Matrix Blog

Posts Tagged ‘Absorption’

[The Assessor] The Differences Between High and Low End Absorption

June 22, 2010 | 12:03 pm | |


[clip to open article]

In today’s WSJ there is a chart I made covering Manhattan absorption market wide by price segment – inspired by my monthly report series.

The article sort of suggests that condos are doing better than co-ops as a generalization, which isn’t quite correct or I am over analyzing the results. However, one thing is certain:

Absorption for lower-end condos and co-ops is being driven by conforming mortgage financing being more readily available than jumbo financing.

My takeaways from the chart are:

  • Co-ops are taking longer to absorb than condos above $3M (not considering “shadow inventory” of new development.
  • Co-op and condo absorption is generally on par with the 10 year 9.9 month average overall rate of absorption.
  • Co-ops edge out condos (faster) below $1.5M
  • Co-ops over $10M are significantly higher than condos but this segment is about 1% of all sales so the results are easily skewed.
  • Lower priced property generally absorbs faster.

Absorption has greatly improved from last summer yet there is still a distinction in performance between the upper and lower end of the market.


Tags:


[Manhattan Absorption] Up To $3M Has Reasonable Rate

June 3, 2010 | 10:00 am |

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart as: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annualized pace of sales activity.

The absorption rate continues to hover around the ten year average up to about $3m above which it expands at differing rates depending on the region.

May 2010



[click image to expand]

Manhattan Absorption Archive 2009 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Absorption Archive 2010 [Miller Samuel]

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so this anlaysis understates the rate of condo absorption. The Uptown (Northern Manhattan) data set is too thin for a reliable presentation.


Tags:


[Three Cents Worth #148] Manhattan Absorption Tall Tales

May 14, 2010 | 10:11 pm | | Charts |

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth on Curbed, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate.

Three Cents Worth: Manhattan Absorption Tall Tales

This week I looked at absorption of Manhattan apartments, considering all possible units as available to be sold (i.e., including shadow inventory). I looked at the period 4Q 08 to 1Q 2010 because I wanted to show conditions in the post-Lehman Manhattan housing market. I defined absorption as the number of months it would take to sell existing supply (including shadow inventory for new development) at the current pace of sales….


[Click to expand and read full post on Curbed]

Check out previous Three Cents Worth posts.


Tags: , , ,


[Manhattan Absorption] Reverting to the Mean

May 5, 2010 | 2:14 pm |

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart as: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annualized pace of sales activity.

The release of pent-up demand in late 2009 greatly improved the absorption picture for re-sale property in Manhattan which carried through the first quarter of 2010.

April 2010



[click image to expand]

Manhattan Absorption Archive 2009 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Absorption Archive 2010 [Miller Samuel]

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so it generally understates the rate of condo absorption. The data set is too thin for a reliable Uptown presentation.


Tags:


[Manhattan Absorption] Is Momentum Ground Up?

April 23, 2010 | 1:48 pm |

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart as: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annualized pace of sales activity.

The release of pent-up demand in late 2009 greatly improved the absorption picture for re-sale property in Manhattan which carried through the first quarter of 2010.

March 2010



[click image to expand]

Manhattan Absorption Archive 2009 [Miller Samuel]
Manhattan Absorption Archive 2010 [Miller Samuel]

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so it generally understates the rate of condo absorption. The data set is too thin for a reliable Uptown presentation.


Tags:


[Limping Into Better Times] 1Q 2010 Long Island Market Overview Available For Download

April 22, 2010 | 7:54 am | | Reports |


[click to view report]

The 1Q 2010 Long Island Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

For additional insight, view a series of charts we prepare outside of the report as well as general press coverage.

An excerpt

…After reaching a two-year high of 5,935 sales in the prior quarter, the number of sales fell 35.7% to 3,814 sales in the first quarter of 2010, which was 32.8% above the 2,872 sales in the same quarter last year. The rise in the number of sales over the past year resulted in a modest decline in listing inventory. There were 20,902 listings in the first quarter, down 8.9% from 22,942 listings in the prior year quarter, but 7.5% higher than 19,450 listings in the prior quarter. The uptick in listing inventory and decline in sales resulted in a rise in the monthly absorption rate— the number of months it would take to sell out existing inventory at the current pace of sales. The absorption rate was 16.4 months, down from 24 months in the prior year quarter, but higher than the 12.9 average monthly absorption rate for the past 5 years…

Download report 1Q 2010 Long Island Market Overview [Miller Samuel]
View Long Island charts [Miller Samuel]


Tags:


[Continuation] 1Q 2010 Brooklyn Market Overview Available For Download

April 15, 2010 | 8:39 am | | Reports |


[click to open report]

The 1Q 2010 Brooklyn Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 1Q 2010 data and a series of charts will be available shortly when I get my act together. The data section has been reconstructed – it wasn’t originally designed 8 years ago to handle the volume of data I have saddled it with and I am being told will be ready next week. I’ll announce it as a post as soon as it is ready. In addition. I’ll have a podcast uploaded shortly as well.

Press coverage can be found here.

Since the neighborhood data is too thin to build a reliable trend line, we have grouped neighborhoods by logical regions based on housing stock.

An excerpt

…The release of pent-up demand in the second half of 2009 continued into 2010 with the number of sales rising 56.9% to 1,861 sales from 1,186 sales in the prior year quarter. The number of sales in the first quarter was 11.1% below the prior quarter level of 2,093, much improved from the 35.9% quarter over quarter decline in number of sales in the prior year. The average quarter-over-quarter decline over the past 5 years is 5.8%. Listing inventory fell to 5,761, 4.7% below the 6,042 listings during the same period a year ago, but 5.6% higher than the 5,439 listings at the end of the prior quarter. The rise in number of sales and the decline in inventory over the year resulted in a significant improvement in the monthly absorption rateÑ the number if months it would take to sell all available listings at the current pace of sales. The absorption rate was 9.3 months, down from 15.3 months in the prior year quarter…

1Q 2010 Brooklyn Market Overview [Miller Samuel]


Tags:


[Manhattan Absorption] Bounty of Sales via Pent-up Demand Release

March 10, 2010 | 12:01 am |

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart as: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annualized pace of sales activity.

The release of pent-up demand in late 2009 greatly improved the absorption picture for re-sale property in Manhattan. Not much change, however, over the first two months of the year.

February 2010



[click image to expand]

Elevated sales activity in the second half of 2009 showed a greatly improved absorption rate for all market price strata. Even when I began to track absorption in this manner last August, the picture had already improved greatly. See below to compare to current.

August 2009



[click image to expand]

View 2009 and 2010 archives.

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so it generally understates the rate of condo absorption. The data set is too thin for a reliable Uptown presentation.


Tags:


[The PhoneBook] 2000-2009 Manhattan Market Report Available For Download

February 4, 2010 | 8:40 am | | Reports |


[click to open report]

The 2000-2009 Manhattan Market Report that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released today. (I have been light on posts and podcasts in January – releasing 9 market reports in a month may have something to do with it.)

I have always referred to this report “The Phonebook” for its 61 pages of data largess. This report is downloaded more than all other quarterly studies we produce, combined.

Dottie Herman, the President/CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman whose name adorns the report is a big believer in historical information as a companion to cutting edge data to provide a better perspective.

Approximately 92,000 co-op and condo sales transactions from more than 6,500 buildings over the last ten years were analyzed. Each of the 53 different market areas have been presented with data tables and charts as well as a summary matrix that compare 2009 to the prior year (2008) and prior decade (2000).

An excerpt

…There were 6,851 listings on the market at the end of 2009, 24.6% less than 9,081 listings in 2008, which was the highest level of inventory in the past decade. The 2009 inventory level was in line with the 6,860 average annual inventory level of the past decade. This resulted in a monthly absorption rate of 11.1 months, up from a rate of 10.6 months in 2008 and above the 9.2 monthly average over the past decade. The cause of inventory decline in the first half of the year was the trend of sellers removing their property from the market in hopes of re-listing when market conditions improve substantially. The decline in inventory in the second half of 2009 was attributable to the surge in sales activity simply working off the properties on the market…

Download the 2000-2009 Manhattan Market Report

Download other market reports prepared by Miller Samuel


Tags: ,


[Manhattan Absorption] Bookends of Price Range See Least Absorption

January 7, 2010 | 1:06 am |

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart as: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annualized pace of sales activity.


[click image to expand]

The absorption rate continues to improve from a bottom up, but now there seems to be some build up of studio inventory.

View archive

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so it generally understates the rate of condo absorption. The data set is to thin for a reliable Uptown presentation.


Tags:


[Manhattan Absorption] Price Threshold For Balanced Absorption Continues To Rise

December 1, 2009 | 11:35 am | Charts |

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart as: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annualized pace of sales activity.


[click image to expand]

The absorption rate continues to improve from a bottom up, approaching the 10-year 10.0 month average for all three market areas (the data set is too thin for a reliable trend for Uptown).

Observations

The East Side absorption rate slows considerably above $1.5M. Co-ops are considerably slower than condos above that threshold. Condos generally absorb faster than co-ops.

The West Side absorption rate has reduced in higher price segments, up to $3M. Co-ops generally absorb faster than condos below $3M but take much longer than condos above the threshold.

The Downtown market absorption rate has reduced in higher price segments, up to $3M. Co-ops and condos are consistent below the threshold but co-ops absorb considerably slower above the threshold.

View archive.

Note: This chart series does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so it understates condo absorption.


Tags:


[Manhattan Absorption] Price Threshold For Balanced Absorption Is Rising

November 17, 2009 | 6:38 pm | Charts |

Absorption defined for the purposes of this chart as: Number of months to sell all listing inventory at the annualized pace of sales activity.


[click image to expand]

It comes as no surprise by now that the lower price strata of the market is doing better than the upper end, primarily because of the divergence between jumbo and conforming mortgage underwriting requirements. Absorption has been better in the sub-million price strata than above $1M over the past year.

In other words, the surge in sales over the summer has increased the pace of absorption. The pace of sales increased relative to the amount of listings offered.

It appears that the trend is moving higher up in the price strata since absorption between $1M and $2M has improved in recent months. However, west side absorption for condo units has deteriorated on the west side with more new product entering the market than can be absorbed (especially sub-$500k).

I’ll update these charts monthly and have already created an archive. This chart does not include shadow inventory (properties ready for market but not yet listed for sale) so it understates condo absorption.


Tags:

Get Weekly Insights and Research

Housing Notes by Jonathan Miller

Receive Jonathan Miller's 'Housing Notes' and get regular market insights, the market report series for Douglas Elliman Real Estate as well as interviews, columns, blog posts and other content.

Follow Jonathan on Twitter

#Housing analyst, #realestate, #appraiser, podcaster/blogger, non-economist, Miller Samuel CEO, family man, maker of snow and lobster fisherman (order varies)
NYC CT Hamptons DC Miami LA Aspen
millersamuel.com/housing-notes
Joined October 2007