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The Gamblers Say No Bubble, But Can’t Pick Superbowl Anymore

David Leonhardt’s article today about Online Betters [1] was quite good. Using the odds fleshed out by online traders, you could have:

The NYT article says that online gamblers see no sign of a housing bubble anytime soon…

poker [2]

Not sure I want to rely on this as a way to get comfortable with the real estate economy but it is tempting. One could argue that the recent poker craze [3], is a sign of speculative environment.

Then we get into predicting presidential elections..
2004 Predicting a Bush Victory [4] [The Formula] [5]

Using the Superbowl…

footballillustrated [6] This brings to mind Superbowl predictors of presidential elections called The Superbowl Effect:

2000 It’s Redskins vs. the markets in the presidential race [7]
1996 NFL Index Predicts Super Year For Stocks [8]