Report: Q3-2019 North Fork Sales [6]

“North Fork saw the second-largest share of East End sales in more than eleven years.”

[7]

[8]


LONG ISLAND HIGHLIGHTS

Elliman Report: Q3-2019 Long Island Sales [9]

“Price trend indicators reached new records.”

[10]

[11]

Making A Mountain Out of a Beach: Aspen Rises While Los Angeles Slides

We observed some improved conditions in Aspen/Snowmass Village sales and price trends while Los Angeles activity is drifting lower.


ASPEN/SNOWMASS VILLAGE SALES HIGHLIGHTS

Elliman Report: Q3-2019 Aspen Sales [12]

ASPEN

“More sales with fewer listings as the pace of market accelerated.”

[13]

[14]

SNOWMASS VILLAGE

“Sales stabilized as listing inventory slipped.”

[15]

[16]


GREATER LOS ANGELES INCLUDING WESTSIDE AND DOWNTOWN SALES HIGHLIGHTS

Elliman Report: Q3-2019 Los Angeles Sales [17]

“While reaching a new overall price record, sales continued to slip.”

[18]

[19]

LA SUBMARKETS

MALIBU/MALIBU BEACH

Elliman Report: Q3-2019 Malibu/Malibu Beach Sales [20]

VENICE/MAR VISTA

Elliman Report: Q3-2019 Los Angeles Sales [21]

Big Residential REIT Gets Thrashed by New Rent Laws

New rent laws are becoming a thing to combat rising unaffordability, i.e. New York, California, and Oregon have all passed significant rent laws to give more power to the tenant. This was apparent the drop in the EQR’s stock price after releasing its third-quarter press release [22]. Here is a summary of the concerns on Seeking Alpha [23].

‘My First Apartment” Podcast by Localize.city: Jonathan Miller, CEO at Miller Samuel

[24]

I had a fun discussion about something I hadn’t given much thought to in a long time with Aaron Ghitelman of Localize [25]: my first apartment [24].


Will The New York State Rent Law Create More Affordable Housing Investment?

If it does, it will take a while.

More from Bob Knakal’s presentation: “Life After Rent Regulation” Parts 3 & 4 (click image to play)

[26]

[27]

Finally, a ±$1M Parking Space Sale Actually Occurs

This has been a thing in NYC but none of the spaces that were hyped either ever sold at all or never sold for close to $1M.

In 2019, we actually saw a parking space close for $969,000 [32] in Hong Kong.

A single, 134.5 square foot parking spot at a 73-storey office tower in the glitzy financial district has sold for $969,000, according to local media reports. That works out to just over $7,200 per square foot. By comparison, the average apartment in upscale Manhattan goes for four times less, at around $1,770, according to real estate analytics firm NeighborhoodX.

The value of Manhattan parking spaces is relational to the property they are associated with. They are not stand-alone assets. In other words, a parking space located in a building with $20 million condos sells for more than a space located in a building comprised of $300,000 apartments, all locational amenities being equal.

Getting Graphic


Len Kiefer [33]‘s Chart Handiwork

I love the context this gives.


Appraiserville

(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC [37] site.)

Beware The Appraiserspeak Gobblygook

A friend of mine got a copy of the appraisal that was done on a relative’s condo in a state my firm doesn’t appraise in. He just wanted to get a reality check on what was said by the appraiser. My friend said the conversation went like this:

“He also pointed to “bracketed sales” in that banks wouldn’t accept a unit at the highest end of the market, like ours, as they needed a closed sale at a higher level already.”

By definition, this appraiser is telling my friend that a condo can never be appraised higher than others in a building unless there is another closed similar sale that is higher priced. Presumably, that means that the other higher sale can’t be appraised higher unless there is another sale that is higher, and so on.

I’m not saying the appraiser didn’t know the market. But I do know that we can get caught up in what a lender requires so much that we can become detached from the valuation process itself.

Our profession has an intense duality: we can be brilliant at valuing a property but be very weak at conveying what we do to the those we interact with. It’s why I believe it would be amazing (but not possible) to require every appraiser to testify at least once in court. The person saying random BS like in this example would be skewered alive.

Jonathan Miller and Phil Crawford in Washington DC!

Phil, Lori Noble and I met in Washington to attend meetings such as ASB, IAC, AEI and a gathering of the Network (State Coalitions) that was extremely insightful in our efforts to return sanity to mortgage lending and create awareness within our industry about the opportunities with the consumer.


OFT (One Final Thought)

In some ways, all of us are burning up inside to make those changes we often don’t seem to get around to.


Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes [40]. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.

See you next week.

Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC [41]
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc. [42]
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog [43] @jonathanmiller [44]

Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed

My New Content, Research and Mentions

Recently Published Elliman Market Reports

Appraisal Related Reads

Extra Curricular Reads