investor | Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller

May 15, 2006 | 12:01 am |

Boom Bubble Bust Development, Construction, Architecture & Land Rentals, Investing

Source: Bubblemeter

The infamous Bubble Bench in Fairfax County Virginia was presented by Bubblemeter a few months ago and immortalized in a Washington Post front page story on the housing market.

There are now only three lockboxes on the bench. According to Bubblemeter, it doesn’t suggest the market is improving. The developer likely asked them to be removed.

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Investor Path: Stock Markets -> Housing -> Commodities -> Gold?

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller

May 15, 2006 | 12:01 am |

Canada Boom Bubble Bust Economy International Rentals, Investing

With the housing market not seeing the returns of the past few years, investors have been looking at alternatives for a while now. Wall Street is seeing green with the DJIA moving close to a record high. However, some investors are seeing gold in the red-hot commodities market or just plain gold [WaPo], which acts both as a safe-haven asset [theStreet.com] against geopolitical uncertainty and as an inflation hedge against rising energy prices.

Upbeat bulls are clearly in the majority on Wall Street right now [WaPo], and truly negative bears are hard to find. But many stock traders and market analysts can identify reasons to be worried about the current state of affairs, and some are actively predicting at least a short downturn by the end of the year.

Gold futures, often a haven for “gold bugs” — investors concerned about inflation and geopolitical or stock market turmoil — rose above $700 in New York this week for the first time since 1980. Silver is at a 25-year high, and copper and platinum both set records in the week, though copper pulled back a bit by week’s end.

Perhaps we will start seeing Gold Bubble Blogs fairly soon as the price continues to rise rapidly.

Tags: Canada, Canadian Housing Market

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[Getting Graphic] Investors Take A Seat

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller

March 28, 2006 | 1:48 pm |

Boom Bubble Bust Charts, Maps, Images, Infographics, Video Rentals, Investing

Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite real estate-related images(s).

This photo was taken this past Sunday in Northern Virginia. Its a collection of lockboxes for investor units being flipped in a condo development. The balloons on specific lockboxes must be part of a well thought out marketing strategy.

Go to Bubble Meter to get the whole story.

Tags: Getting Graphic

1 Comment

Got Game? For Real Estate Investors With Virtually Too Much Time On Their Hands

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller

February 27, 2006 | 12:01 am |

Boom Bubble Bust Celebrity, Pop Culture Humor or Whimsy

I was reading The Real Estate and got a chuckle over the The Virtual Mogul post about Atari’s new game Tycoon City: New York, where players will get the chance to carve their own empires out of the Big Apple from humble origins. (Well thats not reality since many New York developers are second and third generation).

Donald Trump seems to have the dominated board and video real estate games with his titles Donald Trump’s Real Estate Tycoon and Trump – The Game, both of which get pretty good reviews.

A couple of questions come to mind:

Do developers actually play real estate video games? (no way)
Has the recent housing boom transcended all age levels that kids would give up Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas and Madden NFL 2006? (no way)
Does Atari think that kids or teens will play real estate games or do they expect adults to? (no clue)

Wouldn’t Atari sell more copies if they re-named their new game:

The Real Estate Developer Wars: Assemble The Most Key Parcels Of Land With The Most FAR! ?

Tags: New York Observer

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To The Passive Investor In Builder Stocks, Not A Stud In Sight

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller

February 1, 2006 | 12:01 am |

Boom Bubble Bust Development, Construction, Architecture & Land Economy Government, Politics, Regulations & Policy

The boom in homebuilder stocks has far outpaced the housing market. Over the past 6 years, Standard & Poor’s Homebuilding Index has increased 675%, but has fallen 18% since last summer. At the same time OFHEO’s House Price Index only shows a 57% increase over the same period (not that I am crazy about OFHEO’s stat validity).

Kiplinger Magazine agrees “with Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac, who expects a “soft landing,” meaning that home prices won’t fall, but they’ll grow at a much slower pace. He predicts 5% a year on average, rather than the torrid 15% annual growth that some regions have experienced during the past five years.”

They contend that if prices continue to rise, even modestly, that profits will continue to be realized. Stocks are only trading at about 6x 2006 earnings, well below 15x for the overall market.

There are two strategies presented in the article, depending how you think the housing market is going to move.

Tags: OFHEO

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Investors As Wild Card

by Jonathan Miller | @jonathanmiller

August 22, 2005 | 7:54 am |

Boom Bubble Bust Brokers, Agents, MLS, NAR Economy

Investors are the wild card of the current housing boom [Note: Subscription]. The NAR released a report last spring that said 23% of all homes purchased in 2004 were for investment and an additional 13% were vacation homes. Presumably, ratio of investors to owner occupancy will be even greater in 2005.

Here lies the problem for investors…

The rental market has taken a large hit over the past 4 years as lower mortgage rates have converted would-be renters into buyers. The free flow of capital stimulated rental development up until the past year, when it switched to condo development as prices rose rapidly. Now the increase in investor activity may drive down rents [Note: Subscription], placing more pressure for investors to sell quickly and not hold out for a higher price.

Tags: NAR, National Association of Realtors

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Trump,Investors sell property In New York City for 1.8 billion

Wall Street profits go up as investors get down to party

January 15, 2021

The Shapes of Words In The Language of Housing

Linear regression to an economist pic.twitter.com/MSsSCBlFMp
— Ryan Briggs (@ryancbriggs) January 2, 2021

But I digress…

Manhattan Apartment Nearly Double YOY

I’ve been the author of the expanding Douglas Elliman market report series since 1994. The December 2020 Elliman Report for Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals was published yesterday. The key takeaway pertained to the continued sharp drop in rents creating more affordability, drawing in more demand as well as existing tenants playing musical chairs trying to get better deals.

The Bloomberg piece on the rental report was the fifth most-read article by the 350K Bloomberg Terminal subscribers at one point on Thursday despite the insane volume of non-housing market news.

Most importantly, the article contains the most whacked-out chart of new leasing activity will the plunge in rents (in two colors)!

Elliman Report: December 2020 Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals

______________________________________________________
MANHATTAN RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

“For the third straight month, new lease signings rose to their highest level for the current month since the financial crisis.”

New leases rose sharply to the most signed for December in more than a dozen years
The vacancy rate slipped from last month’s record to the third-highest on record
The monthly concession rental equivalent slipped from last month’s record to the second-highest on record
Net effective median rent fell year over year at the second-highest rate in at least nine years
Smaller apartments sizes saw a larger percentage decline in median rent than larger apartment sizes
The market share of landlord concessions was sharply lower for the luxury market than for the remainder of the market

______________________________________________________
BROOKLYN RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

“For the second consecutive month, new lease signings rose to their highest level for the current month since the financial crisis.”

New lease signings surged annually to the most signed for December in more than a dozen years
The net effective median rent fell year over year at the highest rate in more than eight years and fell to its lowest level in nearly six years
The market share of landlord concessions fell short of the prior month record but represented nearly half of all market activity

______________________________________________________
QUEENS RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

[Northwest Region]
“New lease signings showed significant growth as rental price trends continued to tumble.”

Net effective median rent fell year over year for the eighth consecutive month
New lease signings surged after sixteen months of annual declines
The monthly concession rental equivalent rose to a new record

Westchester County Sees Sales Surge From City Demand and Record Low Mortgage Rates

Douglas Elliman published our research this week on the NYC suburban markets of Westchester and Putnam/Dutchess counties of New York.

Of course, there is the ever-important Bloomberg chart on Westchester’s price gains (in two colors)!

______________________________________________________
WESTCHESTER SALES MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Elliman Report: Q4 2020 Westchester County Sales

“Prices and sales pressed higher as listing inventory continued to fall.”

Median sales price surged annually to the second-highest level on record
The number of sales in the fourth quarter was the most for a fourth-quarter on record
Listing inventory fell year over year for the sixth straight quarter
Single family median sales price across all bedroom categories posted large gains, with the highest in the larger sizes
More than a third of single family sales that closed in the quarter went to a bidding war
The highest number of condo sales of any quarter on record
Condo sales surged after three consecutive quarters of significant declines
Luxury listing inventory fell year over year at the highest rate in eight years
Luxury months of supply showed the fastest market pace in eight years

______________________________________________________
PUTNAM SALES MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Elliman Report: Q4 2020 Putnam County and Dutchess County Sales

“The market continued to show more strength with rising prices and year over year surge in sales.”

The number of sales saw an annual surge at their highest rate in more than four years
Largest annual increase in median sales price in twelve quarters
Listing inventory fell year over year at the highest rate tracked in thirteen years

DUTCHESS SALES MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Elliman Report: Q4 2020 Putnam County and Dutchess County Sales

“Price indicators continued to show significant gains as listing inventory fell sharply.”

Median sales price jumped annually at the highest rate tracked in thirteen years
Listing inventory fell year over year for the fifth consecutive quarter
Months of supply fell to the fastest market pace in more than six years of tracking

A Photoshoot On A Terrace Overlooking Central Park

Crain’s New York asked me to do a photoshoot on the terrace of a spectacular apartment overlooking Central Park West to be used with a story on the housing market. I did just that and the photographer was the same person that photographed me for a Crain’s cover about two decades ago.

Here’s what the photoshoot looked while in progress and that amazing terrace:

And this was the photo used in the Crain’s New York piece. This appraisal work is fun!

A Homebuilder CEO Comment From 2007 That Didn’t Suck

This week I learned about this 2007 story about a publicly-traded U.S. homebuilder CEO comment in a public forum:

“Donald Tomnitz, CEO of D.R. Horton (DHI), flipped his lid speaking at a Citigroup investor conference. “I don’t want to be too sophisticated here, but 2007 is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar year”

And all the business outlet headlines then screamed with glee on the ability to use language typically reserved from conversations among friends.

NBC: D.R. Horton CEO: 2007 will ‘suck’
Fox/AP: CEO of Nation’s Largest Homebuilder: 2007 Is Going to ‘Suck’
CNBC: What’s ‘Tough’ for One CEO ‘Sucks’ for Another

While some outlets couldn’t handle it:

LA Times: Frankly, builder sees slump in ’07
BBC Bleak housing outlook for US firm
Orange County Register Housing slump will linger, D.R. Horton exec says

But this sarcastic WSJ headline response was the best:

WSJ: An Eloquent Oration on the Condition of the Manufacture of Domiciles

Inspired, I did the same thing today and it was fun and efficient but not something I plan to incorporate into all my presentations.

At the close of a presentation to a large audience of real estate agents today, I was asked to succinctly compare the Manhattan sales market of 2020 to the potential for 2021. Upon reflection, I said that 2021 had the potential to suck less.
— Jonathan Miller (@jonathanmiller) January 14, 2021

The Best Manhattan Real Estate Dad Joke Ever

Based on the Bloomberg story regarding a 51% discounted resale at supertall One57 that I shared here last week on housing notes, economist/writer Daniel Gross lays this Manhattan-specific humor on us.

so, more like OneHalf57 https://t.co/n6IzuTx7De
— Daniel Gross (@grossdm) January 14, 2021

Getting Graphic

Our favorite charts of the week of our own making

Our favorite charts of the week

[NYT – click on image for supporting article]

Appraiserville

(For earlier appraisal industry commentary, visit my old clunky REIC site.)

In The Aftermath of the AI Board Meeting, FOJs Double Down On Their Corruption With Another 45-Day Notice

Lots of stuff to discuss here but not enough time to make a living – so I will be posting extensively about the BOD meeting and this new 45-Notice on my Matrix Blog this weekend. I will link back here as well as provide the link in next week’s Housing Notes.

NREP’s Take On FHFA Modernization Efforts And The Public Comment Period

I’ve often said that Appraisal “Modernization” is a codeword for “AVM.”

Some of the coalitions are drafting a response:

Dale Bailey of the South Carolina Professional Appraisers Coalition [SCPAC] said this:

Several Coalitions are drafting a response, for the record, about the change in the process and how we feel about some of those changes. We are hoping to have each Coalition be represented in the final paper. Please send any contributions of issues you may have with these changes to us for incorporating into the paper. It would help a great deal to have input from as many of you as possible.

USPAP Doesn’t Require An Inspection So Why Is It Trying To Determine What An Inspection Is 30 Years Later?

The ASB is struggling with the 4th Exposure Draft and issues of clarifying significant professional assistance and what an inspection means? Why? USPAP doesn’t require an inspection – never has. And good grief…a FOURTH exposure draft in an already over-analyzed two-year USPAP cycle?

The reason why Dave Bunton & Co. (TAF) has been emphasizing the Supervisor position is they are trying to retrofit USPAP back into the position. This is the same institution that felt it was appropriate to send this bat-shit crazy letter to their regulator.

Think about what has been said at every AQB meeting since Plymouth Rock – “trainees” are unable to find supervisors to mentor them to get their experience credits or banks won’t accept their reports and therefore they can’t get work to make a living. This is one of the biggest problems with the lack of diversity in the appraisal profession and it starts with the lack of diversity at TAF. This non-diversified institution, despite perhaps, the best intentions of those that are active are trying to solve the problem of getting more diversity into the profession. Yet the industry is aging and not diverse because the bureaucratic largess that TAF has created in the merry-go-round USPAP cycle gradually made it nearly impossible to join.

Incidentally, Title XI doesn’t require experience! Take a step back and look at other professionals like lawyers and accountants – they are required to take a comprehensive (hard) exam and do not have to have thousands of hours of experience. The public trust of these professions is not damaged by this practice. As a good friend of mine in Oklahoma has told me many times “appraising isn’t rocket science.”

Why is experience a unique requirement by the appraisal industry? TAF has constructed a gatekeeper mentality to the profession, that is manned by appraisers who are not largely diversified either. This is an epic fail and largely has resulted in a lack of diversity and an aging appraisal population.

And by the way, “experience” is always ongoing and appraisers must always continue to learn. The market will decide the value of your experience as an appraiser. Tagging an appraiser as a “trainee” is essentially tagging them as a liability and then artificially derived a number of required hours magically makes them a non-liability. I’ve known residential trainees in my market who were far more competent than experienced MAIs.

Incomes of supervisory appraisers have been squeezed by the AMC mentality of the mortgage industry and therefore most don’t want to take on a “trainee” and dedicate two years of training to someone who can’t sign a report for most clients, provides additional liability, and may leave to go on their own after certification.

Let’s try to focus on the bigger issues that impact the everyday lives of appraisers than on this insane &^&^%$#%^** busywork minutia that does nothing but reduce the wide-scale entry to all into the profession.

Let’s up the industry’s game to be at least as competent as other professional services. After all, the current gatekeeper mentality pushed by TAF on the backs of the supervisors is damaging the public trust. My goodness.

TAF Still Focuses On Money Over Diversity, For BOT Positions

From Dave Bunton’s recent TAF announcement:

TAF’s own press release is seeking candidates that will be FODs (Friends of Dave), they show that financial prowess takes precedence over the appraisal profession. It’s just baked into a non-profit institution with $8 million in reserve.

Our annual call for applicants is a real opportunity to cast a wide net for candidates that bring leadership and non-profit management experience who also have a deep interest in advancing the appraisal profession

Diversity would be great to emphasize given the total lack of it, of course. But considering that their announcement lists serving the profession AFTER non-profit management experience shows their priority remains finances over the profession. The fact that the announcement doesn’t even talk about some of the things facing the profession (e.g., bias, waivers) shows how detached they are from actual appraisers.

OFT (One Final Thought)

Thinking about that Steve Miller song and where that word Pompatus came from…

Then stroll through this list.

The pompatus of love.

– U.S. top 20 for January 12, 1974 pic.twitter.com/mAYdxJ19gj
— The '60s at 60 (@the_60s_at_60) January 12, 2021

Brilliant Idea #1

If you need something rock solid in your life (particularly on Friday afternoons) and someone forwarded this to you, or you think you already subscribed, sign up here for these weekly Housing Notes. And be sure to share with a friend or colleague if you enjoy them because:

They’ll be cruder;
You’ll be cruder;
And I’ll use crudeness to improve the narrative.

Brilliant Idea #2

You’re obviously full of insights and ideas as a reader of Housing Notes. I appreciate every email I receive and it helps me craft the next week’s Housing Note.

See you next week.

Jonathan J. Miller, CRP, CRE, Member of RAC
President/CEO
Miller Samuel Inc.
Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants
Matrix Blog @jonathanmiller

Reads, Listens and Visuals I Enjoyed

My New Content, Research and Mentions

Recently Published Elliman Market Reports

Appraisal Related Reads

Extra Curricular Reads

January 8, 2021

Housing Has A Runway In Front Of It

2021 so far…wait for it…and think about taking some Dramamine.

Some days are harder work than others… https://t.co/sMa4CM3VEA
— MenTourPilot (@MenTourPilot) January 5, 2021

But I digress…

The Manhattan Sales Market Continues To Claw Out Of The Hole COVID Dug

I’ve been writing the expanding Elliman Report series for Douglas Elliman since 1994. One of the first reports we undertook covered the Manhattan sales market. This week we published the Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales Q4-2020 that showed market activity surging after the lockdown ended but still falling short of the prior-year quarter. Sellers are pricing better to drive more deal flow and based on the results of the New Signed Contract Report covered later down the page, there is a possibility that year-ago parity will be reached by the spring.

Coverage of note (in no particular order):

Bloomberg: Manhattan Home-Shoppers Aren’t Finding Huge Covid Discounts Yet
New York Times: New York real estate begins to recover after a grim year.
The Real Deal New York: Manhattan’s condos get year-end sales boost as inventory balloons
Crain’s New York Business: Manhattan ends 2020 with stronger residential sales

Here’s the same Bloomberg chart two different ways.

______________________________________________________
MANHATTAN SALES MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Co-ops & Condos
After lagging the region’s sales trends during the COVID era, Manhattan sales levels surged from the prior quarter but remained short of the level reached in the same period a year ago.

Elliman Report: Manhattan Sales Q4-2020

The number of sales surged from the prior quarter but fell short of year-ago levels
The market share of cash buyers fell to a new record low as mortgage rates plummeted
The price trend indicators showed mixed results from prior-year levels as sales activity improved at the upper end
Median resales price slipped for the fifth time in six quarters
The number of co-op sales jumped from the prior quarter but fell short of year-ago levels
There was a significant year over year uptick in condo sales above the $5 million threshold, particularly new development
Luxury median sales price rose annually for the second straight quarter skewed by the rise in sales size
The market share of new development closings exceeded the quarterly average for the decade

A screenshot from my internal spreadsheet shows the jump in high end sales as seller’s dropped prices to the new market level:

______________________________________________________
NORTHERN MANHATTAN SALES MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Elliman Report: Northern Manhattan Sales Q4-2020

“Apartment sales surged from the prior quarter while townhouses shifted to larger sized sales.”

Co-ops & Condos
– The number of sales surged from the prior quarter but remained short of year-ago levels.
– Listing inventory fell from the prior quarter record but remained sharply higher than the same period last year.

Townhouses
– Overall price trend indicators rose above year-ago levels, skewed by the shift to larger sized sales.
– Listing inventory continued to fall sharply along with the number of sales.

New Signed Contracts Are Up Everywhere

The New “New Signed Contracts Report” series we launched for Douglas Elliman in the early days of the lockdown has been showing growth across the four regions we cover:

Elliman Report: New Signed Contracts New York December 2020
Elliman Report: New Signed Contracts Florida December 2020
Elliman Report: New Signed Contracts California December 2020
Elliman Report: New Signed Contracts Colorado December 2020

Most notably, Manhattan exceeded year-ago levels for the first time since the COVID lockdown.

______________________________________________________
New York New Signed Contracts Report

Elliman Report: New Signed Contracts New York December 2020

Manhattan
New signed contracts for co-ops and condos rose annually for the first time since the lockdown ended while townhouses have continued to exceed year ago levels since September. Co-op and condo new listing inventory have fallen year over year for the third straight month.

Brooklyn
New signed contracts for all three property types were more than triple the levels seen in the year-ago period, continuing the streak since July. New listing inventory saw significant gains but was overshadowed by new signed contract growth by a multiple of three to four times.

Long Island (excluding H/NF)
New signed contract activity for each property type rose year over year for the sixth straight month. Modest new inventory gains were significantly overpowered by robust new signed contract growth.

Hamptons
New signed contract activity for each property type rose year over year for the seventh straight month. The significant gain in new inventory continued to exceed new signed contract growth in recent months.

North Fork
New signed contract activity for each property type rose year over year for the seventh straight month. Overall new inventory declined year over year for the first time since May.

Westchester
New signed contract activity for each property type rose sharply year over year for the sixth straight month. Modest new inventory gains were significantly overpowered by robust new signed contract growth.

Fairfield
Single family new signed contract activity rose year over year for the sixth straight month while new inventory fell year over year for the third straight month, keeping the market pace brisk.

Greenwich
Single family and condo new signed contracts continued to show gains of roughly triple the levels of the same month last year. While new listings for both property types were up over the same period but growth remain significantly below the rate of new signed contracts.

______________________________________________________
Florida New Signed Contracts Report

Elliman Report: New Signed Contracts Florida December 2020

Palm Beach County
New signed contracts for single families and condos nearly doubled from year ago levels with greater growth seen at the upper price tranches. New inventory for both property types continued to slide, keep the market pace brisk.

Broward County
Condo new signed contract annual growth continued to outpace single family growth. larger year over year gains were observed in the higher price tranches. Overall new inventory for both property types showed modest change.

Miami-Dade County
New signed contracts for condos rose at nearly three times the rate of single family new signed contracts with generally more gains at higher price tranches. New listings for condos fell sharply.

Pinellas County
Single family new signed contracts edged up year over year with more significant gains seen in the higher price tranches. Condo new signed contracts fell year over year but growth in most of the upper price tranches remained strong.

Hillsborough County
New signed contracts for single families showed stability while condos showed modest annual gains. The upper price tranches for both property types showed significant year over year gains.

______________________________________________________
California New Signed Contracts Report

Elliman Report: New Signed Contracts California December 2020

Los Angeles County
Year over year gains for condo new signed contracts continued to outperform single family new signed contract growth. New inventory for both property types fell sharply, helping maintain the robust market pace.

Orange County
New signed contracts for single families and condos continued to decline year over year. New inventory for both property types fell sharply, helping maintain the robust market pace.

San Diego County
New signed contracts for single families and condos continued to decline year over year. New inventory for both property types fell sharply, helping maintain the robust market pace.

______________________________________________________
Colorado New Signed Contracts Report

Elliman Report: New Signed Contracts Colorado December 2020

Aspen
New signed contracts for single families showed large annual gains while condo new signed contracts doubled over the same period. Single family new inventory fell sharply for the second straight month, overpowered by new signed contract gains.

Snowmass Village
New signed contracts for single families pressed higher year over year but at the lowest rate since tracking began in July. Single family new inventory fell sharply year over year for the third time in four months.

With a 51% Price Drop, One57 Has New Definition of “Value”

About a month ago, I worked up this chart but never used it – the units are sorted by apartment number with the resale following the original sponsor sale. The blue rows denote resale closings in 2020 At some point, the developer of One57 claimed that the May closing of unit 88 was not an “arm’s length” transaction and its 40.9% discount, therefore, wasn’t real.

However since that May closing, there were four additional closings by August 2020, and three of the four showed discounts in excess of 40% with the outlier only dropping 18.9% in value.

Today Bloomberg reported an additional resale that closed for a 51% discount in December.

The developer who indicated that the 41% discounted resale in May wasn’t “arm’s length” was the same developer who said this in today’s Bloomberg article.

“Clearly, over six years ago the buyer understood the value of this unit,” Gary Barnett, chairman and founder of Extell, said in a statement. “Unfortunately, this was an estate sale and they decided to just dump it.”

Here’s my translation of what was said:

“When prices go down, developers rationalize it by thinking people stop recognizing the value.”

Yet what Extell is really saying is:

“The seller’s definition of value is “what I want it to be or need it to be.”

The reality here is that market value is a moving target and condo development is one of the riskiest property types to speculate. I take my hats off to developer’s in this regard because I don’t have the stomach for it. Just look at what prominent developer HFZ is going through now. This is because a boom like we just went through has a short shelf-life yet the development window is often much longer, taking 2-4 years or perhaps even a decade, like Hudson Yards. Timing and luck are considerable components of development.

It is important to understand that value is not the highest number that can be achieved. That’s really something else. Value is always defined by a moment in time.

The Pied-a-Terre Tax 2 is Blinded By Politics And Devoid Of Critical Thinking

Habit Magazine’s Proposed Pied-a-Terre Tax: Windfall or Boondoggle? provided a good overview

Intentions were good, but the overzealous Housing Stability and Tenant Protection act of 2019 removed any upside for landlords or investors which will lead to a 1960s and 1970s gradual decay in the rental housing stock. It’s already begun. Maintenance has dropped and construction staff had been let go well before the pandemic.

Now the threat of the return of “PAT2” in a multi-edited version of the proposed Pied-a-Terre Tax is more or less personal – based purely on principle without consideration of sustainability. If a tax is proposed that brings in little to no net revenue, then what is it? It’s just a personal attack on the real estate economy that drives more than 50% of New York City’s tax revenue. Cut revenue drastically, on top of the aftermath of the pandemic impact and you cut even more revenue to the city and then see a cut in services. Once you remove yourself from the fog of politics, why would anyone want that?