[Eye on Real Estate] WOR NewsTalk Radio 710 June 5, 2010

June 5, 2010 | 9:59 pm | | Public |

For each week’s Eye on Real Estate Show on WOR NewsTalk Radio 710, we include a segment called “The BlogCast” where I discuss several housing related (sometimes a stretch) posts from some of my favorite blogs. They cover topics that are current, funny or simply a “must read”.

Saturday’s BlogCast covered the following blog posts:

[Ezra Klein/WaPo] On jobs, watch the trend A lot of us have the tendency to look at each new month as a wholly separate slice of data and celebrate if it looks good and fret if it looks bad…So far this year, we have averaged about 100,000 new jobs each month with that rising to nearly 140,000 over the past three months. That is what many of us had expected when we talked about modest to moderate job growth this year.” In other words, “the trend is your friend.”

[Extraordinary Observations] Where the Smart People Live It’s becoming increasingly accepted that there is real economic value to bringing a lot of smart and entrepreneurial people together in the same place…The theory that there is economic value to having smart people together rests on the assumption that smart people collaborate with each other. Conclusion: smarter people live in areas with higher cost housing – but it sounds dumb, no?

[Curbed] New Identities Pitched for Troublesome Hudson Square Manhattan is famous for Manhattan neighborhood acronyms. SOHO, NOHO, TRIBECA, NOMAD, FIDI and MEPA How do you solve a problem like West Soho? Or is it the Lower West Side? Or Hudson Square? Whichever neighborhood name you choose, one thing’s clear: None are catchy enough to stick in the minds of tourists. Suggestions include North of the Holland Tunnel: “NoHoTu” and my favorite suggestion was Holland Tunnel Approach: “HoTunA”.


If you missed this past Saturday’s show or any prior show, you can listen to the podcast at any time or subscribe to it for free via iTunes to always get the latest show delivered automatically to your computer or handheld device. My Blogcast is usually in the first hour of the show.

Listen to the most recent Eye on Real Estate podcast.

Subscribe to the free weekly Eye on Real Estate podcast.

Become a fan on Facebook.

Or visit the Eye on Real Estate Website.


Tags: , ,


[In The Media] Bloomberg Radio The Hays Advantage 12:30pm

June 2, 2010 | 9:15 am | | Public |

Just a bit of house cleaning…err NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index being released at 10am this morning.

I’ll be on The Hays Advantage show with Kathleen Hays on Bloomberg Radio talkin’ pending home sales (contracts) today at 12:30 on AM1130, XM channel 129 or SIRIUS channel 130.

Always enjoy being on her program.


Tags: , , , ,


[Eye on Real Estate] WOR NewsTalk Radio 710 May 29, 2010

May 31, 2010 | 9:21 pm | | Public |

For each week’s Eye on Real Estate Show on WOR NewsTalk Radio 710, we include a segment called “The BlogCast” where I discuss several housing related (sometimes a stretch) posts from some of my favorite blogs. They cover topics that are current, funny or simply a “must read”.

Last Saturday’s BlogCast covered the following blog posts:

[Gothamist] Where’s The City’s Worst Cell Service? The best cell phone service can be found in the Lincoln Tunnel, which sees the fewest dropped calls. The worst spots include the Cross Bronx Expressway, along the river on the West Side Highway, Long Island City and Sunnyside in Queens, as well as part of the Upper East Side between 87th and 94th streets…

[Brick Underground] Hold that hotdog! 4 ways to rat-proof your patio before the other guests arrive A friend of ours lucky enough to live in a Chelsea apartment with a rear patio noticed she had company this spring: A gypsy contingent of rats was using her rear wall as a superhighway to the restaurant next door, occasionally detouring to her place for a refueling stop… This topic was timely given the weekend’s NYT/Real estate article on outdoor space.

[Credit Slips] How to Find the Owner of Your Mortgage Concerns continue about parties filing foreclosures when they do not own the note. Florida recently enacted a rules requiring plaintiffs in foreclosure to verify ownership of the note…


If you missed this past Saturday’s show or any prior show, you can listen to the podcast at any time or subscribe to it for free via iTunes to always get the latest show delivered automatically to your computer or handheld device. My Blogcast is usually in the first hour of the show.

Listen to the most recent Eye on Real Estate podcast.

Subscribe to the free weekly Eye on Real Estate podcast.

Become a fan on Facebook.

Or visit the Eye on Real Estate Website.


Tags: , ,


[Eye on Real Estate] WOR NewsTalk Radio 710 May 22, 2010

May 24, 2010 | 10:03 pm | | Public |

For each week’s Eye on Real Estate Show on WOR NewsTalk Radio 710, we include a segment called “Jonathan Miller’s BlogCast” where I discuss several housing related posts from some of my favorite blogs. They cover topics that are current, funny or simply a “must read”.

Last Saturday’s BlogCast covered the following blog posts:

[The Curious Capitalist] The hidden changes in financial reform The Senate passed its financial reform bill. Huzzah! What did the Senate wind up with after three weeks of such intense lobbying and debate?…

[Trulia Blog] Trulia RealtyTrac Survey: American Attitudes Towards Foreclosure Today, Trulia.com and RealtyTrac released the latest results of an ongoing survey tracking home buyers’ attitudes towards foreclosures. The new online survey conducted on their behalf from May 10-12, 2010 by Harris Interactive® showed a notable decrease in consumers’ willingness to buy foreclosed properties compared to one year ago…

[WSJ/Developments Blog] U.S. Mortgage Delinquencies Appear to Level Off The number of American households behind on mortgage payments appears to be leveling off at a high level, a survey showed Wednesday… I also discussed the MBA confusion over the results in a great New York Times article.


If you missed this past Saturday’s show or any prior show, you can listen to the podcast at any time or subscribe to it for free via iTunes to always get the latest show delivered automatically to your computer or handheld device. My Blogcast is usually in the first hour of the show.

Listen to the most recent Eye on Real Estate podcast.

Subscribe to the free weekly Eye on Real Estate podcast.

Become a fan on Facebook.

Or visit the Eye on Real Estate Website.


Tags: , ,


[Newspaper Wars] Appraisers Finally Get Editorial Recognition

May 18, 2010 | 12:28 pm | | Public |

For a housing market obsessed by real estate coverage, residents of New York City are like drug addicts being given heroin (or like an appraiser being giving perfect sales comps) by the sheer volume of real estate market coverage.

But that’s not the point I’m trying to make here. The appraisal profession has entered the media fray by name in major publications.

A few months ago the Wall Street Journal announced they were expanding their news coverage to include the New York metro area to compliment their national coverage. They expanded their staff and made a commitment to a new section called Greater New York and includes local real estate market coverage.

To counter the move, the New York Times is beefing up its real estate coverage to supplement its iconic weekend real estate section.

Within WSJ’s new Greater New York section is a page devoted to real estate. Among one of the daily features is a section called “The Assessor” which includes a graphic and some factual housing tidbits. One of the early names under consideration for the feature was “The Appraisal” but eventually became “The Assessor” (same diff).

The New York Times added a weekly column: “The Appraisal” by Christine Haughney, a former real estate reporter for the Sunday real estate section and a current New York (Metro) section reporter, she provides weekly buzzworthy real estate articles of substance.

While the appraisal profession remains a mystery to many (including me), the coverage of real estate certainly doesn’t.

Well, that’s my appraisal of the situation, anyway.



[The Assessor] New WSJ Column, Includes, Well, An Appraiser (Also Hamptons Data)

April 28, 2010 | 7:35 pm | | Public |


[click to read article (subscription)]

This week’s Wall Street Journal introduces a Greater New York section that focuses on, among other things, regional real estate. They’s staffed up have been the talk of the real estate community for the past month.

The new column “The Assessor (prior names under consideration included “The Appraiser” – how cool would that be?) features a sort of factoid visual presentation of some element of regional housing each day.

Today I contributed a slice of Hamptons data, including five metrics, to focus on five towns that had the highest average sales price in the luxury section of the 1Q 2010 Hamptons/North Fork Market Overview I prepare for Prudential Douglas Elliman. However I took the towns and analyzed all the sales, not just those in the top 10% of the entire East End and compared them to the prior year quarter and prior quarter.

The idea was to take a look at a slice of the market and see how it performed. It is really a bad idea to look at individual towns for trends in that market as many attempt to do because the data sets are way too low and varied to be statistically meaningful and can be misleading. The 5 time sample size for this analysis was deemed adequate.

One thing that is clear – sales in these higher-priced towns outpaced the overall rate of sales growth suggesting that the high-end market seems to be returning to the fray. In addition, the jump in median and average sales prices do not suggest that is how prices are rising, but rather how there was a substantial shift in the mix towards high-end sales.

I’m just sayin’…

Actually I’m not saying there’s a housing recovery. We seem to be observing a return to a more reasonable mix of sales activity, rather then the substantial skew toward the lower priced market segments during 2009.



[Public Speaking] GreenPearlEvent’s REMarTech

April 26, 2010 | 8:56 am | Public |


[click to open]

I’ll be a speaker on Day 2: Thursday Morning April 29, 2010 at 8:40 AM on the Master Bloggers and Microbloggers panel.

It’s a great panel of people I know and respect.

The entire conference, which starts on Wednesday, is full of great resources and accomplished professionals. Ryan Slack, the founder of GreenPearl, is focused on providing content that people can actually apply to their everyday work experience.

You can register here.



[Public Speaking] VU2010 Moving Forward: The State of the New York Real Estate Market

April 26, 2010 | 8:44 am | | Public |

Tomorrow morning, I get to be the keynote speaker for this event – a brief presentation. Vivian Marino of the New York Times and her distinguished panel gets to do the heavy lifting. Online registration is here.



[Valuation Magazine] 1Q 2010 Feature Article

April 6, 2010 | 5:15 pm | Public |

[click to open article]

In the current issue of Valuation Magazine, the quarterly publication of The Appraisal Institute, the largest US appraisal trade group, featured me in their membership profile feature called “Face Value.” The article is called “Empire Building: an appraiser in NYC takes on $1 billion conversion venture“. The article covers a venture I am participating in called Condominium Recovery, LLC.

The Appraisal Institute approached me to seek understanding of how I leveraged my appraisal expertise towards a non-traditional use.

Whats great about the article is that I get to use appraisal terminology like “highest and best use” without having to elaborate. Whats great about the venture is I get to work with legendary coop/condo converter, builder and manager Gerald Guterman.

It’s going to be an interesting couple of years.


Tags:


[In The Media] Bloomberg News 3-23-2010

March 24, 2010 | 12:18 pm | | Public |


[click to play clip]

I did a short interview on Bloomberg yesterday regarding their coverage of Knight Frank’s 2010 Wealth Report

The Bloomberg coverage was in reference to my contribution to the report via interview where they matched me up against their analyst Xavier Wong, Head of Research for Greater China and Hong Kong.

The prime New York market, where prices fell 12.5% in 2009, is gaining strength , but the recovery is tentative, says Leading New York property commentator Jonathan Miller

The frozen market in Manhattan in the first half of 2009 gave way to a much stronger second half of the year. By the summer, the market began to see a recovery in sales activity following an improvement in economic confidence prompted by a revival in the stock market.

While the market has undoubtedly improved compared with last year, we ought not to get too excited. The recovery of late 2009 was a short-term uptick, due in large part to a release in pent-up demand. My view is that the surge in demand is not the start of a rising housing market. While sales are up sharply, prices have moved “sideways.”

I have some lingering concerns for the New York market in 2010. The market has been aided by government stimulus measures – tax credits for first time buyers, in particular. This package will expire in mid-2010. While the US economy is growing, the high rate of unemployment – around 10% and somewhat higher locally – as well as a tight mortgage lending environment do not provide a firm basis for ongoing growth in house prices.

A real fear for 2010 is rising mortgage rates, currently at near record lows. The potential for growing foreclosures, which were not a problem in 2009, is another real factor.

One segment of the market that has seen a noticeable uptick has been international demand, where the weak dollar has prompted interest from Asia, Europe and South America. Demand from South Korea has also become more noticeable.

Looking outside New York, both Boston and Washington DC have also improved, with rising resale volumes in both markets. On Long Island, the Hamptons luxury second home market has surprised everyone with its resilience to date. As a discretionary market, there was general concern that this region would see large declines in prices and sales from the 2008 and early-2009 market turmoil. In fact, both sales and price trends have remained in line with the Manhattan market.

Watch the clip which summarizes the report [Bloomberg]
Open 2010 Wealth Report [Knight Frank]


Tags: , ,


[Knight Frank Research] The Wealth Report 2010 – Global High End Housing Down 5.5%

March 23, 2010 | 6:30 pm | | Public |

[click to open report]

The Wealth Report 2010 was released today by Knight Frank Research. It is a much anticipated annual survey targeted at the high end consumer with great detail on global residential property trends. The report covers 56 high end housing markets across the globe.

Check out The Housing Helix podcast for my interview with Andrew Shirley, Editor and Liam Bailey, Head of Residential Research for the Knight Frank Wealth Report 2010.

I had provided commentary on the NYC housing market for the report.

….While the market has undoubtedly improved compared with last year, we ought not to get too excited. The recovery of late 2009 was a short-term uptick, due in large part to a release in pent-up demand. My view is that the surge in demand is not the start of a rising housing market. While sales are up sharply, prices have moved “sideways.”…

Some interesting data points:

  • Overall annual global decline was 5.5%
  • Monaco saw prices as high as $5,900 p/SF US.
  • 73% of cities saw year over year declines versus 40% last year.
  • Middle East down 27.5% – the largest decline – Dubai showed a 45% drop.
  • Asia Pacific up 17.1% – the highest increase – Shanghai showed a 52% gain.

In light of this strong growth, the Hong Kong government has threatened measures to restrict the market – notably through mortgage lending restraint, reducing, for example, the mortgage limit for luxury property from 70% to 60%. Despite these potential restrictions the market continues to grow.

This example points to an interesting development. The crippling impact of property bubbles bursting in Europe and the US has created a much more confidently interventionist approach in China, Hong Kong and Singapore (where cooling measures were introduced in September last year) among other markets.

Listen to the interview with Knight Frank [The Housing Helix Podcast]
Download The 2010 Wealth Report [Knight Frank]


[click to play clip]

Update: Just came across the Bloomberg video and my interview giving a quick take on the US luxury portion.


Tags: ,


[Public Speaking] New York Law School March 17, 2010

March 15, 2010 | 3:29 pm | Public |

Wednesday Morning March 17, 2010 8:15am breakfast forum:
The Future of Residential Real Estate in NYC


[click to expand]

Future speaking events


Get Weekly Insights and Research

Housing Notes by Jonathan Miller

Receive Jonathan Miller's 'Housing Notes' and get regular market insights, the market report series for Douglas Elliman Real Estate as well as interviews, columns, blog posts and other content.

Follow Jonathan on Twitter

#Housing analyst, #realestate, #appraiser, podcaster/blogger, non-economist, Miller Samuel CEO, family man, maker of snow and lobster fisherman (order varies)
NYC CT Hamptons DC Miami LA Aspen
millersamuel.com/housing-notes
Joined October 2007