In 2009, Im going to try to get my Three Cents Worth groove back and return to active duty on Curbed, at the intersection of neighborhood and real estate.
I also was assured by Curbed staff that I really am (they actually swore at to this) a tenured professor of appraisal economics at Curbed University — credentials that get me into very high level government meetings — to sweep and mop.
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I hope that devoting more time to Curbed isn’t code for spending less time discussing the frailties of appraising, but if it is then I’m sure you will be missed.
In reading the chart you produced I see a connection between less money supply (termed “Mortgage Loan Standards”), and steep declines in prices. Is it safe to say the mortgage lenders have an enormous influence on the price of residential properties when they tighten underwriting and that tightening is the exception?
Has Miller Cicero produced a similar visual for commercial real estate?
Also interesting to note the Mortgage Loan Standards seem to lag declining prices. And then may even grease the slide.
More questions:
What is the source(s) of the price data and how it is adjusted for CPI?
Can you please add NY inventories in each category and unemployment %s to the chart or provide me the data?
As it is the chart demonstrates interesting relationships, but I’m still stuck with which came first the chicken or egg?
In fact, without reading more than the data I could make an argument that price declines precipitate tightening in underwriting. And tightening underwriting greases the slide.
So what prods the price declines?