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Posts Tagged ‘Absorption’

[Devoid of Sellers] 3Q 2012 Manhattan Sales Report

October 2, 2012 | 9:00 am | | Reports |

We published our report on Manhattan market sales for 3Q 2012 this morning.   I’ve been writing them for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

My Take

-Housing prices continue to remain stable – the slight YOY dip in prices was caused by a large increase in 1-bedroom sales pulling the overall numbers down (mortgage rates driving the entry-market)
-Closed sales slipped 5% from last year but pendings jumped 4.9% ahead of last summer – 2011 had more written business in first half of year while 2012 had more momentum going through summer.
-Inventory fell 24.3% from last year to lowest level in 7.5 years. Low equity keeping many sellers from listing (those sellers can’t become buyers because of tight credit), election year paralysis and concern about direction of economy, Europe, Federal Reserve’s QE3.
-Condo price trends outpacing co-op price trends likely due to foreign buyer demand.
-Luxury market prices slipping as inventory edging higher – however there was a jump in 3-bedroom sales.
-New development sales market share at 17.8%, consistent with past several years.
-Manhattan remains one of the best housing markets in the US: employment rising, tight inventory and strong international demand – despite tight credit conditions.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Manhattan housing market showed seasonally stable pricing and sales activity. Smaller apartments continued to gain market share as mortgage rates continued to fall and city employment levels rose. The sharply declining listing inventory reached a 7.5-year low, while the monthly absorption rate demonstrated a brisk market pace as it reached a 5-year low. All price indicators posted modest year-overyear declines, as 1-bedroom apartments gained 5% market share to represent 37.8% of all sales, edging out the 2-bedroom market as the largest market segment. Median sales price was $890,000, down 2.3% from $911,333 a year ago. Average sales price and average price per square foot slipped 1.4% and 2.4% from the prior year quarter to $1,444,463 and $1,103 respectively. Year-to-date, median sales price remained unchanged from a year ago at $850,000, while average price per square foot increased 0.6%, further reflecting price stability in the overall market…

Updated charts and data tables will be uploaded later today. UPDATE: The charts and data tables are updated.

Here’s the press coverage for the report today.




The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 3Q 2012 Manhattan Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

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[Manhattan Absorption] August 2012 – It’s A Lot Faster On The Down Low

September 24, 2012 | 3:35 pm | Charts |

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The “blue” line for average changes very little year to year but the scale of the chart does frequently.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

August 2011 v. August 2012

[click images to expand]

The market below $1M is now moving very quickly – low mortgage rates are causing entry-level apartments to be rapidly absorbed.

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this analysis somewhat understates the pace of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.

 


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel] Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2011 [Miller Samuel]

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[Three Cents Worth NY #210] Manhattan Housing Talks Like a Pirate

September 19, 2012 | 5:03 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m simply here to take measurements.

Read this week’s 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

…Out of respect for International Talk Like A Pirate Day I thought I’d comment on housing metrics that would provide seaworthy analogies to prepare us for the next round of Manhattan housing market reports (i.e. our 3Q 2012 market reports we’ll be publishing with Douglas Elliman) in less than two weeks when the quarter ends. For this edition of 3CW I matched up Manhattan co-op/condo absorption rates and the year-over-year change in median sales price of the last decade. Absorption covers sales and listing trends and prices cover, well, you know what they cover. For the purposes of my analysis I define absorption as the number of months it would take to sell all active inventory at the current pace of sales…

 

[click to read column]


Curbed NY : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed DC : Three Cents Worth Archive
Curbed Miami : Three Cents Worth Archive

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[Rotate!] Manhattan Housing Market Absorption by Price (3/09 to 8/12)

September 6, 2012 | 6:30 am | Charts |

My first rotating gif!

Geekcitement aside, I placed 42 months worth of charts into one graphic to show the ebb and flow of the market. The chart is based on the ongoing absorption releases here on Matrix. The charts reflect the number of months to sell all active listing inventory at the annualized pace of sales (closed) activity.

I deliberately did not make the GIF a loop so you can tell when it starts (3/09).

Refresh your browser to see it again.

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[Full Frontal Waterfront] 2Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale Report

July 31, 2012 | 9:01 pm | | Reports |

We published our inaugural report on the Fort Lauderdale, Florida sales market for 2Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Fort Lauderdale, Florida

-Overall and luxury price indicators for condo and single family properties saw double-digit increases from prior year.
-Condo and single family sales were below year ago levels but were both the 5th highest quarterly total in more than 6 years.
-Waterfront homes were the only segment to post a year over year increase in sales.
-Days on market fell from year ago levels for both condos, single family and luxury properties.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

CONDO/TOWNHOUSE Median sales price was up 21.2% to $209,000, from $172,440 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price and price per square foot showed similar double-digit gains over the same period. The number of sales declined 7.7% to 608 from 659 in the prior year quarter. With 1,035 listings at the end of the second quarter, the 5.1-month absorption rate was considered tight for the region…

SINGLE FAMILY Listing discount fell to 5.7% from 7.4% in the same period last year. Days on market was 113, 18 days faster than in the same period last year. There were 745 listings and as a result, the absorption rate was 5 months, considered fast relative to other markets in the region…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. We’ll be adding a chart library for this market area soon!




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Fort Lauderdale [Douglas Elliman]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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[More Sales] 2Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork Report

July 27, 2012 | 10:36 am | | Reports |

We published our report on the Hamptons & North Fork sales market for 2Q 2012.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Hamptons & North Fork

-Sales jumped above year ago levels reaching the second highest spring market total in 6 years.
-Median sales price slipped from year ago levels, although average sales price was at 3rd highest level since credit crunch began in 2008.
-Most sales over $5M since credit crunch began – tied with 4Q 2010.
-Listing inventory edged above year ago levels.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Hamptons and North Fork housing markets were characterized as having their most active spring markets in six years, but both with weaker price levels and modest upticks in listing inventory and marketing time. There were more sales in the second quarter spring market than there have been in any second quarter throughout the past six years. The second quarter total was 676 sales, 9.2% more than 619 sales in the prior year quarter. This total was sharply above the prior quarter result of 381 sales, an unusually light number, given the mild winter and early spring selling season, which suggests a timing issue at play. Listing inventory was 2,452, 5.3% above 2,329 in the same period last year. As a result, the monthly absorption rate was 10.9 months, faster than 11.3 months in the prior year quarter as well as the 12.9-month sixyear average…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. You can browse our chart library for the latest – updated for 2Q 2012.




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Hamptons & North Fork [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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[Stableborough] 2Q 2012 Brooklyn Report

July 19, 2012 | 8:45 am | | Reports |

We published our report on the Brooklyn sales market for 2Q 2012 this morning.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

Brooklyn

-Number of sales edged higher as inventory fell sharply.
-Monthly absorption rate (Inventory/sales) at fastest pace in 2 years.
-Luxury market (starts at $999k) outperforming the overall market.
-New dev market share has remained stable for two years.


-Mortgage underwriting still “irrationally tight” but mortgage rates continue to fall to record lows.
-Regional economy slowly improving.

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Brooklyn housing market could best be described as having stabilized prices and sales, largely due to falling inventory and a slowly improving regional economy. Unusually tight mortgage lending conditions have tempered further improvement. Median sales price was $477,108, nominally below $480,000 in the prior year quarter. The average sales price increased 2% to $585,777 from $574,387 over the same period…

You can build your own custom data tables on the market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. You can browse our chart library for the latest – updated for 2Q 2012.




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Brooklyn Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Brooklyn Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]
Market Chart Library [Miller Samuel]
Aggregated Custom Market Data Tables [Miller Samuel]

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[Manhattan Absorption] June 2012, Moving Faster, Strength Expanding

July 16, 2012 | 11:16 am | Charts |

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The “blue” line for average changes very little year to year but the scale of the chart does frequently.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

June 2011 v. June 2012

[click images to expand]

Thoughts on the year-over-year comparisons

  • Manhattan All price segments below $3M experienced noticeable increases in pace of absorption – the lower the price segment that faster the pace.
  • East Side Co-ops and condos being absorbed at a much faster pace than last year at this time.
  • West Side Nearly all market segments continue to see faster absorption with sub-$500k and $2M to $10M seeing significant improvement.
  • Downtown Sub-$2M now seeing absorption rates as low as 5 months, well the 9.5 month 10-year average.

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this analysis somewhat understates the pace of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.

 


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2011 [Miller Samuel]

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[Stable Burb] 2Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Report

July 12, 2012 | 4:43 pm | | Reports |

We published our report on the Westchester/Putnam market for 2Q 2012 this morning.   This is part of an evolving market report series I’ve been writing for Douglas Elliman since 1994.

Key Points

WESTCHESTER

  • Housing prices were stable, basically unchanged from this time last year. Median sales price was $459,000 in 2Q 12
  • Sales activity jumped, up 14.7% from last year to 1,815.
  • Listing inventory fell 11.7% to 7,064.
  • The combination of rising sales and falling inventory quickened the “pace” of the market as the monthly absorption rate fell to 11.7 months from 15.2
  • Luxury market saw stronger price trends than the stable overall market, median was up 6.6%.

PUTNAM

  • Housing prices softened – median down 6.6% to $293K
  • Sales jumped in response to falling rates.
  • Inventory fell 13.2%

Here’s an excerpt from the report:

…The Westchester housing market showed price stability, rising sales and falling inventory during the second quarter, as the regional economy continued to confront tight credit and a slowly improving economy. Median sales price was $459,000, essentially unchanged from $457,500 in the prior year quarter. Average sales price followed the same pattern. The average sales price was $645,208 in the second quarter, similar to $643,907 in the same period last year. Price per square foot, the least reliable of the three price indicators, reflected a 2.6% increase to $279 per square foot over the same period…

You can build your own custom data tables on the Westchester & Putnam market – now updated with 2Q 12 data. I’ll have the newly created chart section for Westchester & Putnam uploaded this evening.




The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Miller Samuel]
The Elliman Report: 2Q 2012 Westchester & Putnam Sales [Prudential Douglas Elliman]

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[Manhattan Absorption] May 2012, Faster Pace Than Last Year

June 18, 2012 | 1:43 pm | Charts |

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart is: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annual pace of sales activity. (The definition of absorption in my market report series reflects the quarterly pace – nearly the same)

I started this analysis in August 2009 so I am able to show side-by side year-over-year comparisons. The blue line showing the 10-year quarterly average travels up and down because of the change in scale caused by some of the significant volatility seen at the upper end of the market. The “blue” line for average changes very little year to year but the scale of the chart does frequently.

Side by side Manhattan regional comparison:

May 2011 v. May 2012

[click images to expand]

Thoughts on the year-over-year comparisons

  • Manhattan All price segments below $3M experienced noticeable increases in pace of absorption – the lower the price segment that faster the pace.
  • East Side Condo market continues to see faster pace.
  • West Side Virtually all markets below $10M continue to accelerate pace.
  • Downtown Below $3M moving faster, $5-9.9M

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this analysis somewhat understates the pace of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.

 


Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2012 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Market Absorption Charts 2011 [Miller Samuel]

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[Three Cents Worth NY #191] Manhattan Rentals Are Quicker Picker Upper

May 29, 2012 | 12:12 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capitol of the world. And I’m simply here to take measurements.

I was in such a hurry for Memorial Day weekend to come, I neglected to post this last week. Look for a new 3CW post later today.

Read last week’s 3CW post on Curbed New York:

I’m probably dating myself with the title reference to an old Bounty Paper Towel commercial tag line, but who cares, this is Curbed and they’ll absorb all spills. Since everyone seems to be talking about the strength of the rental market, I thought I’d take a look at the absorption rates of the sales and rental markets over the past 5 years. I could go back more than 10-years with the sales market but my rental listing data is currently only compiled back to 2007.


[click to expand]


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[NAR] Existing Home Sales Continue to Edge Higher +10% Y-O-Y

May 22, 2012 | 2:21 pm | |

NAR’s Existing Home Sales numbers continue to edge higher. In this chart I annualize the non-seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted results. Think there isn’t seasonality in housing sales?

Here’s a good summary by Peter Coy at Bloomberg Businessweek.

No doubt a big reason was the improvement in affordability. The interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has continued falling since the period covered by the NAR report, portending better times ahead. Freddie Mac (FMCC), the mortgage-buying giant, says the rate was 3.79 percent in the week ended May 17, the lowest since it began keeping records in 1971. The Realtors’s index of affordability hit a record high in the January-March quarter. It factors in sales prices of existing homes, mortgage rates, and household income, which is slowly strengthening as the labor market improves.

And here’s a trend on inventory and absorption (months supply). Inventory continues to slide (not seasonally adjusted).


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