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Posts Tagged ‘Getting Graphic’

[Getting Graphic] Imput This: Rentals And Sales Trends Are Different

June 9, 2006 | 10:28 am |

Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related chart(s).

Source:NYT

Click here for full graphic [NYT]

In 1996, when the imputed rent replaced sales trends in the CPI calculation, the government provided evidence that this would have little impact on CPI. However, in Floyd Norris’ column this week What Happens if Inflation Is Overstated? [NYT], he shows that things have changed considerably since then.

  • Sales have doubled
  • Rents have increased by a third

I commented about this last February in the post At The Core Of Inflation, Housing Sales Are Merely Rentals.

There is the belief that inflation was understated because rentals were weaker than sales during the housing boom and quite possibly the Fed may have been quicker to raise rates to cool off the market. Now with the rental market expected to grow, inflation may be over stated.

Higher interest rates might weaken the economy, but could also help the dollar. Lower rates could hurt the dollar, but also strengthen the economy.

Flexibility may be essential. “If Bernanke commits categorically to a response to core price pressures,” said Robert J. Barbera, chief economist of ITG, “he could find himself raising rates because housing does worse because of the arithmetic of how that plays out in the C.P.I.”

Bernanke may find that making the Fed more transparent, may be easier said than done and Norris concludes that Mr. Bernanke may come to understand why Mr. Greenspan so rarely said anything clearly.


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Harvard: The State of the Nation’s Housing 2006

June 7, 2006 | 11:04 pm |

Every year I look forward to the release of the The State of the Nation’s Housing study by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard. Its a comprehensive macro look at our nation’s housing that is insightful and easy to read.

Download the report [pdf]

The report suggests that the current housing slowdown will be moderate but affordability problems over the next decade will continue to deteriorate.

Nevertheless, the housing sector continues to benefit from solid job and household growth, recovering rental markets, and strong home price appreciation. As long as these positive forces remain in place, the current slowdown should be moderate.

Over the longer term, household growth is expected to accelerate from about 12.6 million over the past ten years to 14.6 million over the next ten. When combined with projected income gains and a rising tide of wealth, strengthening demand should lift housing production and investment to new highs. But with the economy generating so many low-wage jobs and land use restrictions driving up housing costs, today’s widespread affordability problems will also intensify.

Here’s a sample of some of the wide variety of charts from the study:


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[Getting Graphic] Remodeling Equation: Value > Cost = Boom

May 19, 2006 | 12:01 am |

Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related images(s).

What remodeling bubble, you ask? Well, every year the Cost vs. Value Report by Remodeling Magazine lays out statistics on the investment return of kitchen and bathroom remodels, room additions and other projects in every major city in America.

Source:Remodeling Online

Click here to read the study

Bathrooms were the only category on a national basis to exceed 100%. Actually, I would have thought kitchens would have resulted in a higher value than bathrooms relative to cost. Its a larger room on average, occupying more space than a bathroom. It has more visual impact and is the most shared living area in the home.

I’d be interested in historical figures if they were available. As evidenced by the chart, the relationship of cost to value changes. For example, in New York, and I would expect in many metro areas, the cost of a renovation far exceeded its contribution to value during a weak economic period. In the 1990-1991 recession, we found that the ratio of cost to value was 2:1 but served to accelerate marketing time.


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[Getting Graphic] Home Purchase Purpose

May 19, 2006 | 12:01 am |

Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related chart(s).

Click here for the related article [KBD]

Whats kind of scary about the purchase breakdown is the number of investor units. 27.7% of all purchases is a lot of units. Whats even more of a concern is that there are markets where investor units are a non-factor, like New York, New York, so there are markets where the share is significantly higher.

I am less concerned about the stability of the vacation home market since thats more a function of changing demographics (aging baby boomers).


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[Getting Graphic] Further Evidence That Housing Has Shifted Gears

May 16, 2006 | 12:01 am | |

Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related chart(s).

Some Markets Start to Cool As Inventory Levels Rise; Low-Cost Cities See Uptick [WSJ]

Home prices were higher in many U.S. markets in the first quarter of 2006, but the pace of growth is cooling.

In its latest report of home prices in 149 metropolitan areas, the National Association of Realtors said the median price of a single-family home in the U.S. was $217,900 in the first quarter, up 10.3% when compared with the same quarter a year ago. That’s a smaller increase than in the fourth quarter, when the median price of a home was up about 13.6% year-over-year.

David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement that home prices are rising less rapidly because the inventory of homes available for sale is rising. “With the supply of homes picking up very nicely in many areas of the country, pressure is coming off of home prices.” Mr. Lereah also indicated that the trend is continuing into the current quarter, and that he expects price-appreciation will be “returning to normal rates of price growth in the single-digit range.”

Source:WSJ


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[Getting Graphic] Sweet 16 at 5%: The Fed Remains Consistent But Muddies The Water

May 11, 2006 | 8:53 am | |

Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related images(s).

Source:WSJ



The Bernanke Fed was true to form as the Federal Open Market Committe raised the federal funds rate, its key short-term interest rate another 25 basis points to hit 5%. As with prior Fed actions, the Wall Street Journal has an interesting analysis called Parsing The Fed where it analyzes the nuances of FedSpeak.

For the first time in 2 years, the Fed gave the impression it was nearing the end of its rate hike strategy but left itself the option to continue to do so at a later date as the information from economic unfolds [Polley].

I would think this posture will create further uncertainty for the bond market, which will continue to place upward pressure on fixed rates even after short term rates level off, should the Fed stop. This seemingly lack of clear articulation by the Fed does not help the housing market, which has already been dampened by rising mortgage rates.

Here is the actual release from the FOMC


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[Getting Graphic] Manhattan Moving imaGIFs

May 1, 2006 | 12:01 am |

Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related images(s).

A good friend of some relatives of mine in Ohio came to visit us for a few days during a sojourn to New York City. He quickly became a friend of ours too. When he returned home, he created some cool rotating gif’s of Manhattan and posted them on his site, [Seldom Heroic]. He gave me the a-ok to post this eye candy.





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[Getting Graphic] Getting Crude May Hurt Housing

April 24, 2006 | 12:01 am | |

Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related chart(s).

Click here for full graphic [WSJ]

Source:WSJ

Oil prices are getting many worried, largely because there doesn’t seem to be a limit on their increase these days, with China entering the race for oil consumption and the elimination of the controversial gasoline additive [WSJ] in favor of ethanol, there may be supply and logistical disruptions that send prices higher at the pump. This fuels (sorry) inflation, long term rates rise and/or the Fed continues to press rates upward. Housing suffers.


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[Getting Graphic] The Joy Of Heavy Lifting REDUX: Census Releases Real Population Trends

April 21, 2006 | 12:01 am | |

Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related chart(s).

In our post yesterday The Joy Of Heavy Lifting: U-Haul From The Closing, U-Haul’s PR department took a joy ride with their stats (but it was kinda fun while it lasted).

Some noticeable trends are the large exodus from New York (200,000+/Year from 2000-2004) but there was a population gain due to the increase in immigration [WCBS/AP]. The 1990’s exodus to other states from California and from the Northeast appears to have eased since 2000, but not in metropolitan New York [NYT], a Census Bureau analysis says.

Massachusetts was second on the list while there was a significant gain in Nevada, Arizona and Florida.

Click here for full graphic [BG]

Source: Boston Globe


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[Getting Graphic] Making OFHEO Numbers Pretty

April 18, 2006 | 12:01 am |

Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related chart(s).

Source: All charts Housedata.info


Housedata.info is a site that has converted the OFHEO Housing Price Index data for each state and key cities with three different charts: Actual numbers as well as an 8 quarter and 20 quarter moving averages, quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year and deviations from the moving average figures. I am not crazy about the black look of the charts, but its still a great resource.

Its a lot easier to see each market than the OFHEO tables [pdf] that are released every quarter. The next release (1st Quarter 2006) is slated for June 1.


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[Getting Graphic] Throwing U.S. A Yield Curve

April 13, 2006 | 10:07 am |

Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related chart(s).

Barry Ritholz’s Chart of the Week: Yield Curve, 2002 versus 2006 [Big Picture]

Source: StockCharts
  • 2002 — Steep curve with low short term yields
  • 2004 — Fed starts raising short-term rates
  • 2005 — Yield curve inverts briefly
  • 2006 — Yield curve flattens as long term rates begin to respond to short term rate increases amid inflation concerns

Its going to get interesting when and if the economy gets dragged down by lower activity and prices in the housing market. In theory, the fed could be forced to drop rates in 2007 if the economic reaction to a weakening housing market is harsh. There remains a lot of conjecture that an inverted yield curve leads to a Recession. However, at least to this point, that does not seem to be the case this go ’round.


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[Getting Graphic] A Crack in the Foundation

April 7, 2006 | 11:18 am |

Getting Graphic is a semi-sort-of-irregular collection of our favorite BIG real estate-related chart(s).

Source: Washington Post

Click here for full graphic

Here’s a great article by Neil Irwin on the concern that the housing market slow down could have much more of a far-reaching effecton the economy than it has in prior slowdowns, despite some signs that the economy is holding its own at the moment.

Is Reliance on Real Estate a Crack in the Foundation? [Washington Post]

Here’s a transcript of Irwin’s online discussion

The U.S. economy is more dependent on housing than it has been in a half-century, as the sector fuels consumer spending and has accounted for nearly three-quarters of the nation’s job growth in the past five years.

What makes the real estate boom of the past decade unusual is that its effects have reverberated far beyond closely related sectors such as construction, driving sales in places as varied as furniture stores and motorcycle showrooms, especially in the Washington area and others where home prices have soared particularly rapidly.


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