Snakes and Ladders: Climbing Out Of The Housing Pit
Before I forget, last Saturday was International Talk Like A Pirate Day. You have until next year to practice the “talk.” Until then, you need to stay away from snakes – the following video shows you how…wait for it…
Hold my beer while I rescue this snake. pic.twitter.com/MdkWAwXkPt— Hold My Beer (@holdmyale) September 24, 2020
But I digress…
NY Fed: GDP Growth Rate Is Halfway Back
I thought this Weekly Economic Index by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York was encouraging but still dire.
Spectacular Failures: Subprime times at Countrywide Financial
As we’ve discussed the documentary on previous editions of Housing Notes, its good to look back in time every now and then to understand how we got here. Especially because we a much better understanding of what happened with the additional context of experience. We’ll do the same thing after the COVID crisis is resolved (fingers crossed).
The show notes for this podcast are full of goodies. Here are two of them:
One of the provided commercials:
And an interview with Angelo Mozilo, whose only lesson learned seems to be that he should have not been in public so much. His company did nothing wrong and he did nothing wrong? Apparently, that was the lesson he learned. His comments in this interview show he is not remorseful and clueless or heartless about the real damage he caused.
Churn is Good: The “Fleeing The City” Narrative Is Cooling
Affordability passed the point where a correction was needed….
New York, like San Francisco, entered 2020 with one overarching problem: It was far too expensive, as a place to live and work. The pandemic has fixed that problem, with both commercial and residential rents finally coming back into the realm of (relative) affordability.
and immigration policy determines the future path…
The catch: The main driver of both new business formation and population growth in New York has historically been international immigration. So long as immigration remains suppressed, New York will suffer.
Record Low Listing Inventory Is Not A Good Thing
The combination of record-low inventory and record low mortgage rates may very well be a long term economic problem. Those consumers may be more vulnerable to an economic shock since they squeezed into a rapidly rising housing price market because of the good fortune of low rates. Mortgage rates have been falling for the last few years in a strong economy because of the Fed’s management of the trade war with China to keep the economy out of a recession. Yet COVID brought on a historic recession and exposed the chronic lack of supply, partly because new housing development’s focus has been skewed to the higher-end products for a smaller subset of demand since the last recession.
This WSJ chart is mind-blowing.
Look at the price gains in NAR’s median sales price by region and nationwide in the Mansion Global piece. That rate of growth is not sustainable.
Amazon Rooms Are the New Home Offices of the New Safe Rooms
This Hollywood Reporter story “Amazon Room” Becomes Hot Amenity for Hollywood Homebuyers Amid Pandemic relies on an LA luxury real estate broker’s take that “Amazon Rooms” are a new thing for high-end homes.
In a COVID-19 world, buyers are looking for a room to store the many packages that arrive, and also a spot for them to decontaminate before opening.
Wondering if using the garage or spare bedroom wouldn’t be easier?
Bisnow Tri-State Digital Summit Keynote – Digging Out
Yesterday I gave a digital keynote presentation for Bisnow. The purpose of the entire event was to provide an understanding of where real estate is at the moment and where it is going.
Our favorite charts of the week of our own making
Len Kiefer‘s Chart Handiwork
Upcoming Speaking Events
Too many to list here – ran out of time!
(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)
I took a break from being an appraisal curmudgeon this week. Jim and Dave can rest easy for now.
OFT (One Final Thought)
The sheer drudgery of data collection back then is overwhelming to consider in the current world.
The impact of capturing and inputting personal data into computers, 1970 pic.twitter.com/jdUbVrGYzF— Vala Afshar (@ValaAfshar) September 24, 2020
Brilliant Idea #1
If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:
- They’ll be more paleo;
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Brilliant Idea #2
You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.
See you next week.
Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed
- Carmel Partners Sells Norwalk Rental Valued At $157M [The Real Deal]
- Zillow Launches Residential Brokerage for iBuying [The Real Deal]
- 9 of Every 10 Restaurants and Bars in N.Y.C. Can’t Pay Full Rent [NY Times]
- South Florida condo covered in beer cans receives multiple offers [Sun Sentinel]
- "Amazon Room" Becomes Hot Amenity for Hollywood Homebuyers Amid Pandemic [Hollywood Reporter]
- This is the Great Reshuffling [New Geography]
- U.S. Existing-Home Sales Reach a Nearly 14-Year High [Mansion Global]
- Suburban Home Prices Are Rising. But So Are Most Urban Home Prices [Wall Street Journal]
- The math of New York City's recovery [Axios]
- China's property developers seek to dodge new rules with shift of debt off balance sheets [Reuters]
- Americans Want Homes, but There Have Rarely Been Fewer for Sale [Wall Street Journal]
- Our comeback is already in progress: Mayor de Blasio says doom and gloom about NYC’s future is utterly unwarranted [NY Daily News]
- Actually, we’re in deep trouble: Work is changing profoundly, and NYC will not be able to adapt [NY Daily News]
- K-Shaped Recovery to Worsen Inequities in Jobs to Real Estate [Bloomberg]
- Report: With or without Industry City rezoning, Sunset Park has a housing crisis [BKLYNER]
- A Million Mortgage Borrowers Fall Through Covid-19 Safety Net [Wall Street Journal]
My New Content, Research and Mentions
- How to Negotiate With Your Landlord [NY Times]
- Efecto coronavirus: los ricos huyen a La Florida y compran casas de lujo [La Nacion]
- The Cracks In New York City's Multifamily Market Are Widening [Bisnow]
- Brooklyn real estate market is making strong returns [Personal Financial]
- Brooklyn’s Pending Home Sales Soar as Manhattan Struggles [The Real Deal]
- In New Development, Buyers Favor the Boroughs [The Entrepreneur Fund]
- Wish to stay like a Rockefeller? The household's New York co-op lists [US News]
- Soho Scores Its Priciest-Ever Deal With $35.14 Million Penthouse Sale [Wall Street Journal]
- New York City Apartment Leases Tumble While Renters Stay Put [News Break]
- Want to live like a Rockefeller? The family’s Manhattan apartment lists for $11.5 million [LA Times]
- 搬離大城市 郊區地產夯 | 世界新聞網 [World Journal]
- Manhattan, Brooklyn and northwest Queens see fewer apartment leases signed in August 2020 than 2019, Douglas Elliman report says [New York Business Journal]
- 纽约都会区的房市形势 | 世界新闻网 [World Journal]
- Miller Samuel CEO on N.J. Millionaire’s Tax, Manhattan Real Estate [Bloomberg]
- NYC Real Estate 2020 & Beyond – Featuring Jonathan Miller & Noah Rosenblatt [Urban Digs]
Recently Published Elliman Market Reports
- Elliman Report: Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals 8-2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: New York New Signed Contracts 8-2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Florida New Signed Contracts 8-2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: California New Signed Contracts 8-2020 [Miller Samuel]
- Elliman Report: Colorado New Signed Contracts 8-2020 [Miller Samuel]
Appraisal Related Reads
- Crazy contracts & condos are less popular [Sacramento Appraisal Blog]
- Appraisal Forms Redesign – What's Coming Down the Track? [Dave Town/Appraisers Blogs]
- Statutes of Limitations for Appraiser Negligence – Christensen Law Firm [Valuation Legal]
Extra Curricular Reads
- Ring’s latest security camera is a drone that flies around inside your house [The Verge]
- Stony Creek Quarry and the Granite that Built New York [Untapped Cities]
- America's 200,000 COVID-19 Deaths: Small Cities And Towns Bear A Growing Share [NPR]
- The High Privacy Cost of a “Free” Website [The Markup]
- Blacklight [The Markup]
- The Long, Strange Journey of Buffalo Bill's Corpse [Mental Floss]
- Hut Spicer, All-Around Crook [Miscreants and Malcontents]