With so much discussion about the upper end of the market, I decided to look at the top 1 percent of Manhattan co-op, condo and townhouse closings as a scattergraph since the dawn of time (i.e. 2003, when the boom started to gather steam, nearly a decade ago). Each dot represents a closed sale at or above $10M. Here are a few observations:
About 970 sales since 2003 averaging 108 sales per year.
The over-reported $88M 15 CPW sale sticks out like a sore thumb (sold in 2011, closed in 2012) so I also prepared a chart that excludes it to provide better scale for analysis.
From 2003 sales increased at higher prices through 2007.
In the first half of 2008, arguably the peak of the Manhattan housing boom, the market experienced the highest density of sales, largely crammed into the first half of the year.
In the dark days of 2009 post-Lehman, there were a surprising number of sales, almost comparable to 2004-2005.
20010-2011 saw a noticeable uptick in activity, comparable to the period 2006-2007.
Hard to tell yet what 2012 has in store in this market segment with Wall Street comp down and the potential for the US Dollar to strengthen against the euro.
· Matrix [matrix.millersamuel.com]
· Three Cents Worth archive [Curbed]