[Tax Planning on Steroids] 4Q 2012 + 2003-2012 Hamptons/North Fork Decade Reports

January 25, 2013 | 12:08 pm | | Reports |

[click to open reports]

We published our 4Q 2012 reports for both The Hamptons and North Fork. Since this was the final quarter of 2012, we also released our Hamptons/North Fork Decade report, a ten year moving window data compendium of the Hamptons/North Fork market from 2003-2012

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

HAMPTONS 4Q 2012

  • Most fourth quarter sales and lowest level of inventory in 6 years.
  • Highest average sales price in 7 years, skewed by high end market strength.
  • Days on market expanded as older listings were absorbed due to lack of supply.
  • Credit remains tight as economy slowly improves.
  • Inventory falling – low to negative equity, no urgency to list.
  • Sales rising as record low mortgage rates create demand.
  • A release in pent-up demand from election year and “fiscal cliff” concerns over rising taxes.over rising taxes.

NORTH FORK 4Q 2012

  • Inventory at lowest level in four years.
  • Sales rising from record low mortgage rates and pent-up demand.
  • Credit remains tight as economy slowly improves.
  • Inventory falling – low to negative equity, no urgency to list.

HAMPTONS/NORTH FORK 2003-2012

  • Median sales price up 31.9% over decade.
  • Average sales price nearly doubled, reflecting emphasis on luxury market over the decade.
  • Number of sales 20.4% less than in 2003.
  • Days on market 2 months slower than in 2003.


Here’s an excerpt from the 4Q 2012 report:

HAMPTONS…The final quarter of the 2012 Hamptons housing market was characterized by unusually heavy sales volume and falling inventory, which both hit 6-year highs and lows, respectively. The strength at the upper end of the market continued to skew the overall price indicators higher, while the pace of the market accelerated and older listing inventory was more readily absorbed…

NORTH FORK…The fourth quarter 2012 North Fork housing market was marked by upward price pressure, falling inventory, rising sales and a faster pace than we had seen in the same quarter a year ago. The price gains were weighted towards the end of 2012, as falling inventory provided buyers with fewer options and record low mortgage rates fostered additional affordability…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 4Q 12 and annual 2003-2012 data. I’ll post the updated charts soon. In the meantime you can browse our chart library.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Hamptons Sales [Miller Samuel]
he Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Hamptons/North Fork Decade [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Hamptons Sales [Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 North Fork Sales [Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Hamptons/North Fork Decade [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Turning Corner?] 4Q 2012 + 2003-2012 Long Island Decade Reports

January 25, 2013 | 11:48 am | | Reports |


[click to open reports]

We published our report on the Long Island sales market for 4Q 2012. Since this was the final quarter of 2012, we also released our Long Island Decade report, a ten year moving window data compendium of the Long Island market from 2003-2012

This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

4Q 2012

  • Lowest fourth quarter inventory level in 8 years, down 21% from a year ago.
  • Year end rising momentum in sales as pending sales outpaced closed sales.
  • Price indicators were up across-the-board from a year ago.
  • Credit remains tight as economy slowly improves.
  • Inventory falling – low to negative equity, no urgency to list.
  • Sales rising as record low mortgage rates create demand.
  • A release in pent-up demand from election year and “fiscal cliff” concerns over rising taxes.

2003-2012

  • Sales increased for first time since 2006.
  • Median sales price up 3.2% over decade.
  • Market peak in price was 2006, same as the US housing market.
  • Housing prices have shown stability for 3 years.


Here’s an excerpt from the 4Q 2012 report:

…Long Island, like much of the greater New York region, is experiencing a chronic short of listing inventory. Steadily declining over the past several years, Long Island listing inventory reached an 8-year low in the fourth quarter. The large year-over-year drop in supply was met with an increased level of sales activity, both in terms of signed contracts and closed sales…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 4Q 12 and annual 2003-2012 data. I’ll post the updated charts soon. In the meantime you can browse our chart library.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Long Island Decade [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Long Island Sales [Douglas Elliman]
The Elliman Report: 2003-2012 Long Island Decade [Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Tightening] 4Q 2012 Palm Beach Report

January 21, 2013 | 10:49 pm | | Reports |

We published our inaugural report on the Palm Beach, Florida sales market for 4Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Luxury market prices outpaced the overall market.
  • Overall price indicators show sharp year over year gains.
  • Overall sales levels trending higher.
  • Days on market expanded as demand worked off older inventory.
  • Negotiability between buyers and seller fell sharply.



    Here’s an excerpt from the report:
CONDO/TOWNHOUSE Median sales price jumped 23.9% from the same quarter last year to $588,750. Average sales price and average price per square foot edged 5.8% and 1.3% respectively over the same period. Number of sales jumped 56.1% year-overyear to 64 sales, but remained unchanged from the prior quarter…

SINGLE FAMILY Although this market segment represents a narrow submarket of Palm Beach, the number of sales nearly doubled from prior year levels, reaching 26. All price indicators showed double-digit year-over-year gains; median sales price increased 13% to $2,775,000 over the period, while average sales price and average price per square foot showed larger gains, rising 32% and 26.1% respectively…

You can build your own custom data tables. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area shortly.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Palm Beach [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Palm Beach [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Looking Up] 4Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale Report

January 21, 2013 | 10:40 pm | | Reports |

We published our report on the Fort Lauderdale, Florida sales market for 4Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Overall price indicators show year over year gains.
  • Overall sales levels trending higher.
  • Luxury condo prices jumped, single family slipped.
  • The time to sell a property fell sharply.




    Here’s an excerpt from the report:
CONDO/TOWNHOUSE
Median sales price jumped 19.4% from the same period last year to $215,000. Average sales price and average price per square foot increased 13.5% and 12.9% respectively over the same period, while number of sales increased 3.7% to 474…

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price jumped 13.8% from the prior year quarter to $182,000. Average sales price and average price per square foot increased 2.6% and 6.3% respectively over the same period. There were 457 fourth quarter single-family sales, a 19.3% surge above prior year levels…

You can build your own custom data tables. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area shortly.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Rising, Faster] 4Q 2012 Boca Raton Report

January 21, 2013 | 10:29 pm | | Reports |

We published our report on the Boca Raton, Florida sales market for 4Q 2012. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Overall price indicators show sharp year over year gains.
  • Overall sales levels trending higher.
  • Marketing times fell sharply and negotiability between buyers and seller narrowed.




Here’s an excerpt from the report:

CONDO/TOWNHOUSE Median sales price of a Boca Raton condo jumped 28.2% from $93,000 in the prior year quarter to $119,250. Over the same period, the number of sales edged 1.4% higher to 642. With 1,227 active listings, the monthly absorption rate was 5.7 months, consistent with the past several quarters…

SINGLE FAMILY Median sales price surged 17% from the prior year quarter to $310,000. Number of sales jumped 17.9% to 566 sales over the same period, the largest fourth quarter total in more than 6 years. With inventory at 1,127, the absorption rate, or number of months to sell all active listings at the current pace of sales, was 6 months, which was consistent with the past several quarters…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 4Q 12 data. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area soon!




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Boca Raton [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Boca Raton [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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[7-Year List Low] 4Q 2012 Queens Report

January 21, 2013 | 10:21 pm | | Reports |

We recently published our report on the Queens sales market for 4Q 2012. This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Although year-over-year inventory slipped nominally, it was the lowest fourth quarter total in 7 years.
  • Price indicators up from same period last year year.
  • Number of sales declined from year ago levels restrained by limited inventory.
  • Luxury market prices rise but not at pace of overall market.
  • Mortgage underwriting remains “irrationally tight” but record low mortgage rates and improving employment continue to drive demand.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…In the final quarter of 2012, the Queens housing market saw a sharp year-over-year bump in prices, a modest slip in sales and listing inventory, shorter marketing times, and less negotiability between buyers and sellers. The historically tight mortgage underwriting standards continued to hold the impact of record low mortgage rates in check.

Both price indicators pressed above prior year levels. Median sales price was up 13.7% from the prior year quarter at $390,000, the highest level in nearly 4 years. Average sales price showed a similar result, rising 9.4% to $432,503 over the same period. All market quintiles generally saw gains in median sales price compared to the prior year period…

Our Queens data tables are now updated for 4Q12 and charts will be available soon.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Queens Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Queens Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]


[Tempering Sales] 4Q 2012 Brooklyn Report

January 21, 2013 | 10:13 pm | | Reports |

We recently published our report on the Brooklyn sales market for 4Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • Record low mortgage rates fueling demand but credit remains tight holding demand in check.
  • Lowest inventory total in four years.
  • Price indicators show sharp year over year gains.
  • Number of sales declined from year ago levels restrained by limited inventory.
  • Market share of new development at lowest level since credit crunch began as old pipeline of product has been nearly exhausted.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Brooklyn housing market saw a final quarter of 2012 characterized by unusually low inventory, which in turn limited the volume of both re-sale and new development activity despite the demand generated by record low mortgage rates. As a result, the price indicators showed a year-over-year jump across most market segments.

There were 4,685 listings at the end of the fourth quarter, the metric’s lowest total since we began tracking it in mid-2008. Listing inventory was 20.7% below prior year levels, resulting in a 9.7-month absorption rate, faster than the 11.4-month rate in the same period last year. Despite record low mortgage rates and a slowly improving economy, the number of sales fell 7.3% to 1,445 over the same period, as limited inventory and tight mortgage lending conditions continued to restrain demand…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 4Q 12 data. Charts with 4Q12 data appended will be online shortly.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Brooklyn Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Brooklyn Sales [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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[Cool Your Jets] 12-2012 Manhattan/Brooklyn Rental Report

January 21, 2013 | 9:59 pm | | Reports |

This report is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

MANHATTAN

  • The pace of rental price increases have slowed for 3rd consecutive month.
  • Falling mortgage rates are pulling more renters into the sales market.
  • Rents remain at high levels with pressure coming from low vacancy rate, tight credit and an improving economy.
  • Vacancy rate has fallen below year ago levels for 6th consecutive month.
  • New rentals up 20.5% from the prior year indicating continued tenant price resistance at time of lease renewal.
  • Luxury and Super-Luxury rental prices grew faster than overall market over the year.
  • Doorman prices up as non-doorman prices slipped.

BROOKLYN
[North, Northwest Regions]

  • Prices edged above year ago levels and remain elevated.
  • New rentals up 12.5% over last year’s levels as tenants continued to resist rising prices.
  • Days on market at third fast monthly rate in nearly 5 years.
  • Luxury market price trends were mixed.
  • 2-bedroom market had most overall improvement in price and activity.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

MANHATTAN For the third consecutive month, the year-over-year pace of median rental price growth eased. Median rental price increased 0.8% from the prior year period to $3,150. Year-over-year gains in this metric for the prior three months were 10.2%, 1.6% and 1.4%. Compared to the same period last year, average rental price was up 10% at $3,973, while rental price per square foot was down 4.5% to $49.88…

BROOKLYN Median rental price increased 7.6% from the same month last year to $2,637. This rate marked the fourth highest level over the past 5 years; the three highest levels were all recorded in 2012. Compared to the same period last year, average rental price edged 5.6% to $2,880, while average rental price per square foot jumped 16.7% to $36.01…

I’m really behind schedule in uploading content to the site due to the heavy year end appraisal volume we are digging out of…but I’ll get it done soon. You will be able to build your own custom data tables on the Manhattan rental market using quarterly data – our new monthly format will be available online shortly and we will be phasing in monthly charts to our rental chart gallery soon.




The Elliman Report: 12-2012 Manhattan Rentals [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 12-2012 Manhattan Rentals [Douglas Elliman]

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[Stronger Finish] 4Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Report

January 12, 2013 | 9:57 pm | | Reports |

We just published our rreport on the Westchester & Putnam County New York housing markets.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

  • Housing prices remain stable.
  • Sales up sharply as many anticipated higher taxes relating to the Fiscal Cliff in 2013.
  • Listing inventory continued to fall. Higher sales and tight credit ARE keeping inventory low.
  • Days on market edged higher as older inventory continued to be absorbed.
  • Luxury prices continued to outpace the overall market.

PUTNAM

  • Housing price indicators were mixed.
  • Sales slipped from the same period last year.
  • Listing inventory continued to trend lower.
  • Days on market edged higher as older inventory continued to be absorbed.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The fourth quarter 2012 Westchester housing market was characterized by general price stability, sharply rising sales activity, declining inventory and a faster overall market pace heading into 2013.

Median sales price saw a nominal 0.6% decline from prior year levels to $395,000. Average sales price increased 11.5% and average price per square foot rose 5.2% over the same period. The year-to-date results show nominal declines for all price indicators, including a 1.6% decline in median sales price. In the fourth quarter, the luxury market price indicators outpaced the overall market. Median sales price increased 21.6% from the prior year quarter to $2,150,000…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam market – now updated with 4Q 12 data. I‘ve added some charts for Westchester (Putnam coming) and will be adding to them in the future.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Douglas Elliman]


[International Story] 4Q 2012 Miami Sales Report

January 12, 2013 | 8:46 pm | | Reports |

We published our report on the Miami sales market for 4Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

  • SALES SURGE – Sales were up sharply from a year ago, the highest fourth quarter in at least 6 years.
  • FALLING INVENTORY – Listing inventory fell sharply. Low or negative equity holding back supply in addition to higher sales activity.
  • SMALLER DISTRESSED SALES SHARE – 40.2% market share of distressed sales (REO+Short Sales) lowest share in 3 years.
  • DEMAND DRIVERS – International buyers continued to play a key role in demand. Record low mortgage rates as well.
  • HIGH END MARKET RISING WITH ENTIRE MARKET – Luxury market price trends rising consistent with gains in overall market.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The market pace within Miami’s coastal communities continued to quicken in the fourth quarter. Distressed sale market share and listing inventory continued to fall, prices trended markedly higher, properties sold faster with less negotiability, and international buyers continued to play a key role in demand.

All price indicators posted large increases from year ago levels; median sales price jumped 27.3% to $210,000, average sales price surged 27.8% to $402,626, and average price per square foot increased 21.5% to $260. A portion of these substantial gains was attributable to the continued decline in market share of lower priced distressed sales, which fell to a 3-year low at 40.2%. However, the average sales price of non-distressed condo and single-family sales still jumped 16.6% above prior year levels…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Miami sales market – now updated with 4Q 12 data. I’ve also updated the charts on the Miami sales market.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Miami Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Miami Sales [Douglas Elliman]


[In Lieu of Paying More Taxes] 4Q 2012 Manhattan Sales Report

January 3, 2013 | 11:21 am | | Reports |

We published our report on Manhattan market sales for 4Q 2012 today.   I’ve been writing this series for Douglas Elliman since 1994 (I was 5 years old).

My Take

-Listing inventory fell to it’s lowest level in more than 12 years (since we began tracking it) to 4,749 apartments, may cause upward pressure on prices in 2013.
-A record fourth quarter with 2,598 sales – highest 4th quarter in at least 25 years we’ve tracked it, spurred by looming changes to federal tax laws, general economic improvement, elevated activity in an already recovering market.
-Price indicators were mixed, showing stability but with some evidence of growth by pending, size and quintile analysis.
-Days on market expanded as new supply shortage caused older inventory to be sold off.
-Luxury price trends out gained overall market yet luxury inventory did not fall as fast as many luxury sellers tried to “copycat” trophy sale success.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Manhattan housing market continued to be characterized by falling inventory across the re-sale and new development markets and an uptick in sales. Most of the price indicators in this report continue to range from demonstrating stability to modest growth. The market appears poised for some level of price appreciation in 2013, considering historically low mortgage rates that drive sales, coupled with a chronic shortage of active listings, which are at their lowest level in more than 12 years….

The charts and data tables are updated to include the fourth quarter of 2012.

Here is some of the press coverage for the report today.




The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 4Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]


[Knight Frank] Global Reports That Look Forward and Backward : Europe As Denominator

December 13, 2012 | 9:35 am | | Reports |


[click to open report]

Where we’ve been

Knight Frank’s Global House Price Index is published quarterly and tracks the performance of mainstream national housing markets around the world. They use Case Shiller results for the US market.

Europe at bottom:

With the Eurozone now in its second recession in three years buyer confidence is at an all-time low and it is no coincidence that all the bottom 12 rankings are occupied by European countries this quarter.

The top performers:

But it’s not all bad news. Six markets recorded double-digit annual price growth in the year to September; Brazil, Hong Kong, Turkey, Russia, Colombia and Austria.

Where we’re going


[click to open report]

I help provide their Manhattan and Miami insights and they liked the way I characterize the state of luxury housing as a “safe-haven” and the “new international currency.” Here are the top line observations in their Q4 12 Prime Global Forecast:

• In 2013, we expect prime residential prices across the 14 cities included in our forecast to rise by 2.5% on average, with Moscow, Miami and Dubai being the strongest performers.
• A sharp slowdown in the global economy is the highest risk for the world’s prime residential markets closely followed by government cooling measures.
• However, the current economic uncertainty is also considered a key driver of demand in prime cities as HNWIs seek the shelter of ‘safe-haven’ investments.
• Supply, or the lack of it, will be a key determinant of price performance in cities such as New York, Moscow and Miami in 2013.
• We envisage that government-imposed regulatory measures will keep a lid on price growth in Asia in 2013 but the west-east shift in the economic balance of power suggests more promising prospects in the medium term.



Q3 12 Global House Price Index [Knight Frank]
Q4 12 Prime Global Forecast [Knight Frank]

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