- Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers & Consultants - https://www.millersamuel.com -

The Housing “Turning a Corner” Concept: On A Matrix

There is a lot of discussion about when housing is going to turn around yet it looks like housing in this cycle is going to trail the economy rather than lead it because credit is not placing housing in the hands of the consumer.

Here is a terrifically interactive graphic [1] a la NYTimes.com/Business with a 4-quadrant matrix based on data compiled by NYT from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (O.E.C.D.); Federal Reserve; National Bureau of Economic Research; Conference Board.

As you watch the time series, the current year shows the sharpest downturn since the mid 1970s when the data series begins. In other words it is hard to imagine we are nearly out of the downturn quadrant.

Here’s the OECD Business Cycle Clock [2].