According to a consumer survey by the real estate advisor site [Think Glink] who asks the question:
Do real estate sellers and buyers believe there is a real estate bubble?
They “recently surveyed more than 4,000 consumers and found that of” the 475 respondents:
66.3% believe there is a real estate bubble.
58.7% of the 66.3% believe that bubble will burst within a year.
41.3% think the bubble will still be alive and well a year from now.
50%+ believe that a real estate bubble is a self-fulfilling prophecy: If you talk about it, it will come.
First of all, this survey seems like a very small sample size and very unscientific. Secondly, they seem to use the word “bubble” interchangeably as a way to describe the current state of the housing market as if it is a fact that we are in a bubble – the jury is still out on that one. In my opinion, the term “bubble” infers imminent doom and therefore by definition, the survey may have been biased in the way the questions were posed.
This story has been carried by a number of web sites and blogs. I’d characterize it as light and a fun read but not something I’d place great weight on. Anything with the word “bubble” gets people’s attention.
Tags: Ilyce Glink
If you haven't already, sign up for 'Housing Notes' to receive weekly insights and research.
Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) and Certified Relocation Professional (CRP) designations. He is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York and a member of Relocation Appraisers and Consultants, Inc.
You'll be able to choose from an array of robust housing metrics compiled using research developed during the preparation of our market report series. Expanded significantly from prior offerings, use this resource to build charts and custom data tables or leverage your own information for more powerful research and presentations.
In the meantime, here is a small sample of the aggregated data we will provide.
“Then there is Miller’s authority in residential appraisals.” –Reuters
“Jonathan Miller: One of the most famous appraisers in America today.” –Phil Crawford, 'Voice of Appraisal' Radio Show
“A web site 'worth visiting.'” –Realtor Online Magazine
“Jonathan Miller is the DJ Khaled of real estate.” –Stefanos Chen, New York Times
“Jonathan Miller: Best online real estate expert.” –Money Magazine
“Jonathan Miller, Go-To Appraiser. Appraising the state of real estate.” –Barry Ritholtz 'Masters in Business,' Bloomberg Radio
“Jonathan is considered the 'dean of appraising' in the industry.” –Donna Olshan, President, Olshan Realty Inc.
“Jonathan Miller, the most popular guy on the block when talking about real estate in New York.” –Tom Keene, Bloomberg Radio
“Jonathan Miller is well-known for taking the pulse of Manhattan real estate.” –PBS Nightly Business Report
“His quarterly reports on the New York City-area market is considered required reading among real estate professionals.” –Reuters
“Jonathan Miller: He's the guy with 'boots on the ground' when it comes to real estate.” –Tom Keene: Bloomberg TV, Surveillance
“Jonathan Miller, the demigod of New York real estate stats.” –New York Observer
“Somebody-explain-this-crazy-market-to-me guy Jonathan Miller.” –Curbed New York
“A Curbed reader goes all 'Jonathan Miller' on us.” –Curbed New York
“"Between the Bricks" Columnist gives a 2016 Data Brick to Jonathan Miller for keeping the industry honest.” –Lois Weiss, New York Post
“If New York real estate is a sport, one of its most prominent score keepers is Jonathan Miller.” –New York Daily News
“Jonathan Miller, an appraiser dubbed 'the Wikipedia of Manhattan real estate.'” –Barrons
“Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel is a NYC real estate "cultural icon."” –Katherine Clarke, New York Daily News
“Miller Samuel CEO Jonathan Miller holds the key to the luxury real estate market.” –Deirdre Bolton, Anchor, Fox Business
“Jonathan Miller: The man who knows.” –Real Estate Weekly
“Jonathan Miller delivers the unflinching and un-fluffy truth about an industry he knows inside out.” –Teri Rogers, Brick Underground
“Check out Superstar Appraiser Jonathan Miller’s blog Matrix for the latest in depth information on NYC housing.” –Urban Digs
“Market Analyst Jonathan Miller: Thank the Flying Spaghetti Monster he's on our side.” –Curbed Miami
“Jonathan Miller is one of the icons of the real estate industry.” –Real Estate Board of New York
“It’s tough to find the good guys..Fortunately we found one. His name is Jonathan Miller.” –Glenn Beck, CNN
“Jonathan Miller is an incredible real estate analyst, a true Rockstar on NYC metro luxury markets.” –Ivy Zelman, CEO, Principal, Zelman & Associates
“Jonathan Miller, owner of New York City’s Miller Samuel and one of the nation’s most prominent appraisers” –Money Magazine
“Jonathan Miller is 'one of the most important people in real estate.'” –Elizabeth Ann Stribling-Kivlan, President, Stribling & Associates
“The oracle of New York City real estate: Jonathan Miller.” –Amir Korangy, Publisher, The Real Deal
“Jonathan...understands how to take numbers and explain them to people in a way that makes sense.” –Dottie Herman, President and CEO, Douglas Elliman
“Our man Jonathan Miller drops the truth bomb.” –Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture Blog
“His market reports are to the Manhattan housing market what those brackets are to the NCAA Tournament.” –New York Observer
“Jonathan Miller: One of the top 25 most influential U.S. real estate bloggers.” –Inman News
“Miller is the best real estate blogger out there.” –Bankrate
“Jonathan Miller, President of Miller Samuel and real-estate savant.” –Curbed Miami
“In this ever changing NYC market, Jonathan’s reports give me an accurate snapshot at any given time.” –John Gomes, The Eklund Gomes Team / Douglas Elliman Real Estate
“Jonathan is a legend, one of the most quoted appraisers and experts in the industry.” –Dottie Herman, President and CEO, Douglas Elliman
“Jonathan Miller...Manhattan’s most revered independent appraisers of residential property.” –Daily Telegraph (UK)
“In the real estate world, Jonathan Miller is where street-smart meets book-smart.” –Jed Kolko, Chief Economist, Trulia
“Miller is arguably the most influential voice in residential property valuation markets today.” –Altos Research
“Should we have seen this coming?...I spoke to appraiser Jonathan Miller 3 years ago.” –Jane Wells, CNBC
“If market guru Jonathan Miller said it, it must be true.” –Stuart Elliott, Editor-In-Chief, The Real Deal
“Jonathan Miller is 'a complete pro, a shining star in the real estate industry.'” –Donna Olshan, President, Olshan Realty Inc.
“Jonathan Miller: One of the best finance people on Twitter.” –Business Insider
“Jonathan Miller: the true God of real estate data.” –Fredrik Eklund, The Eklund Gomes Team / Bravo’s MDLNY
“Jonathan Miller, the appraiser who is the savviest observer of the local residential market.” –Crain’s New York Business
“Our sherpa in the land of broker euphemism for the current state of the housing market.” –New York Observer
“Jonathan Miller...one of the nation’s most prominent appraisers.” –Money Magazine
“A combination of Godzilla, King Kong, and Hurricane Katrina all wrapped up in one as he wreaked havoc on the housing market.” –New York Sun
“Miller’s more than 20 years of real estate experience comes out in this no-nonsense blog.” –Seeking Alpha
“When it comes to markets trends, nobody knows the multiple NYC real estate markets better than Jonathan Miller.” –John L. Heithaus, CSO, Buyside
“Jonathan Miller—the data whisperer” –Brick Underground
“Jonathan Miller is the most trusted (and quoted) man in New York real estate.” –New York Observer
“Expert Appraiser Jonathan Miller: New York City’s Real Estate Data Wizard” –Epoch Times
“New York real estate maven Jonathan Miller.” –Slate
“Jonathan Miller’s blog Matrix. Completely Keanu Reeves-free real estate economics, not for beginners.” –Curbed San Francisco
“Jonathan Miller delivers real estate news in language even a blogger can understand.” –Curbed DC
“Matrix: One of the top five U.S. real estate blogs.” –Inman News
“Renowned appraiser and [Matrix] real estate blogger, Miller is a statistical wizard. Can dodge bullets in slow-mo.” –Real Estate Tomato
“Jonathan Miller, the go-to expert on all residential real estate figures.” –Crain’s New York Business
“His prescient 2012 declaration that “luxury real estate is the new global currency” was repeated as gospel...” –New York Post
“Jonathan Miller is a master of his craft...we are lucky to have him as an advocate for appraisers.” –Phil Crawford, ‘Voice of Appraisal’ Radio Show
“JM makes real estate stats talk in language that normal people understand.” –Teri Rogers, Brick Underground
“Why is Jonathan Miller’s Matrix required reading? …He grabs you right from the start.” –New York Times
'Three Cents Worth' column 3CW ('05-'16)
When Curbed was acquired by Vox, my eleven years of 3CW chart art and column links were broken on Curbed NY, Curbed DC, Curbed Miami, Curbed Hamptons, Curbed LA, and Curbed Ski.
Many of my 3CW charts can be found here:
Curbed 3CW Full Chart Archive
This post previously appeared in the August 14, 2020 edition of Housing Notes. I’ve been writing these weekly summaries on housing topics for more than five years. To subscribe for free, you can sign up here. Then you can look… Read More