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A real estate bubble? An economic analysis of the Manhattan residential real estate market

Business360
John Marchant, Roger Sharp
September 24, 2004, 43 Pages pages

This report, in its entirety, is now available for download free of charge but Business360 encourages you to contribute to the costs of preparing this work to help ensure further updates. Instructions are available in the report. Miller Samuel has received no direct compensation for participating in this study.

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Using sales price data provided by Miller Samuel, Business360 has completed an economic review of the Manhattan residential real estate market. This review extends back some 25 years and gives an historical perspective on valuations of both condos and co-ops.

Using economic data on personal income and interest rates, along with real estate prices, Business360 examined the market on a range of core metrics including price to personal income and affordability. The research company concludes that the Manhattan mass-market is not overvalued and that valuations today are at the low end of historical norms

Business360 point out that since the early 1980s, Manhattan real estate prices have lagged personal income gains and that had real estate prices kept pace with personal income increases, real estate prices would be over double current levels. Further, the decline in interest rates over this period now makes real estate much more affordable.

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