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Posts Tagged ‘Radio’

[Public] Tonight’s Observer Living Real Estate/Tomorrow AM Bloomberg Surveillance

May 14, 2009 | 3:05 pm | | Public |

Fun tonight!

I hear that 1,000+ people are registered to attend the Observer Living event (although I think the room where we are speaking is half that size).

8:00 PM – Panel #3: State of the Residential Market
Moderated by: Tom Acitelli, Location Editor, The New York Observer

Featuring:

  • Ivanka Trump, EVP, The Trump Organization;
  • Dottie Herman, President/CEO Prudential Douglas Elliman;
  • Pam Liebman, CEO/President, Corcoran;
  • Jonathan Miller, CEO/President, Miller Samuel

Topics:

  • Pricing: The $1.8 Million Question
  • Refinancing
  • New Condos vs. Condos vs. Co-ops
  • State o’ Things: Misconceptions and Perceptions
  • Where to Buy in New York

Tomorrow morning at 7am on Bloomberg Radio am 1130 – I’ll be the first guest on Bloomberg Surveillence with Tom Keane and Ken Prewitt to kick off a show on the housing market. I listen to the show via podcast nearly every day – always interesting.


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[Radio Active] WOR AM 710 Eye of Real Estate Radio Talk Show

April 20, 2009 | 2:00 pm | | Public |

Last Saturday we launched our new radio show on WOR 710 called Eye on Real Estate which is a 2-hour talk radio format that airs live on Saturdays from 10am to Noon.

The show is co-hosted by Dottie Herman, Jeff Appel and myself. Dottie brings brokerage experience, Jeff brings mortgage experience and I bring valuation experience to the table. None of us had hosted a talk radio show before but all of us have done a lot of public speaking together on various housing issues so on paper it seemed like a good fit. I think it was.

WOR came up with the show name and their management staff is unbelievably well organized and professional. They made it easy. Their audience is reportedly in excess of 1M listeners which is pretty exciting. We’re camped out for two hours in a studio with boom mikes, guests, call in questions, an active chat room during the broadcast, a control room and all the other radio trimmings.

I think our biggest concern going into this was that no one would call in since we were just getting started. However, after the first commercial break we were all estatic as the phones lit up like Christmas Trees. Fun.

If you can’t get to a radio from 10am to 12 noon on Saturdays, just subscribe to the podcast – it is uploaded to the web a few hours after the show airs.

The show’s web site: www.wor710.com/realestate

And subscribe to the podcast


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[The Housing Helix Podcast] Panic, Confidence and Roving Gangs of Golfers

April 20, 2009 | 12:57 pm | Podcasts |

This week I talk about roving gangs of grown men carrying golf clubs (on Wall Street). Well, not really. I dabble on social networking, panic, TARP and higher mortgage costs. Plus the new new development marketing pitch and my worry about the Fall market (no pun intended).

And our new radio talk show on WOR! I was walking down an empty Wall Street financial district on Saturday morning only to see roving gangs of men with golf bags…

Check out the The Housing Helix Podcast – this week’s edition is:

Panic, Confidence and Roving Gangs of Golfers

You can subscribe in iTunes or simply listen to the podcast on my new blog The Housing Helix. Don’t forget to share your suggestions and comments there.


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[In The Media] Bloomberg Surveillance 4-6-09

April 6, 2009 | 11:10 pm | | Public |

This morning I had the honor of appearing with Ken Prewitt and Tom Keene on the Bloomberg Surveillance radio program. I listen to their show regularly via podcast so I eagerly accepted their invitation to appear.

Here’s this morning’s interview [mp3]. “Miller Says NYC Housing Prices Down 25% From September 2008” – a state of New York housing interview for a national audience. It’s not painful to listen to – I promise.

When I got to the studio, Tom and I began talking about his entré into the world of Twitter and the show’s Facebook fan page. He plugged my own Twitter page to his audience and my new podcast – The Housing Helix. Nice!

My friend Rudy, Social Media Guru (and Maven) at Trulia, who is a big fan of the Bloomberg show, blogged about my interview and used Twitter to interact with the show. Thanks Rudy!

Fun!




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[When Brooklyn Was The World] 4Q 2008 Brooklyn Market Overview Available For Download

January 14, 2009 | 10:08 pm | | Radio |

The 4Q 2008 Brooklyn Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was just released.

The President and CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, is a big believer in publishing market data to create more transparency for consumers in the market her firm serves – Manhattan to Montauk.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

Customized tables for the 4Q 2008 Brooklyn data and a series of updated charts are available on our corporate site.

A report excerpt

…The median sales price was $490,000, down 7.5% from the prior year quarter result of $530,000 and down 3.9% from the prior quarter result of $510,000. The year over year change in quarter median sales price has declined for 5 consecutive quarters beginning in the fourth quarter of 2007 when the decline was 0.9%. Subsequent quarters resulted in declines in this metric of 1%, 1.9%, 5.6% and 7.5%. In addition, this is the first time the indicator fell below $500,000 since the first quarter of 2006 when the median sales price was $499,500. Average sales price for the quarter was $559,338, down 5.2% from the prior year quarter average sales price of $590,169 and down 2.8% from $575,287 in the prior quarter. Brooklyn showed declines in median sales price more than a year ahead of Manhattan…

The media coverage of the report is available here as they were obtained (in no particular order). In addition, the headlines and respective links to articles listed below are a fun way to see how the media interprets the report content since every outlet was working off the same information.

Print/Web

Brooklyn Apartment, Home Prices Drop 7.5% as Recession Hits [Bloomberg]
Brooklyn Housing Boom: Dude, It’s So Over [New York Observer]
Q4 Brooklyn Reports Show Bloodletting, Except Brownstones [Curbed]
Brooklyn housing market still suffering [Crains]
Brooklyn apartment sales prices fall 7.5 pct -report [Reuters]
Brooklyn Real Estate Begins to Collapse, Too [Gothamist]
Brooklyn apartment sales prices fall 7.5 pct -report [Forbes]
Brooklyn Real-estate Market Reports: More Sobering News [New York Mag]
Elliman: Condos Down, Co-ops Flat, Brownstones Up in 4Q [Brownstoner]
Brownstone Brooklyn prices unscathed in fourth quarter [The Real Deal]
Brooklyn Housing Market Hit [WNYC]
Experts: Real-estate boom about to go bust [The Brooklyn Paper]

Radio

4Q 08 Brooklyn Market recap [WNYC Radio]
Brooklyn Housing Market in 4q 2008 [Bloomberg Radio]


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[Quadrillions In Indebtedness] 4Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview Available For Download

January 8, 2009 | 2:25 am | | Public |

The 4Q 2008 Manhattan Market Overview that I author for Prudential Douglas Elliman was released on Tuesday.

Other reports we prepare can be found here.

The 4Q 2008 data and a series of updated charts are also available.

All in all, well over 100 media hits covering the report (that we know about, but who’s counting) without a formal press release. Apparently there is interest in the Manhattan housing market.

An excerpt

…At the close of the prior quarter, there was significant turmoil in the financial markets and unprecedented intervention by federal government agencies. The bailout of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and insurance giant AIG, the investor run on the money market Reserve Primary Fund and the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, marked a significant change in the Manhattan housing market as well as the US housing market. The fourth quarter was characterized by a sharp decline in contract activity and a downward correction in contract price levels. Sales contract activity showed evidence of a decline in activity of 40% to 75% compared to the same period last year. Contract price levels showed an average decline of 20% from August 2008. As a result of the 45-60 day lag between contract and closing date, a decline is anticipated in both the number of sales and closing price levels in the first quarter of 2009…

In 2005, I began posting the links of the coverage of each report to see how each media outlet reports the market using the exact same data. I find it to be an interesting way to look at how this information is interpreted and presented.

The media coverage of the report was provided here as they were released (in no particular order). The headlines selected below provide an interesting media perspective of the report contents since every outlet was working off the same information. I didn’t include all the wire stories from AP, Bloomberg or Reuters.

Print/Web

Television/Radio


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[Below 1%] Turning Japanese, I Really Think So

December 5, 2008 | 1:53 am | | Radio |

Not much wiggle room left for the Fed, but always time for New Wave “turning Japanese” nostalgia.

I keep thinking about the 0% discount rate set by the Bank of Japan since the mid-1990s and how that hasn’t worked. The Bank of England’s rate was dropped to 2%, the lowest since 1951.

Referring to Great Britain, but the same concept applies to the US economy:

Like Japan, the recession has shown government spending to be way out of kilter with the size of the post-bubble economy, and our budget deficits are set to easily reach those of Japan at its peak.

In Barrons:

Are U.S. Markets Turning Japanese?
It would seem so as yields plunge well below 3%. Think of it as the 1970s in reverse.

BABY BOOMERS, MORE THAN ANY OTHER GENERATION, seem stuck in their youths. Think of how the tastes of so many of their numbers remain ossified in the 1960s and 1970s, from Classic Rock on the radio to recreations of the autos of their youth, such as the VW Beetle, the Mustang and the Mini.

So, too, have their expectations about the economy. Prices only go one way — up — whether for the stuff they buy every day (except for computers and the other electronic accoutrements), their assets such as stocks or houses, or the pay for their services. They can no more conceive another kind of world than one without cell phones. And any departure must be an aberration, surely short-lived and certain to revert to the norm they’d known.

In other words, finance, as we know it, is undergoing massive change and the products we end up with are not going to be the same as we had a few years ago when the market was always going up.

Mortgage rates are fallng and mortgage applications (not necessarily successful applications) have just tripled and the US Treasury is talking about pushing rates as low as 4.5%. Although it doesn’t address jumbo mortgages, it is a first sign of progress, but by no means does it solve a whole lot.

Some say that with the nearly 8 trillion in exposure we taxpayers have through guaranties and investment, rates will rise with the flood of paper issued to pay for all this. I’m not sure. If the economy is lackluster at best for the next 2-3 years, I have a hard time seeing rates rising with the lack of demand in the near term.



Aside: Donald Trump is complaining his new Chicago condominium project is too expensive.

Yet another aside: This is your child’s brain on a Sony HD 52 inch Flat Screen with surround sound.

Big 3 + UAW aside: Combined common stock worth $3B, so lets give them $34B To date they have: fought emissions restrictions, fuel economy, safety features, make poor quality cars, and paid 12,000 people to not work. I went to school in Michigan and, despite obvious sympathy for hard working people in this situation, I have a hard time seeing how things are going to change in any way whatsoever. I’ll bet they don’t go on the same extravagant trips that AIG took if this goes through now that they have driven their own hybrids.


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[Bonus Thinking] All Children Are Above Average

November 10, 2008 | 12:43 pm | | Radio |

A survey found that despite all the gloomy economic news, 1/3 of Wall Street think their compensation will exceed last year’s levels.

If people think that, it’s a combination of human nature and the Lake Wobegon effect,’ he said — a reference to the mythical town in Garrison Keillor’s “Prairie Home Companion,” where “all children are above average.”

Don’t forget that “all the women are strong and all the men are good looking.” (I am long time podcast devotee of Lake Wobegon.)

One of the key reasons that the New York City metro area was one of the last residential housing markets to be impacted by the housing market slow down was the financial might – that is Wall Street bonus compensation. Last year bonuses accounted for just under 50% of total wages paid out in the financial services sector. It’s a long time annual economic ritual in New York.

It’s going to get painful for many in NYC over the next few years. I have many friends on the Street who work hard and make a decent living, but have or will lose their job as a result of a sector of Wall Street that went haywire. It’s simplistic reasoning to lump all segments of Wall Street all together. However, we do like to do that, especially when pointing fingers. Lower bonus compensation will impact the housing market in the New York region over the next few years with less income making it’s way toward mortgage payments.

Bonuses, which soared to record heights in recent years, could drop by 20 to 35 percent across the industry, according to a private study to be released on Thursday. Bonuses for top executives could plunge by 70 percent.

If 50% of your total compensation drops 50% or more, that’s a major decline in spending power. It’s very easy to be generic about all of this. The message given out is: Wall Street is BAD and all Main Street is GOOD. Yet, they are not mutually exclusive.

Is some of the logic for compensation crazy? You bet (no pun intended).

Should New York Attorney General Cuomo go after financial abuse and fraud? You bet. Of course it furthers the notion that bonus compensation is somehow criminal so he needs to walk the path very carefully. Judging by how Cuomo handled appraisers’ role in the mortgage crisis, I suspect he will do it right.

Somehow along the way, the word “bonus” has become another word for “greed”. Sure, there are upper bracket wage earners who make mind boggling compensation. But that is not the masses.

Main Street was pitted against Wall Street as an election theme (just like small town America was presented as the ‘Real America’).

Greg David, editor of Crains New York writes in his post “In defense of Wall Street Bonuses” He makes the case that:

The mayor gets 9% of his revenue from Wall Street, and the governor relies on it for 20%. Bonuses are key to spending on education, health care and police.

One of Greg’s students at the CUNY Graduate School of Journalism gives a more ground level perspective:

So, every time I hear about Wall Street cutting jobs or cutting salaries, all I think of is Eddie. A 25-year-old guy who works his tail off about 50 hours a week–and even more since the financial crisis made its landfall.


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[Mark To Market] To Buy A Fat Pig

October 2, 2008 | 12:29 am | | Radio |

Dan Gross over at Newsweek/Slate makes a great case for the argument that the bailout is a lot like a hedge fund.

It’s massively leveraged, It’s buying distressed assets, It’s taking equity stakes.

Mother Goose probably had no idea that she was to be in the conversation of hedge funds, equity investors investment banks and commercial banks.

To market, to market, to buy a fat pig,
Home again, home again, dancing a jig;…

Ok, ok so I tweaked the wording a bit, but the whining associated with the mark to market pricing concept of mortgage backed securities comes to mind. Apparently now accountants are to blame for the credit crunch because of Statement No. 157: Fair Value Measurements.

Mark to market explained: In accounting, mark to market is the act of assigning a value to a position held in a financial instrument based on the current market price for the instrument or similar instruments.

Much like market value estimates of properties derived from a typical residential mortgage appraisal, the state of the market at the present time frames the value of the asset. But what if there is no value because there is no market? We had this situation come up in Manhattan just after 9/11 because there were no sales. How do you estimate market value if there is no activity? I have long held that there is no market at that moment in time and therefore a value estimate is moot.

One of the biggest issues and the driver for the bailout is to be able to move the toxic mortgage junk off the balance sheets of lenders so they will not have the same capitalization requirements, which will free up capital to re-enter the markets to provide more mortgage money to homeowners.

Well the US Senate tried again and succeeded in passing the bailout wednesday, which was described as having more “lard” added to it (ahem… pork). Say what you want about Senator Dodd and his poor judgement in accepting favorable mortgage rates from Countrywide, he sounded pretty sharp even with the obligatory political posturing in this interview with IMUS just before first bailout bill vote.

And nearly every politician is fired up about mark to market in Washington and reversing the 50 year trend toward fair value accounting.

the big complaint at the moment is that markets for some mortgage-related securities have so totally broken down that marking them to market dramatically understates their value and makes banks’ finances look much shakier than they really are.

In Justin Fox’s Curious Capitalist blog over at Time he concludes in his Suspending mark-to-market is for zombies.

investors and regulators and reporters and corporate executives need to learn not to take any financial reporting numbers, whether marked-to-market or not, at face value. The health of a bank or any corporation can never be adequately measured by a single bottom-line number. Understanding the assumptions and uncertainties inherent in accounting numbers is crucial to understanding how to use them.

Think of it as a balance sheet with lipstick.


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[Olympic Matrix] Landing A Triple Summer Flip

August 18, 2008 | 12:01 am | Radio |

It’s been more than a week and I must say I am hooked watching the Olympics. I diligently watched them during my vacation (which included riding dune buggies along Lake Michigan) so I am a little woozy.

Speaking of woozy, I was glad to see President Bush placed clean boating on par with the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.

And better yet…

Matrix is 3 years old
Today it occurred to me that it has been 3 years this month (actually since August 1, 2005) since I began to write here. My first post was about appraisal pressure and my radio interview on National Public Radio, including sound effects. In speaking about this issue in the public domain back then, I felt like I was talking to a wall – not many understood or cared.

Matrix enabled me get the word out from my little corner of the world.

1658 posts later, it remains a labor of love, content subject to my moods and time. I have always seen it as thinking out loud and appreciate the public and private insights from those who read it. More to come. A lot of exciting things on my agenda this year.

…thanks for reading.


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[Sounding Bored] Hiding Behind USPAP To Avoid Getting Sick

July 20, 2008 | 10:03 pm | | Columns |

Sounding Bored is my semi-regular column on the state of the appraisal profession. Righteous USPAP indignation runs rampant in the appraisal profession and I worry it is leading to our demise as an industry.

Take the case of Mike Lefebvre, a Realtor in Massachusetts, who also happens to have an appraisal background.

There are many appraisers who were originally real estate agents and in fact, I believe there are still states that require appraisers to have a real estate sales person’s license in order to get their appraiser license.

Mike has an interesting approach to getting a listing. He performs an appraisal on a potential listing rather than a broker market analysis (BMA) because it is more detailed and helps him properly price the property. He uses that appraisal as part of his marketing effort. In many ways, he is being more professional as an agent by providing a more thorough analysis for his clients than a BMA affords.

Since pitching a listing is not a federally related transaction and he discloses (and it is apparent) that he has a vested interest in the eventual transaction by the fact he is an agent paid on commission, I don’t see this being a problem or a violation of USPAP.

Of course, I would love another perspective on this.

However, I often see more seasoned appraisers make a habit of needlessly scaring clients, banks and agents by using USPAP as a grey fogging tool…almost like the way a consumer feels reading an insurance policy…it is something so confusing that it is not meant to be understood, except by appraisers.

And THAT, in my humble opinion, is one of the things that is killing the appraisal profession. USPAP was in place during the housing boom so it is apparent that this standard alone is not the panacea of the lending industry. Create so much confusion that you motivate the industry to find alternatives.

Others see it differently, and this email is the inspiration for this post.

Mike forwarded me an email sent by an appraiser. I am not familiar with him but he appears to be well-qualified as an appraiser in his market judging from his web site. I’ll even assume he is a good appraiser and a nice person.

The appraiser was “sickened by Mike’s performance of an appraisal on each of his listings to more accurately price the property and alludes to connecting him to bank fraud (the irony is that USPAP clearly forbids appraisers to mislead their readers, which this email is treading awfully close to that, no?):

From: [kept anonymous]
Date: June 6, 2008 10:07:42 PM EDT
To: mlefebvre @verizon.net
Subject: Re: Inquiry About 30 Jefferson Road, Franklin, MA – why would you bias yourself like this? Ever hear of USPAP?

You do understand that when you do an Appraisal you must adhere to USPAP including “I have no present or prospective interest in the property that is the subject of this report…..”

How can you do an Appraisal on a property you list, this is sickening to see.

Do you know what constitutes acceptable versus unacceptable business practices? This is required in all 50 States. Follow this link…

Giving a comp check without an Appraisal IS BANK FRAUD.

Ethics? Do you understand them? Follow this link to learn more about what an Appraiser is required to do and what not to do.

In addition to our Appraisal services we can also offer sessions for your office on how to be compliant with USPAP.

We “VALUE” your business! Specializing in honest and accurate results!

[deleted content to keep anonymous]

“Think about USPAP and how to follow it now, or you may get a long time to think about it in prison later.”

“People only think USPAP Requirements are stupid until they are caught and punished for not following them.”

I think having USPAP is a good thing, a necessary thing. The fact that the lending industry went to hell in a handbasket isn’t because every appraiser didn’t follow USPAP. The problem is much bigger than that.

We all need standards to live by and the public needs to have comfort that when they order an appraisal, they understand what they are being provided. If an appraiser has a potential conflict, it must be fully disclosed.

I also think this sort of threatening message is self-serving and shouldn’t be tolerated either. You don’t use USPAP as a weapon to create mass hysteria in the public domain as a way to generate business. That makes the profession look even worse than it already does.

Good grief.

Here’s Mike’s post on the subject.

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[Squeaking By] Somehow It All Comes Back To Appraisals

July 15, 2008 | 10:59 am | | Radio |

“The appraisal industry is the lubricant of the mortgage industry” …Inventor of WD40 (just kidding)

In addition to Soapbox which contains the terrific contributions of my appraisal colleagues, appraising has made its presence known on our other blog Matrix via the current turmoil in the lending/mortgage industry.

[Other Shoe Drops Department] IndyMac Needed Appraisals Done Before Judgement Day

[In The Media] Real Estate Radio USA Appraisals & Bits

[In The Media] 4Realz Roundtable On Appraisals Cuomo/GSE Agreement For 1-1-09

UPDATE

[Subprime Truth In Lending] From A To Regulation Z


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#Housing analyst, #realestate, #appraiser, podcaster/blogger, non-economist, Miller Samuel CEO, family man, maker of snow and lobster fisherman (order varies)
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