Crains New York Business Economic Spotlight Chart – April 2006

April 24, 2006 | 12:01 am | | Charts |

Since 2003, I have provided a chart that appears once a month in the Economic Spotlight section of Crain’s New York Business magazine. Here is this month’s chart appearing in the current issue of Crain’s New York Business.

Please go here for an archive of all Crains’s New York Economic Spotlight charts that have I created for them. They are organized by year.

Here’s a link to a bigger version of this chart [Miller Samuel]

Source: Crain’s New York Business


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[In The Media] Squawk Box 5-2-06

April 24, 2006 | 12:01 am | Public |

I’ll be on Tuesday’s morning edition of Squawk Box on CNBC. I’m tentatively scheduled to be on at 7:40am (May 2, 2006).

I’ll be discussing the current state of the residential real estate market, east coast real estate trends, specifically New York. I believe they are doing a daily segment with representatives from different parts of the country. On Monday someone will discuss the west coast markets.

UPDATE: Thats Tuesday, May 2, 2006 not April 25, 2006 as originally posted.


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Agitation Of Socks and Underwear: Getting Our Urban Housing Priorities Straight

April 24, 2006 | 12:01 am | Public |

All the focus on new urbanism and all the marketing hype placed on the dreaded cliche lifestyle in new development and re-sale of real estate, has made many forget the non-practical (do we hear pet spa?) until its too late.

After the marketing hype passes on a property sale, some new property owners realize they don’t have some of the basic amenities they really want.

Teri Roger’s article on having a washer/dryer in your own apartment [NYT] covered more detail about these cherished appliances than I thought was humanly possible yet still kept me interested. [Spin cyle: she referenced my firm so it had to be a good read. -ed]

Its an age old issue in urban housing made more complicated by the housing boom – owners in older buildings are concerned about overwhelming ancient plumbing yet prices have risen so much that potential or new owners are amazed when they don’t have the right to have them in their units. Moving trends from suburbs to cities have made this issue more important than ever before. Clandestine installs in unmarked boxes have provided sales opportunities to appliance sellers.

In terms of real dollars, it isn’t so much what a washer-dryer adds to an apartment’s value as what its absence subtracts. This can be a deal killer for a certain type of buyer, particularly families with young children, and a price buster for a certain type of dwelling.

Sometimes its the little things that mean a lot.



[Curbed] Three Cents Worth: Square Feet On The Other Foot

April 19, 2006 | 8:24 am | | Columns |

Its Wednesday, so its that time of the week to provide my Three Cents Worth, as a post for Curbed, a real mother of a real estate web log.

Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Square Feet On The Other Foot

Previous posts can be found here.


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Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Getting Our ARMs Around Studios, 1BRs

April 5, 2006 | 4:51 pm | | Columns |

Here is my Wednesday post for Curbed, the third cousin, twice removed of all real estate web logs.

Three Cents Worth: Getting Our ARMs Around Studios, 1BRs

An archive of previous posts can be found here.


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The Real Deal Podcast: Jonathan Miller On Manhattan 1Q 2006

April 5, 2006 | 11:42 am | | Public |

[The Real Deal has innovated the delivery of information about the New York real estate market in its magazine and online format to its readership. This is part of a series of podcasts on the state of the Manhattan housing market. -ed]

Jonathan Miller

Is the Manhattan housing market cooling or is it still hot? [TRD]

The podcast format allows me to summarize the results of the just completed 1st Quarter 2006 Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan market Overview without rattling off a bunch of statistics – those you can get from my report which will be posted on my web site shortly.



[Media Chain-links] 1Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview

April 4, 2006 | 7:39 am | | Public |

The 1Q 2006 Manhattan Market Overview that my appraisal firm, Miller Samuel, prepares for Prudential Douglas Elliman, was released today. I always think its interesting (actually, its fun) to see how the various media outlets (Big and Small Media, Blogs) respond to the exact same set of data and how the real estate brokerage companies who write alternative reports, frame their comments.

This list is in no particular order and excluded all the redundant articles (ie news feeds). I will keep adding to it through the week after the initial post.

Apartment Prices Up Again After a Slump in Manhattan [NYT]
Housing frenzy slows down[NYDN]
Wall Street bonuses lift Manhattan apartment prices [Reuters]
Reports: Luxury Housing Boom May Be Reaching Its Crest [NY Sun]
First Quarter Reports: Thousand Island [NYO The Real Estate]
Housing market still steady [NY Newsday]
City Apts. Defy U.S. Bubble Trouble [New York Post]
Condo boom boosts Manhattan real estate market [Inman News]
Manhattan housing market shows weakness [CNN/Money]
Manhattan Apartment Sales Cool Off [TheStreet.com]
Manhattan Apartment Prices Climb at Slowest Pace in Three Years [Bloomberg] IMMOBILIARE: SALE, SI SGONFIA OPPURE CROLLA [Wall Street Italia]
Manhattan housing market booms in first quarter [The Real Deal]
State o’ the Market Update: Through Thick and Thin, ‘Essentially Flat’ [Curbed]
Brokers say New York real estate market is cooling [Financial Times]
[Wall Street Bonuses Fuel Manhattan Real Estate Surge [DJ]](no link)
A game of telephone [Property Grunt]
Manhattan Market Up, Psychology Down in Q1 [Brownstoner]
Real Estate Rashomon [Walk-Through]

Here are a handful of radio and tv clips as well.


[Bloomberg TV]


[WNBC-TV]


[WPIX WB11]


[WABC-TV]

[WCBS Radio]


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Sitting On The Fence (Stone Wall), Thinking About The Future Of Housing

April 3, 2006 | 12:10 am | | Public |
Source: Businessweek


Businessweek released their seminal housing issue led by Peter Coy’s cover story Buyer [And Seller] Beware [BW] and far ranging variety of topics that makes for a must read. Of course, with my photo included (I believe I can pass for an economist – note: telltale coffee mug), I swear I am unbiased in this declaration [wink].

Whats great about the article is that it delves into buyer and seller pyschology and affordability rather than throwing a whole bunch of sensational dated stats at you and screaming bubble in every paragraph.

Navigating the housing market is all about making good choices by focusing on how you think about housing:

  • Avoiding herd behavior – there is not always safety in numbers.

  • Loss aversion – some people are unable to be rational because they bought high to begin with.

  • Overconfidence – mistakenly assuming that you don’t need to consider a worst case scenario.

  • Looking backward – Sellers tend to be 6 months behind the market.

  • Castle thinking – Atleast consider renting as an option to purchase.

  • Keeping up with the Joneses – Conspicuous consumption can be a bad thing.

  • Tangibility fallacy — Housing is not always safer than stocks and bonds.

Businessweek economist Michael Mandell sees a long term net gain but slow-motion drop of about 10% over the next few years with some regions hit harder than others. What is particularly interesting to me is that the take-away from the dot-com market correction: a softening in market conditions should be taken as a return to normal, not a catastrophe.

Of course, some of this advice is easier said than done. Its like that Steve Martin joke about getting a million dollars and not paying taxes. “First” Martin declares, “get a million dollars.”



Selling Out: The High Stakes Game Of Spin

March 31, 2006 | 9:06 am | | Public |

Troy McMullen’s thorough article today Condos With a Name: ‘Available’: The Architect May Be A-List, But the Location Often Isn’t; Meier, Libeskind Languish [WSJ] talks about the Starchitect phenomenon and how thats not necessarily the panacea for real estate developers trying to move their product. [and my firm is cited as a source in the article – excessively shameless plug]

I recently wrote an article about Starchitects in New York Living and concluded that while it was an effective way to differentiate a new offering, the initial motivation for their services is now diluted as it becomes the norm and the efforts don’t tend to stand out as much any more.

Its definitely an exciting time for lovers of architecture.

One of the most difficult aspects of rating the success of a new development is how rapidly the units are being absorbed. Having been on both sides of the fence, first as a condo sales director more than 20 years ago, and since then as an appraiser, I can appreciate the dilemma that all parties go through in this process. There is a lot of money at stake and much of the success of the project depends the timing of its entry to the market. Its all about keeping the momentum going in the initial concentrated marketing effort.

The data is not verifiable in public record until closings begin and rumors among the brokerage community can spread like wildfire. The speed of absorption tells us how accurately the property is priced and how well the mix of units matches the neighborhood. The exageration of sales success can backfire as the development moves closer to completion. The gap between actual sales and “told” sales gets more and more difficult to explain as evidenced in this article and can result in a consumer backlash.

At the end of the day, its still all about price and its relationship to the amenities provided. And in a less frenzied market, price becomes even more critical and the market less forgiving.

Here is another article I wrote on the problems appraisers face in valuations within new developments:
Appraising “New” New York Real Estate [New York Living]


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Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Gets Zipped & Ranked

March 29, 2006 | 4:27 pm | | Columns |

Here is my Wednesday post for Curbed, the great uncle’s second cousin twice removed of all real estate web logs.

Curbed: Manhattan Gets Zipped & Ranked

An archive of previous posts can be found here.


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Shameless Self-Promotion: Top 25 Real Estate (Related) Blogs

March 24, 2006 | 12:16 am | Public |

In an unscientific poll, Realty Blogging: A Network of Blogging Evangelists Writing On Effective Real Estate Blogging ranked Matrix and Soapbox in the top 25 of all real estate related blogs. Matrix also won Most Interesting Real Estate Blog.

This does not really represent any real in depth surveys or analysis but its fun nonetheless.

Hey, I am the only one to have 2 blogs on the list! 😉

The winners are the main sites I read daily with a few new sites in the mix (get the links here)

Affordable Housing Institute
Behind The Mortgage
Brownstoner
Central VA real estate news, trends and opinions
Center for Realtor Technology
Curbed
grow-a-brain
Hot Property
Housing Panic
Inman
lenderama
Matrix
My East Bay Agent
Northern Virgina Real Estate
Property Grunt
Rain City Guide
Real Estate Marketing Blog
Soapbox
Tampa Bay’s Inside Real Estate Journal
The Mortgage Reports
The Real Deal
The Real Estate Blog
Toronto at Home
Urban Digs
The Walk-Through

Ok, back to work…


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Shameless Self-Promotion: Top 25 Real Estate (Related) Blogs

March 24, 2006 | 12:01 am | | Public |

In an unscientific poll, Realty Blogging: A Network of Blogging Evangelists Writing On Effective Real Estate Blogging ranked Matrix and Soapbox in the top 25 of all real estate related blogs. Matrix also won Most Interesting Real Estate Blog.

This does not really represent any real in depth surveys or analysis but its fun nonetheless.

Hey, I am the only one to have 2 blogs on the list! 😉

The winners are the main sites I read daily with a few new sites in the mix (get the links here)

Affordable Housing Institute
Behind The Mortgage
Brownstoner
Central VA real estate news, trends and opinions
Center for Realtor Technology
Curbed
grow-a-brain
Hot Property
Housing Panic
Inman
lenderama
Matrix
My East Bay Agent
Northern Virgina Real Estate
Property Grunt
Rain City Guide
Real Estate Marketing Blog
Soapbox
Tampa Bay’s Inside Real Estate Journal
The Mortgage Reports
The Real Deal
The Real Estate Blog
Toronto at Home
Urban Digs
The Walk-Through

Ok, back to work…


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