Peak Suburb Has Passed

December 28, 2020 | 2:22 pm | | Explainer |

The New York Times got the market nuances right in their epic end of year The Real Estate Collapse of 2020.

And including epic charts makes it even better.


I noticed that the Streeteasy median rent chart used in the piece shows the same pattern as my recent chart in Bloomberg. That drop in rent is gigantic.



[Source: Bloomberg – click image to open article]

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NYT Real Estate: Signs of a Manhattan Rental Market Recovery

November 21, 2020 | 12:49 pm | | Charts |

This weekend’s New York Times Real Estate Calculator column provides a visualization of the recent rental market results in The Elliman Report: October 2020 Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals

The Manhattan changes were the most interesting to me – record highs set for the vacancy rate, concession market share, concession amount, yoy% change in median net effective rent overall, studio, 1-bed, & 2-beds. Yet we saw for the first time in fourteen months, a jump in YOY% new lease signings and the highest October new lease signing total on record.

The significantly weaker rental market final hit a point that caused demand to begin to flood back into the market.


[click to open article]

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The ‘Urban To Suburban’ Narrative Is Really ‘Manhattan To Suburban’

August 19, 2020 | 1:26 pm | | Charts |

This post previously appeared in the August 14, 2020 edition of Housing Notes. I’ve been writing these weekly summaries on housing topics for more than five years. To subscribe for free, you can sign up here. Then you can look forward to each issue every Friday at 2pm New York Time.

The New York Times created a terrific graphic on our Elliman New Signed Contract Report by illustrating the performance of Manhattan and Brooklyn versus Westchester County. Brooklyn’s sales market performance is closer to Westchester than it is to its city counterpart.


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Manhattan Co-op Sales Fall During Federal Election Year

February 5, 2020 | 3:52 pm | | Charts |

For the past decade, I’ve been observing a pullback in sales in the summer of an election year and then a release in sales after the election into the new year, no matter the party or the candidate. I was speaking about this to Sylvia Varnham O’Regan at The Real Deal Magazine, and she asked me to prove it empirically.

So I did.

Her article: This is how presidential elections really affect home sales lays it out for the Manhattan market.

My methodology:

  • The data set was co-op based because they account for 74% of the apartment market and doesn’t have the wild fluctuation of contract versus closing date because of condo new development lags.
  • We don’t have all the contract dates for co-ops, but for those we do, they have been remarkably consistent at around 90 days. That 90-day average was applied to all the closing dates to reverse-engineer contract dates.
  • Contracts for even and odd years were compared: Even years represented federal election years, including midterms.

The results compared federal election years to non-federal election years, finding that beginning in June of an election year, sales were progressively weaker than their non-election year counterpart. The most significant difference occurred in September during an election year with a 12.7% weaker sales market than a non-election year. Beginning in November during an election year, sales overpower their non-election year counterpart, with the release of pent-up demand occurring well into the following spring.

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January 2019 YOY% Change in Manhattan Co-op/Condo Listing Inventory

February 7, 2019 | 1:53 pm | Charts |

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Elliman Magazine Winter 2019 – Market Update

December 14, 2018 | 3:18 pm | | Charts |

The Winter 2019 Issue of Elliman Magazine was just released. I provided a two-page spread showing various market tidbits on random U.S. markets where Douglas Elliman has a footprint. The magazine is well done and a good aspirational read.



[click to expand]

Here’s the full online version of the magazine:

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Manhattan Residential Vacancy Rate Isn’t Seasonal?

December 13, 2018 | 1:01 am | Charts |

Since housing market trends are all about seasonality, I thought it was interesting that the Manhattan residential vacancy rate seems devoid of such patterns.

What am I missing here?

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New Manhattan Condos Got Really Big Over The Past Three Years

January 3, 2018 | 6:00 am | Charts |

Average sales size patterns for these two size sales categories split sharply three years ago.


[Click to expand]

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2017: The Year The 2015 Manhattan Market Shift Became Conventional Wisdom

January 1, 2018 | 11:00 am | | Charts |

After controlling the Manhattan housing market for quite a while, sellers and landlords exchanged roles with buyers and tenants circa 2015.

After peaking in 3Q 2015, the market share of bidding wars fell by two thirds. Bidding wars remain more common at lower price points. After bottoming in the 3Q 2015, the market share of rentals with landlord concessions has expanded sharply due to high-end rental development over-building. But like the sales market, the oversupply remains at the upper end.

Aside

Sunday, December 31, 2017, was a trifecta of my New York Times Real Estate market insight goodness before the year ended:

Landlords and Sellers Adjust [New York Times: Calculator column]

Manhattan Prices Stable in 2017, Even as Luxury Takes a Breather [New York Times: Big Ticket column]

Ditching the Tub [New York Times]

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Real Estate ChartArt in Elliman Magazine’s Fall 2017 Issue

September 18, 2017 | 3:12 pm | | Charts |

Douglas Elliman Real Estate just published their fall issue. I created the content for pages 208-209 and I think it looks pretty snazzy (and interesting).

Click on image below to expand.

EllimanMag

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Our Manhattan Luxury Housing Price Indices on Bloomberg Terminals

March 4, 2017 | 10:03 pm | Charts |

Bloomberg maintains 6 quarterly charts on their terminals covering the Manhattan luxury sales and rental results we compile.  I periodically throw these charts on this Matrix Blog only because I find myself asking…how cool is that?

Manhattan Luxury Average Sales Price

Manhattan Luxury Average Sales Price Per Sq Ft

Manhattan Luxury Median Sales Price

Manhattan Luxury Average Rental Price

Manhattan Luxury Average Rental Price Per Sq Ft

Manhattan Luxury Median Rental Price

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NYT Calculator Chart: The Resale Pendulum Swings Toward Middle

January 21, 2017 | 2:50 pm | | Charts |

I love the way the NYT Real Estate section handled the data from our Elliman Report series to present the Manhattan resale market.

2017-1-22NYTcalculator

I added my chart on bidding wars below – falling as supply enters the market, causing resale prices to soften.

4qoverlistmanhattan

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