Matrix Blog

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

A lot of time and energy has been spent writing about one of the biggest challenges to the New York City housing market in recent years: affordability. One of the primary observations of the purchase market has been the lower number of first time buyers, both locally and nationally. Tight credit, slow household formation, and a creaky economy have been a root cause of keeping their participation muted, but it’s also the disproportionately higher price growth over the long term for smaller apartments. Here’s my attempt to illustrate this trend, using data from the last 25 years…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Three Cents Worth: Smaller Manhattan Apartments Keep Getting More Expensive [Curbed]

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Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed NY, Listing Inventory, entry-level, trade up

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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

Now that I am fully recovered from Micro Week, I thought I would think a little bigger and present the Manhattan inventory picture by comparing new development and re-sales. I’ve charted it from the pre-Lehman high (PLH for those in the know) through the end of 2014 in two graphs. One shows the year-over-year change, and the other tracks inventory by units to help tell the whole story. Inventory was in a state of free fall for both types from 2009 through 2013, but in 2014 the picture clearly changed…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Three Cents Worth: New York’s Building Boom Doesn’t Mean More Units For Sale [Curbed]

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Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed NY, Listing Inventory

Comments Off on [Three Cents Worth #279 NY] New York’s Building Boom Doesn’t Mean More Units For Sale

Read my latest Bloomberg View column Want a New House? Good Luck.

Here’s an excerpt…

Much of the analysis of the housing market focuses on sales volume and price trends. These are important metrics, of course, but they really don’t tell you much about market fundamentals because they are, to a great extent, derivative…

[read more]

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Tags: Listing Inventory, credit crunch, NAR, National Association of Realtors

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Read my latest Bloomberg View column The Bidding Wars Are Back.

Hard to believe this is happening again…

Here’s an excerpt…

A relic from the days of the housing boom is making a comeback. The share of sales that feature bidding wars is up. According to the National Association of Realtors, 33 percent of all sales were at or above the asking price, a strong indication that more than one bidder was involved in a transaction…

[read more]

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Tags: Listing Inventory, bidding wars, NAR, National Association of Realtors

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The comparison of housing market statistics against last year’s results produced misdirection in our understanding of it’s current state. Although a year-over-year comparison gets rid of seasonality, the results are at the mercy of how normal the prior year was…

The slowdown in the U.S. housing market has caused much hand-wringing. But keep this in mind: robust housing sales and price gains in 2013 were the anomaly and at odds with tepid economic fundamentals such as income, employment and credit. It’s the year-over-year comparisons that make things look worse than they are.

Read my latest Bloomberg View column
Understanding Housing’s Dog Days.
Please join the conversation over at Bloomberg View.

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Tags: Existing Home Sales, Listing Inventory, Pending Home Sale Index, median sales price, S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, NAR, National Association of Realtors

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Yes, inventory is rising off the crazy lows of the past 2 years, but supply is still, well, low.

Tags: Listing Inventory, Supply

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Manhattan listing inventory seems to have found a bottom after 4 years of decline…

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Manhattan Co-op/Condo Market Charts [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Listing Inventory

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No meaningful rise in inventory in the last 3 months overall supply appears to be leveling off per the recently released 1Q14 Manhattan sales report we authored for Douglas Elliman.

[click to expand]

Manhattan Co-op/Condo Market Charts [Miller Samuel]

Tags: Listing Inventory

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It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

It’s that time of year when sellers begin to introduce listing inventory to the “Spring Market”—when sales volume and upward price pressure are generally at their annual peak. I started working on a chart after someone mentioned they noticed a lot of new townhouses being added to inventory. Manhattan townhouse inventory has been rising since the beginning of 2014, showing a similar pattern to co-ops and condos. From the end of December 2013 to end of February 2014, townhouse listing inventory is up 12.8 percent, while co-op listings are up 11.1 percent and condos are up 20.2 percent. To provide some context for these numbers, I expanded the chart to include a 14-year monthly series breaking out co-ops and condos in addition to townhouses…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Manhattan Inventory Keeps On Rising [Curbed]

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Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed NY, Listing Inventory, 3CW

Comments Off on [Three Cents Worth #262 NY] Manhattan Inventory Keeps On Rising

It’s time to share my Three Cents Worth (3CW) on Curbed NY, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate in the capital of the world…and I’m here to take measurements.

Check out my 3CW column on @CurbedNY:

After an insanely chaotic and active 2013, it’s probably time to think about how 2014 is shaping up inventory-wise. At the end of last year, I was of the opinion that listing inventory was at or near a bottom and we would see some increase in supply but not nearly enough to match demand. And so far that has been the story. In this week’s column, I took a look at the first eight weeks of each year going back to 2009. Inventory always rises at the beginning of the year as sellers anticipate the spring market and skip over the December doldrums. I’d go back further in time, but I only began tracking inventory on a weekly basis in addition to monthly right after Lehman collapsed (I had more time on my hands). This analysis looks at overall Manhattan inventory at all price points—clearly there are nuances not reflected, i.e. luxury listings at historical averages while the remainder at chronic lows, so relax…

[click to expand chart]

My latest Three Cents Worth column on Curbed: Inventory Rising At Fastest Pace in 4 Years [Curbed]

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Tags: Three Cents Worth, Curbed NY, Listing Inventory, 3CW

Comments Off on [Three Cents Worth #261 NY] Inventory Rising At Fastest Pace in 4 Years

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I took a look at the trend in Manhattan’s listing inventory on a weekly basis since the beginning of 2009 and matched it against the market share of inventory for each of the four regions. It looks like the West Side (yellow line) was the only region to consistently lose market share over the past several years.

Since overall inventory has been falling during this period, this suggests that the West Side is tighter than the other regions but the absorption rate is about the same as the other regions.

Why?

Tags: Listing Inventory, Absorption, Market Share

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I’m not quite ready to use the word “haunted” in my housing language, but I had a nice chat with Brian Sullivan and Mandy Drury of CNBC TV’s ‘Street Signs’ – 30 Rock is always quick walk from my office to do the remote. Although my firm’s name was announced backwards on air (It’s really “Miller Samuel” I swear), I think my logic was forward (sorry).

Fun. Plus Mandy gives The Real Deal Magazine a shout out.

Tags: Case-Shiller, Listing Inventory, CNBC, Credit, Television, Mortgage

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